Key:
[ , ] Berinsky me hoa (2012) E aro mātai ana Mechanical Turk i roto i tetahi wahi i te replicating toru ngā matarohia. Tārua te aronui mate anga whakamātau Āhia e Tversky and Kahneman (1981) . Mahi koutou hua ōrite Tversky me Kahneman o? Mahi koutou hua ōrite Berinsky me hoa? He aha-ki te ki tetahi mea-e e haapii ia tatou i tenei e pā ana ki te whakamahi i Mechanical Turk mō ngā rangahau?
[ , ] I roto i te pepa ahua arero-i roto i-paparinga ui ko e "Kia tatou ki te Whatiia Up," te kaimātai hinengaro pāpori Robert Cialdini, tetahi o nga kaituhi o Schultz et al. (2007) , i tuhituhi i paunga ia wawe i tona mahi ano te ahorangi, i roto i te wahi no te o te mau tamataraa e ia faaruru te mahi ngā āpure i roto i te ako (hinengaro) e te nuinga whakahaere ngā taiwhanga (Cialdini 2009) . A tai'oi te pepa o Cialdini, ka tuhituhi ia i te īmēra tohe ia ki anō tona break-ake i roto i te marama o te taea o ngā mamati. Whakamahia tauira motuhake o te rangahau e whakatutuki ana āwangawanga.
[ ] I roto i te tikanga ki te whakatau mehemea angitu iti tuatahi maukati-i roto i memeha ranei atu, van de Rijt me me hoa (2014) ka whakaurua ki ngā pūnaha rerekē e whā Kia meinga ai te angitu i runga i ngā kaiuru tīpako matapōkeretia, a ka whanganga i te pānga wā roa-o tenei angitu te noho. Ka taea e koe te whakaaro o te tahi atu ngā pūnaha i roto i nei e koe i taea e rere rite ngā? Te arotake i ēnei pūnaha i roto i ngā o ngā take o te uara pūtaiao, veuveuki algorithmic (kite Chapter 2), me matatika.
[ , ] Ka taea e te hua o te whakamātau whakawhirinaki i runga i nga kaiuru. Waihanga i tētahi whakamātau, me te ka rere i te reira i runga i Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) te whakamahi i ngā rautaki kimi rerekē e rua. Whakamātauria ki te tiki i te rautaki whakamātau me kimi kia ka rite rerekē rite taea nga hua. Hei tauira, i taea e koutou rautaki kimi kia ki te kimi whai wāhi i roto i te ata, me te ahiahi ranei ki te utu ngā kaiuru ki te utu nui, me te iti. Enei momo o ngā rerekētanga i roto i te rautaki kimi taea arahi ki harotoroto rerekē o ngā kaiuru, me te rerekē ngā putanga whakamātautau. Kia pehea te rerekē i o koutou hua tahuri atu? Eaha ta e whakakitea e pā ana ki te rere ngā i runga i MTurk?
[ , , , ] A feruri na i whakamahere koe i te ako aronganui contagion (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) . Whakamahia te hua i te ako observational mua e Kramer (2012) ki te whakatau i te maha o ngā kaiuru i roto i ia huru. e kore e ēnei rangahau e rua ōrite maitai na kia mohio ki te whakarārangi āta nga whakapae katoa e hanga e koe:
[ , , , ] Whakautua te pātai i runga, engari nui atu i te whakamahi i te ako observational mua e Kramer (2012) te whakamahi i te hua i te whakamātautau tūturu mua e Coviello et al. (2014) .
[ ] Rua Rijt et al. (2014) me te Margetts et al. (2011) e rua te mahi ngā e ako te tukanga o te iwi haina i te petihana. Whakatauritea te hoahoa me ngā kitenga o enei rangahau.
[ ] Dwyer, Maki, and Rothman (2015) whakahaeretia ngā mara e rua i runga i te hononga i waenganui i tikanga pāpori, me te whanonga proenvironmental. Tenei te te rāpopototanga o ratou pepa:
"Nahea whakamahia pūtaiao hinengaro kia ki whakatenatena whanonga proenvironmental? I roto i te rangahau e rua, wawaotanga hāngai i whakatairanga whanonga tiaki pūngao i roto i bathrooms tūmatanui te korenga i te awe o tikanga whakamārama, me te kawenga whaiaro. I roto i te Haapiiraa 1, rāwekeweke te tūnga marama (arā, i runga i atu ranei) i te aroaro o tomo te tangata he kaukau tūmatanui takoto kau, kïia te täkupu whakamārama mō taua tautuhinga. i tino pea atu ki te tahuri i te rama atu ki te he atu ratou, ka tomo ratou Kaiuru. I roto i te tuatapaparaa e 2, whakaurua he tu'unga atu i roto i i faaite te täkupu o tahuri atu te marama i te whakatakoto, engari kihai i kaiuru ratou kawenga mō te tahuri i te reira i runga i. whakaōrite fatongia Whaiaro te mana o tikanga pāpori i runga i te whanonga; ka kore he kaiuru kawenga mō te tahuri i runga i te marama, i iti te mana o te täkupu. Ēnei hua tohu pēhea te whakaahua tikanga, me te kawenga whaiaro kia whakahaere i te whai huatanga o wawao proenvironmental. "
A tai'oi to ratou pepa, me te hoahoa i te tukuruatanga o te ako 1.
[ , ] Te paturaa i runga i te pātai o mua, inaianei te kawe atu tou hoahoa.
[ ] Kua tautohetohe nui e pā ana ki ngā te whakamahi i ngā kaiuru haina i Amazon Mechanical Turk. I roto i te whakarara, i reira kua hoki kua nui tautohetohe e pā ana ki ngā te whakamahi i ngā kaiuru haina i taupori ākonga paetahi. Tuhia he manatu-page rua whakatairite me te rerekē i te Turkers me undergraduates rite kairangahau kaiuru. Me whakauru koutou rite te aparauraa o rua ngā take pūtaiao, me te logistical.
[ Pukapuka] Jim Manzi a whakakeke (2012) ko te introduction faahiahia ki te mana o te tamataraa i roto i te mahi. I roto i te pukapuka anairaa ia tenei kupu whakarite:
"Ko kotahi ahau i roto i te hui ki te poto pakihi pono, he kaimiriona whaiaro-hanga nei i te hohonu, understating pūmanawa o te kaha o ngā. pau tona kamupene rauemi tino ngana ana ki te waihanga whakaaturanga matapihi taonga nui e e kukume kiritaki me piki hoko, rite te whakaaro nui tikanga mea kia ratou. Tohunga āta whakamatauria hoahoa i muri hoahoa, a i roto i ngā wā arotake whakamātautau takitahi i runga i te wā o te tau i pupuri e whakaatu ana kahore pānga causal nui o ia hoahoa whakaatu hou i runga i te hoko. tutaki matua marketing me hokohoko whakahaere ki te Kaiwhakahaere Matua, ki te arotake i ēnei hua whakamātautau o mua i roto i te toto. I muri i tuku katoa o nga raraunga whakamātautau, faaoti ratou e ko te whakaaro nui tikanga e kore e ngā whakaaturanga he-taua matapihi peia hoko. Ratou mahi tūtohu i ki whakaiti i ngā utu me te kaha i roto i tenei rohe. Tenei tino faaite te kaha o te tamataraa ki te hurihia te whakaaro nui tikanga. Ko te pahonoraa a te tumu ohie: 'toku mutunga ko e kore e tino pai koutou kaihoahoa.' Tona otinga ko ki te whakapiki ake i kaha i roto i te hoahoa whakaatu taonga, a ki te tiki iwi hou ki te rave i te reira. " (Manzi 2012, 158–9)
E momo o mana ko te āwangawanga o te tumu?
[ ] Te paturaa i runga i te pātai o mua, whakaaro i koe i te hui i te wahi i kōrerohia nga hua o nga ngā. He aha e wha pātai e taea e koe ui, kotahi mō ia momo o te mana (tauanga, hanga, ā-, a waho)?
[ ] Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) e tuatapapa te pānga-tau e whitu o te wawaotanga whakaora wai whakaahuatia i roto i Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) (kite Figure 4.10). I roto i tenei pepa, rapu ano Bernedo me hoa ki matau i te huarahi i muri i te pānga mā te whakatairite i te whanonga o te whare e whai, a kihai i oho i muri i tukua te maimoatanga. E ko, te pakeke, tamata ratou ki te kite ranei pānga te maimoatanga te kāinga te whare ranei.
[ ] I roto i te whai-ake ki Schultz et al. (2007) , Schultz me hoa mahi he raupapa o toru ngā i runga i te pānga o tikanga whakamārama, me te aukati i runga i te whanonga taiao rerekē (tauera anō) i roto i te rua horopaki (he hotera me te vahi Timeshare) (Schultz, Khazian, and Zaleski 2008) .
[ ] I roto i te whakautu ki Schultz et al. (2007) , Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) ka rere te raupapa o ngā taiwhanga-rite ki te ako i te hoahoa o ngā pire hiko. Tenei te pehea whakaahua ratou i te reira i roto i te rāpopototanga:
"I roto i te whakamātautau e hāngai ana rangahau-, ka kite ia kaiuru he pire hiko hypothetical mō te utuafare ki te whakamahi hiko āhua tiketike, uhi mōhiohio e pā ana ki (te) te whakamahi o mua, (b) te whakataurite ki hoa, a (c) te whakamahi o mua ki taputapu raru. kite Kaiuru momo katoa mōhiohio i roto i te kotahi o toru ngā hōputu tae (he) tepu, (b) kauwhata pae, a (c) kauwhata icon. pūrongo tatou i runga i toru ngā kitenga matua. Tuatahi, ka mohio kiritaki ia momo o te hiko-whakamahi mōhiohio i te, i te aroaro te reira i roto i te tepu, pea no te mea te whakahaere te nuinga o nga tepu pānui ira ohie. Tuarua, he manakohanga me koronga ki te whakaora hiko te kaha mo te mōhiohio whakamahi hītori, motuhake o te hōputu. A toru, takitahi ki raro matatini pūngao i matau mōhiohio katoa iti. "
Rerekē te tahi atu rangahau whai-ake, te putanga matua o te pānga i roto i Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) korerotia te whanonga e kore whanonga tūturu. He aha e nga kaha me ngoikoretanga o tenei momo o te ako i roto i te hōtaka rangahau whānui whakatairanga pūngao penapena?
[ , ] Smith and Pell (2003) ko te Sapphire meta-tātaritanga o rangahau whakaatu te whai huatanga o parachutes. faaoti ratou:
"I ki he maha wawaotanga tikanga ki te ārai i te hauora kino, te whai huatanga o parachutes kua kore i raro ki te aro mātai pakari mā te whakamahi i randomized tamataraa whakahaere. Kua whakahē kaitautoko o hāngai rongoa taunakitanga te whakatamarikitanga o ngä mahinga arotakea mā te whakamahi i raraunga observational anake. whakaaro tatou e hua ai te katoa, ki te whakaritea nga tautohe tino tuwhena o hāngai rongoa taunakitanga ka whai wāhi i roto i te matapo rua, te mana randomized, placebo, crossover tamataraa o te hekerangi ".
Tuhia he op-ed e tika ana mō te nūpepa hunga pänui whānui, pērā i te New York Times, totohe ki te fetishization o taunakitanga whakamātautau. Whakarato tauwhāiti, tauira raima. Tīwhiri: Vakai hoki, Bothwell et al. (2016) me te Deaton (2010)
[ , , ] Difference-i roto i-rerekētanga estimators o te pānga maimoatanga e taea e atu pau atu rerekētanga-i roto i-toharite estimators. Tuhia he manatu ki he kaipūkaha i tiaki o te whakamātautau / B i te kamupene pāpāho pāpori tīmatanga-ake whakamārama i te uara o te huarahi rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga mō te rere i te whakamātau ipurangi. Me ngā te manatu he tauākī o te raruraru, etahi pūmanawa e pā ana ki te tikanga i raro i nei e faito i te Estimator rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga i te rerekētanga-i roto i-ware Estimator, me te ako whaihanga ohie.
[ , ] Gary Loveman ko te ahorangi i Harvard Business School i mua i te riroraa i te Tumu o Harrah o, tetahi o nga kamupene Casino nui i roto i te ao. A, no te neke ia ki Harrah o, ke Loveman te kamupene ki te hōtaka pepa-rite auau taiva e kohia moni rahi o te raraunga e pā ana ki te whanonga kiritaki. I te tihi o tenei pūnaha inenga tonu-ki, ka anga te kamupene rere ngā. Hei tauira, kia ratou rere i te whakamātautau ki te aromātai i te pānga o te coupon mo te po hotera free mō kiritaki ki te tauira petipeti motuhake. Tenei te pehea Loveman fakamatala'i te faufaa o te tamataraa ki ngā mahi pakihi rā o Harrah:
"Ko te rite kore koutou e whakararuraru i nga wahine, e kore koutou e tahae, a kua ka koe ki te whai i te rōpū mana. Ko tēnei ko tetahi o nga mea e taea e koe te ngaro to koutou mahi hoki i Harrah's-kore rere te rōpū mana. " (Manzi 2012, 146)
Tuhia he īmēra ki te kaimahi hou whakamārama he aha whakaaro Loveman e mea faufaa ki te whai i te rōpū mana. Me tamata koe ki te whakauru i tētahi tauira-rānei tūturu ranei i hanga ki runga-ki te faahoho'ai to koutou mata.
[ , ] Whāinga te whakamātau hou ki te whakatau tata i te pānga o te fariiraa i haamana'oraa karere kuputuhi i runga i werohanga hāpainga. 150 haumanu, ia ki 600 tūroro āhei, he pai ki te whai wāhi. He he utu i whakaritea o 100 tara mo ia whare hauora e hiahia ana koe ki te mahi ki, a utu reira 1 tāra mō ia karere kuputuhi e hiahia ana koe ki te unga. I tua atu, i tetahi haumanu e e mahi koe ki ka whanganga i te putanga (ahakoa riro te tangata he werohanga) mō te kore utu. Amo e koe he pūtea o 1000 tara.
[ , ] He raruraru nui ki ngā akoranga ipurangi he takanga; mutunga maha ngā ākonga e tīmata akoranga ake me te maturuturu puputu-waho. A feruri na e mahi koe i te turanga ako ipurangi, ka kua hanga he kaihoahoa i te tūāpapa he pae te ahunga whakamua ataata e whakaaro ia e āwhina ki te ārai ngā ākonga i maturuturu i roto i te akoranga. e hiahia ana koe ki te whakamatautau i te pānga o te ahunga whakamua pae i runga i ngā ākonga i roto i te akoranga pūtaiao pāpori tātai nui. I muri te whakatutuki i tetahi take matatika e ai ara i roto i te whakamātautau, koe me o koutou hoa whiwhi āwangawanga e kore ai te akoranga whai ngā ākonga nui ki reliably kitea te pānga o te ahunga whakamua pae. I roto i te tātaitanga i raro koutou e taea e amo i taua hawhe o nga ākonga, ka riro i te ahunga whakamua pae, me te hawhe e kore. I tua atu, ka taea e koe amo i te mea kahore he raweketia. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, ka taea e koe amo e anake pāngia kaiuru e ranei riro ratou i te maimoatanga mana ranei; E kore pai ratou e ranei riro te tahi atu iwi i te maimoatanga mana ranei (mo te whakamāramatanga atu ōkawa, kite Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 8). Tena aroturuki o tetahi atu ngā whakapae e hanga e koe.
[ , ] I roto i te pepa ataahua, Lewis and Rao (2015) lelei whakaatu i te herenga tauanga taketake o ngā ara nui. Ko te pepa-i tuatahi i te taitara taunanawe "I te Tata-eita o ine nga Returns ki Advertising" -shows pehea uaua ko reira ki te ine i te hokinga mai i runga i haumi o pānuitanga ipurangi, ara ki ngā mamati whai wāhi mai mirioni o kiritaki. More te tikanga, āta whakaatu te pepa e ko te reira pakeke ki te whakatau tata pānga maimoatanga iti roto raraunga putanga ngangau. Ranei kī diffently, whakaatu ana te pepa e ka whai pānga maimoatanga pea, ngā āputa māia nui ina te pānga-ki-paerewa-ine mahora (\ (\ frac {\ pae raorao \ {y}} {\ sigma} \)) he iti ōwehenga. Te haapiiraa whānui nui i tenei pepa he e hua i ngā ki te iti ōwehenga pānga-ki-paerewa-ine mahora (hei tauira, ROI o kaupapa pānuitanga) ka kia unsatisfying. ka waiho koutou wero ki te tuhituhi i te manatu ki ha taha i roto i te tari hokohoko o to koutou kamupene evaluting he whakamātau whakaritea ki te ine i te ROI o te pakanga ad. Me koutou manatu kia tautokona ki kauwhata o nga hua o whaihanga rorohiko.
Tenei te tahi mau mōhiohio whakamārama e ai e hiahia ana koe. Ko angamaheni o nga ngā tūturu korerotia i roto i te katoa o enei uara tau Lewis and Rao (2015) :
ROI, he ngahuru matua mō kaupapa ad ipurangi, ngā te ki hei te pai kupenga i te pakanga (pai kerekere i whakahau, haunga utu o te pakanga) wehea e te utu o te pakanga. Hei tauira te pakanga i kahore pānga i runga i te hoko e whai he ROI o -100%, me te pakanga i reira i rite ki ngā utu e whai he ROI o 0 hua waihangatia.
nga hoko toharite mō ia kiritaki he $ 7 ki te ine mahora o te $ 75.
tūmanakohia te pakanga kei te ki te whakapiki ake i te hoko i te $ 0.35 ia kiritaki e hāngai ki te hua i roto i te pai o $ 0,175 ia kiritaki. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, te tawhē kerekere ko 50%.
te rahi whakaritea o te whakamātau he 200,000 iwi, hawhe i roto i te rōpū maimoatanga me te hawhe i roto i te rōpū mana.
te utu o te pakanga ko te $ 0,14 ia kaiuru.
Tuhia he manatu evaluting tenei whakamātau. E tūtohu koe whakarewa tenei whakamātau rite whakaritea? Ki te pena, aha? Ki te kahore, he aha ngā rerekētanga e tūtohu koe?
ka whakatutuki te manatu pai tenei take motuhake; ka ahuwhānui he manatu pai i tenei take i roto i te kotahi ara (hei tauira, whakaatu pehea te huringa whakatau ano te mahi o te ōwehenga pānga-ki-paerewa-ine); a ka tapae he manatu nui te hua tino te whakatakiruatanga o.
[ , ] E te taua rite te pātai o mua, engari, kaua ki te whaihanga kia whakamahi koe hua analytic.
[ , , ] E te taua rite te pātai o mua, engari te whakamahi i rua whaihanga me hua analytic.
[ , , ] A feruri na e kua tuhituhia e koe i te manatu whakaahuatia ana i runga-te whakamahi rānei whaihanga, hua analytic, e rua-me te tangata i te tari hokohoko ranei taunaki whakamahi i te rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga Estimator, nui atu i te rerekētanga i roto i te tikanga Estimator (kite Wāhanga 4.6.2) . Tuhia he manatu poto hou whakamārama pehea te 0.4 faatanoraa i waenganui i te hoko i te aroaro o te whakamātau, me hoko i muri i te whakamātau e whakaputa ke tou mutunga.
[ , ] I roto i te tikanga ki te arotake i te whai huatanga o te mahi umanga e hāngai ana tukutuku-hou, i whakahaeretia he tari ratonga mahi whare wānanga i te tamataraa mana randomized roto 10,000 ngā ākonga tomo ratou tau whakamutunga o te kura. I tonoa tētahi ohaurunga free ki ahurei mōhiohio roko-i roto i roto i te aniraa īmēra motuhake ki 5,000 o nga ākonga tīpako matapōkeretia, i ko te tahi atu ngā ākonga 5,000 i roto i te rōpū mana, a kahore e whai i te ohaurunga. Kotahi tekau ma rua nga marama i muri mai, he rangahau whai-ake (me kore whakautu-kore) whakaatu e i roto i rua i te maimoatanga me te mana rōpū, kua noaa 70% o nga ākonga wā-tonu mahi i roto i to ratou mara whiriwhiri (Ripanga 4.5). Ko te kupu, te mea te reira e i te ratonga e hāngai ana tukutuku-kore pānga.
Heoi, he kaiputaiao raraunga mohio i te whare wānanga ka titiro i te raraunga tata atu te moka, a kitea e takiuru ake% 20 anake o te ākonga i roto i te rōpū maimoatanga ki te pūkete i muri i te fariiraa i te īmēra. I tua atu, ka ahua Koinei, i roto i te hunga e kua takiuru ki te paetukutuku noaa 60 anake% i te wā-tonu mahi i roto i to ratou mara whiriwhiri, i ko raro atu i te auau mō iwi kihai i e te takiuru i a raro atu i te auau mō iwi i roto i te huru mana (Ripanga 4.6).
Tīwhiri: tenei pātai haere tua atu i te rauemi hipoki i roto i tenei pene, engari whakatutuki take noa i roto i ngā. Kei te te tahi mau taime i huaina tenei momo o te hoahoa whakamātautau te hoahoa faaitoitoraa no te mea kei te ākina kaiuru ki te whai wāhi i roto i te maimoatanga. Tenei raruraru ko te tauira o huaina te mea te kotahi-taha hanganga ture-kore (kite Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 5)
[ ] I muri i te whakamātautau atu, huri i te reira i roto i taua ko noa atu uaua te whakamātautau whakaahuatia i roto i te pātai o mua. Huri i te reira i roto i taua utua 10% o te iwi i roto i te rōpū mana mo te uru ki te mahi, a te mutunga ake ratou ki te auau mahi o 65% (Ripanga 4.7).
Tīwhiri: tenei pātai haere tua atu i te rauemi hipoki i roto i tenei pene, engari whakatutuki take noa i roto i ngā. Tenei raruraru ko te tauira o huaina te mea e rua-taha hanganga-kore (kite Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 6)
rōpū | rahi | auau mahi |
---|---|---|
uru homai ki paetukutuku | 5,000 | 70% |
E kore homai uru ki te paetukutuku | 5,000 | 70% |
rōpū | rahi | auau mahi |
---|---|---|
Homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku me te takiuru i roto i | 1,000 | 60% |
Homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku, me te kore takiuru i roto i | 4,000 | 85% |
E kore homai uru ki te paetukutuku | 5,000 | 70% |
rōpū | rahi | auau mahi |
---|---|---|
Homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku me te takiuru i roto i | 1,000 | 60% |
Homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku, me te kore takiuru i roto i | 4,000 | 72,5% |
E kore homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku me te utua hoki reira | 500 | 65% |
E kore homai wāhi ki te paetukutuku, me te kore i utu hoki reira | 4,500 | 70,56% |