3.6.2 Amplified 3.6.2

Amplified asking poyesa kugwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo cholingalira kuti aphatikize deta yolongosoka kuchokera kwa anthu ochepa omwe ali ndi gwero lalikulu la deta kuchokera kwa anthu ambiri.

Njira yowonjezera yogwirizanitsa kafukufuku ndi magwero akuluakulu a deta ndi ndondomeko yomwe ndikuyitanitsa kufunsa . Powonjezera pempho ndikufunsa, wofufuza amagwiritsa ntchito njira yowonongeka kuti aphatikize deta yochepa yofufuza ndi deta yaikulu ya deta kuti apange kulingalira pamtunda kapena kapangidwe komwe sikungatheke ndi deta iliyonse payekha. Chitsanzo chofunika cholimbikitsidwa kufunsa chikuchokera ku ntchito ya Joshua Blumenstock, yemwe amafuna kupeza deta yomwe ingathandize kuthandizira chitukuko m'mayiko osauka. M'mbuyomu, ofufuza omwe anasonkhanitsa deta yamtunduwu nthawi zambiri amayenera kutenga njira imodzi: njira zofufuzira kapena zofufuzira. Zotsatira za kafukufuku, kumene ochita kafukufuku amafunsa anthu ang'onoang'ono, amatha kusintha, nthawi yake, komanso otsika mtengo. Komabe, kafukufukuwa, chifukwa chakuti amachokera ku chitsanzo, nthawi zambiri amakhala ochepa pamaganizo awo. Ndi kafukufuku wa kafukufuku, nthawi zambiri zimakhala zovuta kupanga zowerengera za madera ena enieni kapena magulu ena. Kufufuzanso, kumbali ina, kuyesa kufunsa aliyense, kotero kuti akhoza kugwiritsidwa ntchito kupanga zowerengera za madera aang'ono kapena magulu a anthu. Koma zofufuzira nthawi zambiri zimakhala zodula, zopepuka (zimangophatikizapo zing'onozing'ono za mafunso), osati panthawi yake (zimachitika panthawi yake, monga zaka 10) (Kish 1979) . M'malo mokhala ndi zofukufuku kapena zofukiza, ganizirani ngati ochita kafukufuku angagwirizanitse makhalidwe abwino onsewa. Tangoganizani ngati ofufuza angafunse funso lililonse kwa munthu aliyense tsiku ndi tsiku. Mwachiwonekere, izi zodziŵika bwino, kafukufuku nthawi zonse ndi mtundu wa malingaliro a chikhalidwe cha anthu. Koma Kodi zikuoneka kuti Tikhoza kuyandikira izi ndi kaphatikizidwe mafunso kafukufuku kwa ochepa a anthu ndi kuda digito anthu ambiri.

Kafukufuku wa Blumenstock adayamba pamene adayanjana ndi wothandizira mafoni akuluakulu ku Rwanda, ndipo kampaniyo inalembetsa zolemba zogula ntchito kuchokera kwa makasitomala pafupifupi 1.5 miliyoni pakati pa 2005 ndi 2009. Mabukuwa ali ndi mauthenga okhudza maitanidwe ndi mauthenga monga nthawi yoyamba, nthawi , ndi malo akufupi a woyitana ndi wolandira. Ndisanalankhule za ziwerengerozi, ndibwino kuti ndikuwonetsetse kuti sitepe yoyamba ikhoza kukhala imodzi mwa ovuta kwambiri kwa ofufuza ambiri. Monga momwe ndanenera mu chaputala chachiwiri, zowonjezera zazikulu zopezeka deta sizingatheke kwa ofufuza. Manambala a telefoni, makamaka, amalephereka kwambiri chifukwa ndizosatheka kufotokoza mwatsatanetsatane ndipo mwachidziwikire muli ndi mfundo zomwe ophunzira angaganizire zovuta (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Pachifukwa ichi, ochita kafukufukuyu anali osamala kuteteza deta ndipo ntchito yawo inali kuyang'aniridwa ndi munthu wina (ie, IRB yawo). Ndidzabwereranso kuzinthu zokhudzana ndi chikhalidwechi mu chaputala 6.

Blumenstock anali ndi chidwi choyesa chuma ndi ubwino. Koma makhalidwe amenewa sali mwachindunji m'makalata oitanira. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, ma rekodi awa ndi osakwanira pa kafukufukuyu-chinthu chodziwika bwino pazinthu zazikulu za deta zomwe zinakambidwa mwatsatanetsatane mu chaputala 2. Komabe, zikuwoneka kuti mayina oitanidwawo mwina ali ndi chidziwitso chomwe chingawononge mwachindunji zokhudzana ndi chuma ndi ubwino. Chifukwa cha izi, Blumenstock anafunsa ngati n'zotheka kuphunzitsa njira yophunzirira makina kuti adziwe mmene wina angayankhire pa kafukufuku wochokera pa zolemba zawo. Ngati izi zingatheke, Blumenstock angagwiritse ntchito chitsanzochi kuti adziwe momwe mayankho onse omwe amawonera makasitomala amachitira 1.5 miliyoni.

Pofuna kumanga ndi kuphunzitsa chitsanzochi, Blumenstock ndi othandizira ofufuza kuchokera ku Kigali Institute of Science ndi Technology akuyesa chitsanzo chosavuta cha makasitomala chikwi. Ofufuzawa anafotokoza zolinga za polojekiti kwa ophunzirawo, anapempha kuti avomereze kugwirizanitsa mayankho a kafukufuku pamakalata oitanira mafoni, ndipo adawafunsa mafunso angapo kuti awononge chuma chawo ndi moyo wawo, monga "Kodi muli ndi radiyo? "ndi" Kodi muli ndi njinga? "(onani chithunzi 3.14 pa mndandanda wa tsankho). Onse omwe adachita nawo kafukufuku adalipidwa ndalama.

Kenako, Blumenstock anagwiritsa ntchito njira ziwiri zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga makina. Choyamba, mu gawo la engineering engineering , kwa aliyense yemwe anafunsidwa, Blumenstock anamasulira maulendo oitanira ku zida za munthu aliyense; deta asayansi angatchule makhalidwe awa "zigawo" komanso asayansi amtundu wa anthu angati ndi "zosintha." Mwachitsanzo, kwa munthu aliyense, Blumenstock anawerengetsera masiku onse ndi ntchito, chiwerengero cha anthu osiyana omwe munthu wapezeka nawo, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pa nthawi ya mpweya, ndi zina zotero. Mwachidziwitso, ubwino wabwino umapanga chidziwitso pa malo ofufuza. Mwachitsanzo, ngati kuli kofunika kusiyanitsa pakati pa ma foni ndi maiko akunja (tikhoza kuyembekezera kuti anthu omwe akuyitana padziko lonse kuti akhale olemera), ndiye izi ziyenera kuchitika pa sitepe ya engineering engineering. Wofufuza yemwe sadziwa zambiri za Rwanda sangaphatikizepo mbaliyi, ndipo zotsatira zowonongeka za chitsanzozo zidzasokonekera.

Kenako, mu ankaonetsetsa kuphunzira sitepe, Blumenstock anamanga chitsanzo kulosera yankho kafukufuku munthu aliyense zochokera zizindikiro zawo. Pachifukwa ichi, Blumenstock amagwiritsa ntchito njira yothetsera mavuto, koma akadatha kugwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zowerengera kapena makina.

Kotero izo zinagwira ntchito bwino motani? Blumenstock inatha kufotokoza mayankho a mafunso ngati "Kodi muli ndi wailesi?" Ndi "Kodi muli ndi njinga?" Pogwiritsira ntchito zida zochokera ku zolemba za foni? Blumenstock anagwiritsa ntchito njira yovomerezeka , njira yomwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga sayansi koma nthawi zambiri samasayansi. Cholinga cha kutsimikiziridwa ndi kupereka kafukufuku woyenerera wa ntchito yoyenera kutsogolo mwa kuphunzitsidwa ndi kuyesa pazithunzi zosiyanasiyana. Makamaka, Blumenstock anagawa deta yake mu 10 zigawo khumi za anthu 100. Kenaka, adagwiritsa ntchito zida zisanu ndi zinayi kuti aphunzitse chitsanzo chake, ndipo kuwonetseratu koyambirira kwa mtundu wophunzitsidwayo kunayesedwa pa otsala otsala. Anabwereza njirayi nthawi 10-ndichinthu chilichonse cha deta kuti wina atembenuke ngati zotsatira zake-komanso zotsatira zake.

Kulondola kwa maulosi kunali kwakukulu kwa zikhalidwe zina (chithunzi 3.14); Mwachitsanzo, Blumenstock akhoza kuneneratu ndi 97.6% molondola ngati wina ali ndi radiyo. Izi zingamveke zodabwitsa, koma nthawi zonse ndizofunika kuyerekezera njira yowonongeka yovuta potsata njira zophweka. Pachifukwa ichi, njira ina yosavuta ndikulingalira kuti aliyense adzapereka yankho lofala kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, 97,3% mwa anthu omwe anafunsidwawo adanena kuti anali ndi radiyo ngati Blumenstock adalosera kuti aliyense adzadziwe kukhala ndi radiyo akanakhala ndi chiwerengero cha 97.3%, zomwe ziri zodabwitsa mofanana ndi momwe amachitira zovuta zake (97.6% molondola) . Mwa kuyankhula kwina, deta yonse yodabwitsa ndi kuwonetsera kuwonjezereka kolondola kwa maulosi kuyambira 97.3% kufika 97.6%. Komabe, pa mafunso ena, monga "Kodi muli ndi njinga?", Maulosiwo amayamba kuchokera 54.4% kufika 67.6%. Zowonjezereka, chiwerengero cha 3.15 chimasonyeza kuti pazinthu zina Blumenstock sizinapangitse zambiri kuposa kungowonongeka, koma kuti pazinthu zina panali kusintha. Poyang'ana pa zotsatirazi, komabe simungaganize kuti njirayi ndi yodalirika kwambiri.

Chithunzi 3.14: Kulondola kwachindunji kwa chitsanzo cha chiwerengero chophunzitsidwa ndi mayina oitanira. Kuchokera ku Blumenstock (2014) , pulogalamu 2.

Chithunzi 3.15: Kuyerekeza kulondola kwachindunji kwa chitsanzo chowerengera chomwe chinaphunzitsidwa ndi mauthenga oitanira ku zolembera zosavuta. Mfundo zimakhala zochepa kuti zisagwirizane. Kuchokera ku Blumenstock (2014) , pulogalamu 2.

Komabe, patapita chaka chimodzi, Blumenstock ndi anzake awiri-Gabriel Cadamuro ndi Robert On-adafalitsa pepala la Sayansi lomwe lili ndi zotsatira zabwino kwambiri (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Panali zifukwa zikuluzikulu ziwiri zowonjezera izi: (1) adagwiritsa ntchito njira zowonjezereka (ie, njira yatsopano yogwiritsira ntchito zamisiri ndi njira yowonjezereka yowonetsera mayankho kuchokera ku zinthu) ndi (2) m'malo moyesera kupereka mayankho kwa munthu aliyense mafunso ofufuza (mwachitsanzo, "Kodi muli ndi radiyo?"), adayesa kupereka ndondomeko ya chuma. Kukonzekera kwamakono kumeneku kunatanthawuza kuti angathe kuchita ntchito yabwino yogwiritsa ntchito mauthenga oitanira maulendo kuti adziŵe chuma cha anthu mu chitsanzo chawo.

Kulongosola za chuma cha anthu mu chitsanzo, komabe, sichinali cholinga chachikulu cha kafukufuku. Kumbukirani kuti cholinga chachikulu chinali kuphatikizapo zina mwazofukufuku zowonongeka ndi zofufuzira kuti ziwonetsetse chiwerengero chenicheni cha umphawi m'mayiko osauka. Kuti azindikire kuthekera kwawo kukwaniritsa cholinga ichi, Blumenstock ndi anzake amagwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chawo ndi deta zawo kuti adziŵe chuma cha anthu 1.5 miliyoni m'mabuku oyitanira. Ndipo iwo amagwiritsira ntchito mauthenga a geospatial omwe ali mu zolembera zoimbira (kumbukirani kuti detayi ikuphatikizapo malo omwe ali pafupi ndi nsanja ya foni iliyonse) kuti azindikire malo okhalamo a munthu aliyense (Chithunzi 3.17). Kuika chiwerengerochi pamodzi, Blumenstock ndi anzake amapanga chiwerengero cha kugawidwa kwa chuma cha olembetsa pa malo abwino kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, amatha kulingalira kuti chuma chonse chili mu 2,148 maselo a Rwanda (ofesi yaing'ono kwambiri yolamulira m'dzikoli).

Kodi ziwerengero izi zikugwirizana bwanji ndi umphawi weniweni m'madera awa? Ndisanayankhe funsoli, ndikufuna kutsindika mfundo yakuti pali zifukwa zambiri zokhala ndi kukayikira. Mwachitsanzo, kuthekera kwa kuneneratu pamsinkhu uliwonse kunali phokoso lokongola (Chithunzi 3.17). Ndipo, makamaka chofunika kwambiri, anthu okhala ndi mafoni a m'manja akhoza kukhala osiyana kwambiri ndi anthu opanda mafoni a m'manja. Motero, Blumenstock ndi anzako amatha kuvutika ndi mitundu yolakwika yomwe yanyalanyazidwa pofufuza mu 1936 Literary Digest yomwe ndayimayo kale.

Kuti azindikire momwe amawerengera, Blumenstock ndi anzake akufunika kuti aziwayerekeza ndi zina. Mwamwayi, panthawi imodzimodzimodzi ndi phunziro lawo, gulu lina la kafukufuku linkachita kafukufuku wamakhalidwe ambiri ku Rwanda. Kafukufuku wina-omwe anali mbali ya pulogalamu yolemekezeka ya Demographic and Health - anali ndi bajeti yaikulu ndipo amagwiritsira ntchito njira zamakono, zachikhalidwe. Choncho, kuyerekezera kwa chiwerengero cha Demographic ndi Health Survey kungakhale kotheka kulingalira ngati ndondomeko ya golide. Pamene ziwerengero ziwirizo zinkafanizidwa, zinali zofanana (chifaniziro 3.17). Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mwa kuphatikizapo deta yochepa ya kafukufuku ndi zolembera zoimbira, Blumenstock ndi anzako amatha kupanga zowerengera zofanana ndi zomwe zimachokera ku golide-njira zoyenera.

Wokayikira angawone zotsatira izi ngati zokhumudwitsa. Ndiponsotu, njira imodzi yowawonera ndiyo kunena kuti pogwiritsa ntchito deta yaikulu ndi kuphunzira makina, Blumenstock ndi anzako amatha kupanga zowerengera zomwe zingapangidwe motsimikizika ndi njira zomwe zili kale. Koma sindikuganiza kuti iyi ndiyo njira yabwino yolingalira za phunziro ili pa zifukwa ziwiri. Choyamba, chiwerengero cha Blumenstock ndi anzake chinali mofulumira katatu ndipo nthawi 50 mtengo wake (pamene mtengo umayesedwa malinga ndi kusintha kwake). Monga ndanenera kale chaputala chino, ofufuza amanyalanyaza mtengo wawo pangozi yawo. Pachifukwa ichi, kuchepetsa kwakukulu kwa ndalama kumatanthauza kuti m'malo moyendetsa zaka zingapo-monga momwe zilili pa kafukufuku wa Demographic ndi Health - kafukufuku wamtundu uwu akhoza kuyendetsedwa mwezi uliwonse, umene ungapereke ubwino wambiri kwa ofufuza ndi ndondomeko opanga. Chifukwa chachiwiri choti musamangokhulupirira maganizo anu ndikuti phunziroli limapereka njira yowonjezera yomwe ingagwirizane ndi zochitika zosiyanasiyana zofufuza. Chinsinsichi chili ndi zigawo ziwiri zokha komanso masitepe awiri. Zosakaniza ndi (1) gwero lalikulu la deta lomwe liri lalikulu koma lochepa (mwachitsanzo, liri ndi anthu ambiri koma osati luso lomwe mukufunikira ponena za munthu aliyense) ndi (2) kafukufuku omwe ndi ochepa koma olemera (ie, ali ndi kokha anthu ochepa, koma ali ndi chidziwitso chimene mukufunikira pa anthu amenewo). Zosakaniza izi ndizophatikizidwa mu magawo awiri. Choyamba, kwa anthu onse omwe akuchokera ku deta, pangani njira yophunzirira makina yomwe imagwiritsa ntchito gwero lalikulu la deta kuti liwoneretu mayankho a kafukufuku. Kenaka, gwiritsani ntchito chitsanzochi kuti muyankhe mayankho a mayankho a aliyense mu gwero lalikulu la deta. Choncho, ngati pali funso lomwe mukufuna kufunsa anthu ambiri, funani chitsimikizo chachikulu kuchokera kwa anthu omwe angagwiritsidwe ntchito kuti adziwiratu yankho lawo, ngakhale mutasamala za chitukuko chachikulu cha deta . Ndiko kuti, Blumenstock ndi anzako sankaganiziridwa mwachidwi ndi ma foni; iwo ankangosamala za ma foni ojambula chifukwa iwo angagwiritsidwe ntchito kufotokozera mayankho a kafukufuku amene iwo ankasamala nawo. Chidziwitso ichi-chokhacho chokhudzidwa ndi gwero lalikulu la deta-chimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kupempha zosiyana ndi kufunsa, zomwe ndanenapo kale.

Chithunzi 3.16: Kusintha kwa phunziro la Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Lembani zolemba kuchokera ku kampani ya foni yomwe inatembenuzidwa kukhala mzere wokhala ndi mzere umodzi kwa munthu aliyense ndi ndondomeko imodzi pambali iliyonse (ie, variable). Kenaka, ofufuza adapanga chitsanzo choyang'anira bwino kuti athe kufotokozera mayankho a kafukufukuwo kuchokera ku maonekedwe a munthu. Kenaka, chitsanzo chophunzitsira choyang'anira chinagwiritsidwa ntchito poyesa mayankho a kafukufuku kwa makasitomala 1.5 miliyoni. Komanso, ochita kafukufukuyu anayerekezera kuti malo ogona amakhala okwana 1.5 miliyoni ogula malingana ndi malo a maitanidwe awo. Pamene ziŵerengero ziwirizi-kuchuluka kwa chuma ndi malo omwe akukhalamo-ziphatikizidwa, zotsatira zake zinali zofanana ndi kuchuluka kwa kafukufuku wa zaumoyo ndi zaumoyo, kafukufuku wamakhalidwe a golide (chifaniziro 3.17).

Chithunzi 3.17: Zotsatira za Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Payekha payekha, ochita kafukufuku adatha kuchita ntchito yabwino pakulosera za chuma cha wina kuchokera ku zolemba zawo. Chiwerengero cha chuma cha chigawo cha chigawo ku madera 30 a Rwanda-omwe adakhazikitsidwa ndi chiwerengero cha chuma ndi malo okhalamo-anali ofanana ndi zotsatira za Demographic ndi Health Survey, kufufuza kachitidwe ka golide. Kuchokera ku Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , chiwerengero cha 1a ndi 3c.

Potsirizira pake, Blumenstock akulimbikitsidwa kupempha njira ikugwirizanitsa deta ndi deta yaikulu ya deta kuti apange chiwerengero chofanana ndi omwe akufufuza kafukufuku wa golide. Chitsanzo ichi chikufotokozeranso zina mwa malonda pakati pazowonjezera kufunsa ndi njira zoyendera kafukufuku. Zowonjezera kufunsa zowonjezera zinali zanthawi, zowonjezera mtengo, komanso zowonongeka. Koma, pambali inayo, sipanakhalebe maziko olimba a zongopeka za mtundu uwu. Chitsanzo chokhachi sichisonyeza pamene njirayi idzagwira ntchito komanso pamene idzafika, ndipo ochita kafukufuku akugwiritsa ntchito njirayi ayenera kudera nkhaŵa kwambiri ndi zosokonezeka zomwe zimayambitsa omwe ali nawo-ndi omwe sanaphatikizidwe-muzipangizo zawo zazikulu. Kuonjezerapo, kuwonjezera pempho pempholi kulibenso njira zabwino zoperekera kukayikira pazomwe zikuwerengedwa. Mwamwayi, kupititsa patsogolo kufunsa kumakhala kogwirizana kwambiri ndi zigawo zitatu zazikuluzikulu-zowerengera zazing'ono (Rao and Molina 2015) , kutengera (Rubin 2004) , ndi chitsanzo-based post-stratification (chomwe chiri chogwirizana kwambiri ndi Bambo P., njira yomwe ndayifotokoza kumayambiriro kwa mutuwu (Little 1993) . Chifukwa cha kugwirizana kwakukuluku, ndikuyembekeza kuti maziko ambiri omwe amaphatikizapo kufunsa akufuna posachedwapa.

Pomaliza, kuyerekezera zoyesayesa zoyamba ndi zachiwiri za Blumenstock zikuwonetsanso phunziro lofunika kwambiri pa kafukufuku wamagulu a zaka zam'chipatala: chiyambi si mapeto. Nthawi zambiri, njira yoyamba idzakhala yabwino koposa, koma ngati ochita kafukufuku akupitiriza kugwira ntchito, zinthu zikhoza kukhala bwino. Kawirikawiri, pofufuza njira zatsopano zopezera kafukufuku m'zaka zam'madera, ndikofunika kupanga mayeso awiri: (1) Izi zikugwira ntchito bwanji tsopano? ndipo (2) Izi zidzagwira bwino bwanji m'tsogolomu ngati dera la deta likusintha ndipo monga momwe asayansi amachitira chidwi kwambiri ndi vutoli? Ngakhale kuti ochita kafukufuku amaphunzitsidwa kuti ayambe kufufuza, yachiwiri ndi yofunika kwambiri.