3.6.1 kufunsa

Mu kufunsa kupindulitsa, kufufuza deta kumapangitsanso nkhani kuzungulira gwero lalikulu la deta lomwe lili ndi zofunikira zofunika koma osasowa ena.

Njira imodzi yosonkhanitsira deta ndi deta zazikulu zopezeka ndi ndondomeko yomwe ndikuyitanitsa kufunsa . Mu kufunsa kupindulitsa, gwero lalikulu la deta liri ndi miyezo yofunikira koma ilibe zoyezera zina kotero kuti kafukufuku akupeza miyesoyi ikusowa mu kufufuza ndikugwirizanitsa zigawo ziwiri za deta pamodzi. Chitsanzo chimodzi cha kupindulitsa kufunsa ndi phunziro la Burke and Kraut (2014) za momwe kuyanjana pa Facebook kumawonjezera mphamvu za ubwenzi, zomwe ndalongosola mu gawo 3.2). Zikatero, Burke ndi Kraut adagwirizanitsa deta ndi ma Facebook log data.

Nthawi yomwe Burke ndi Kraut anali kugwira ntchito, adatanthawuza kuti sadayenera kuthana ndi mavuto akuluakulu omwe ochita kafukufuku amapindula pofunsa kuti awonongeke. Choyamba, kwenikweni kulumikizana palimodzi pamasom'pamodzi a deta, ndondomeko yotchedwa kuyanjana kwa mbiri , ikhoza kukhala kovuta ngati palibe chizindikiro chodziwika pazinthu zonse zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito kuti zitsimikizire kuti mbiri yoyenera mu deta imodzi ikugwirizana ndi zolemba zoyenera mu dataset ina. Vuto lalikulu lachiwiri pakufunsidwa kwabwino ndikuti khalidwe la deta lalikulu lidzakhala lovuta kwa ofufuza kufufuza chifukwa njira yomwe deta imalengedwera ingakhale yothandizira ndipo ingakhale yotengeka ndi mavuto ambiri omwe ali mu chaputala 2. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kupindulitsa kufunsa kumaphatikizapo kugwirizanitsa zolakwika za zofufuza kuzipangizo zamtundu wakuda wa khalidwe losadziwika. Ngakhale kuti pali mavutowa, komabe kuonjezera kufunsa kungagwiritsidwe ntchito pofufuza zofunikira, monga momwe Stefano Ansolabehere ndi Eitan Hersh (2012) anawonetsera pofufuza kwawo pa mavoti ku United States.

Kuchita masewera olimbitsa thupi kwakhala kofufuza kafukufuku wambiri pa sayansi ya ndale, ndipo, m'mbuyomu, omvetsa kafukufuku amavotere ndi chifukwa chake kawirikawiri akhala akugwiritsidwa ntchito pofufuza kafukufuku wafukufuku. Kuvota ku United States, komabe, ndi khalidwe losadziwika kuti boma limalemba ngati nzika iliyonse idavota (ndithudi, boma silinalembedwe kuti nzika iliyonse ikuvotera). Kwa zaka zambiri, ziwerengero za boma zavota zinalipo pamapepala a mapepala, omwazikana m'maofesi osiyanasiyana a boma. Izi zinapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta, koma zosatheka, kuti asayansi azitha kukhala ndi chithunzi chokwanira cha osankhidwa ndi kuyerekeza zomwe anthu akunena mu kufufuza za kuvota ndi khalidwe lawo lovota (Ansolabehere and Hersh 2012) .

Koma mavoti awa akuvoteredwa tsopano, ndipo makampani ena apadera adasonkhanitsa pamodzi ndikusonkhanitsa kuti apange mafayilo akuluakulu ovota omwe ali ndi khalidwe lovota la onse a ku America. Ansolabehere ndi Hersh adagwirizana ndi ena mwa makampaniwa-Catalist LCC-kuti agwiritse ntchito fayilo yawo yoyenera kuvota kuti athandize kukhala ndi chithunzi chabwino cha osankhidwa. Komanso, chifukwa kuphunzira kwawo kunadalira zolemba za digito zomwe zinasonkhanitsidwa ndi kuyang'aniridwa ndi kampani yomwe idapatsa ndalama zowonongeka pa kusonkhanitsa deta ndi kugwirizana, izo zinapereka ubwino wambiri pa zoyesayesa zapitazo zomwe zakhala zikuchitidwa popanda kuthandizidwa ndi makampani ndi kugwiritsa ntchito zolemba za analog.

Mofanana ndi magulu akuluakulu a deta m'chaputala chachiwiri, fayilo ya chidziwitso cha Catalist sizinaphatikizepo zambiri za chiwerengero cha anthu, makhalidwe, ndi makhalidwe omwe Ansolabehere ndi Hersh amafunikira. Ndipotu, iwo anali ndi chidwi kwambiri poyerekeza khalidwe lovomerezeka la voti mu kufufuza ndi khalidwe lovomerezeka lavota (mwachitsanzo, chidziwitso chachinsinsi cha Catalist). Choncho Ansolabehere ndi Hersh adasonkhanitsa deta yomwe adafuna kuti ayambe kufufuza zambiri, CCES, yomwe yatchulidwa koyambirira m'mutu uno. Kenaka adapereka deta yawo ku Catalist, ndipo chiCatalist chinawabwezeretsanso mafayilo a deta omwe anaphatikizidwa omwe anali ndi khalidwe lovomerezeka (kuchokera ku Catalist), khalidwe lovotera (kuchokera ku CCES) komanso chiwerengero cha anthu omwe anafunsidwa (kuchokera ku CCES) (chiwerengero 3.13). Mwa kuyankhula kwina, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh kuphatikizapo chiwerengero cha mavoti ovota ndi deta yafukufuku kuti apange kufufuza zomwe sizingatheke ndi chitsimikizo cha deta payekha.

Chithunzi 3.13: Kusintha kwa phunziroli ndi Ansolabehere and Hersh (2012) . Pogwiritsa ntchito deta ya data, Chilatista chimagwirizanitsa komanso chimagwirizanitsa chidziwitso kuchokera ku magwero osiyanasiyana. Ndondomekoyi yolumikizana, mosasamala kanthu za momwe mungasamalire, idzafalitsa zolakwika m'mabuku oyambirira a deta ndipo idzakhazikitsa zolakwika zatsopano. Chinthu chachiwiri cha zolakwika ndi kugwirizanitsa mauthenga pakati pa deta ya data ndi master datafile. Ngati munthu aliyense ali ndi chidziwitso chokhazikika, chodziwika pazomwe zimayambira, ndiye kuti kulumikizana kungakhale kopanda phindu. Koma, chiCatalist chinkayenera kuyanjanitsa pogwiritsira ntchito zizindikiritso zopanda ungwiro, pamutu uwu dzina, chikhalidwe, chaka cha kubadwa, ndi adiresi ya kunyumba. Mwamwayi, nthawi zambiri pamakhala zidziwitso kapena zosamveka; Homer Simpson wovota angaoneke ngati Homer Jay Simpson, Homie J Simpson, kapena Homer Sampsin. Ngakhale kuti zingakhale zolakwika mu Catalist master datafile ndi zolakwika mu kulembanirana, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh adatha kulimbitsa malingaliro awo kupyolera mu mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ma cheke.

Ndi mafayilo awo ophatikizana, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh anafika pa mfundo zitatu zofunika. Choyamba, kufotokoza zambiri za kuvota kukufalikira: pafupifupi theka la osvotere adavomereza kuvota, ndipo ngati wina atero kuvota, ali ndi mwayi wokwana 80% wokha kuti avotere. Chachiwiri, kufotokozera malire sikuchitika mosavuta: kufotokozera malipoti kumakhala kofala kwambiri pakati pa anthu omwe ali ndi ndalama zambiri, ophunzitsidwa bwino, apakati omwe akugwira nawo ntchito. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, anthu omwe amavotera nawo amatha kunena zabodza ponena za kuvota. Chachitatu, ndipo makamaka, chifukwa cha kufotokozera kwambiri, kusiyana kwenikweni pakati pa ovota ndi osasankha ndi ochepa kuposa momwe amachitira pofufuza. Mwachitsanzo, omwe ali ndi digiri ya bachelor ali ndi magawo makumi awiri ndi awiri (22%) omwe amatha kufotokoza voti, koma ndi 10 peresenti yokha yomwe ikuwonekeratu. Izi zikuchitika, mwinamwake n'zosadabwitsa kuti mfundo zomwe zilipo kale zokhudzana ndi kuvota zili bwino kwambiri poti ndi ndani yemwe anganene kuti avotere (zomwe ndizo zomwe akatswiri akhala akugwiritsa ntchito kale) kuposa momwe akudziŵira omwe akuvota. Motero, kupeza mwaufulu kwa Ansolabehere and Hersh (2012) kukuyitanitsa ziphunzitso zatsopano kuti mumvetsetse ndi kubvomereze kuti muvotere.

Koma kodi tiyenera kukhulupilira zotsatira zotani? Kumbukirani, zotsatira izi zimadalira pa zolakwika zomwe zimagwirizanitsa ndi deta yamabuku akuda ndi zolakwika zosadziwika. Zowonjezereka, zotsatirazi zili ndizinthu ziwiri zofunika: (1) kuthekera kwa Chikatalisti kuphatikizapo magulu ambiri osiyana siyana a deta kuti apange deta yolondola yolondola komanso (2) kuthekera kwa Chikatalisti kugwirizanitsa deta yolongosola ku deta yake ya data. Zonsezi ndi zovuta, ndipo zolakwika pazochitika zonse zingathe kutsogolera ochita kafukufuku olakwika. Komabe, kugwirizanitsa deta ndi kugwirizana ndizofunikira kwambiri kuti pakhalebe Chikatalist monga kampani, kotero ikhoza kugulitsa ndalama zothetsera mavutowa, nthawi zambiri pamlingo womwe palibe wofufuza wofufuza angagwirizanitse. Papepala lawo, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh amapitilirapo masitepe angapo kuti awonetse zotsatira zazitsulo ziwirizi-ngakhale kuti ena a iwo ali ndi chilolezo-ndipo ma checkswa angakhale othandiza kwa ena ofufuza omwe akufuna kulumikiza deta yofufuza ku deta yaikulu magwero.

Kodi maphunziro omwe akufukufuku angaphunzire kuchokera ku phunziroli ndi ati? Choyamba, pali phindu lalikulu ponse pakupangira zidziwitso zazikulu za deta ndi deta yolongosola komanso kuchokera ku deta yowunikira kwambiri ndi magulu akuluakulu a deta (mukhoza kuona phunziro ili kapena njira). Pogwiritsa ntchito magwero awiriwa, ochita kafukufuku anatha kuchita chinachake chomwe sichinali chosatheka. Phunziro lachiwiri lachiwiri ndiloti ngakhale palimodzi, magwero a zamalonda, monga deta kuchokera ku Catalist, sayenera kuonedwa ngati "choonadi cha pansi," nthawi zina angakhale othandiza. Otsutsa nthawi zina amafanizitsa gwero lonse la deta, lachinsinsi ndi Choonadi chenicheni ndikuwonetsa kuti magwero awa a deta akuchepa. Komabe, pakadali pano, okayikira akupanga kufananitsa kolakwika: deta yonse yomwe ochita kafukufuku amagwiritsa ntchito sagwirizana ndi Chowonadi Chowonadi. M'malo mwake, ndibwino kuyerekezera magulu osiyanasiyana a deta ndi magetsi ena omwe alipo (mwachitsanzo, khalidwe lovomerezeka lavotere), lomwe nthawi zonse liri ndi zolakwika. Pomaliza, phunziro lachitatu la kafukufuku wa Ansolabehere ndi Hersh ndikuti nthawi zina, ofufuza angapindule ndi ndalama zambiri zomwe makampani ambiri akupanga pokonzekera ndikugwirizanitsa zovuta zokhudzana ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu.