2.4.2 Matapae me nowcasting

Tohu i te heke mai he pakeke, engari te matapae i te hakari he māmā.

Kei te forecasting te rautaki matua tuarua e whakamahia ana e ngā kairangahau ki raraunga observational. Tohu i te heke mai he nānā uaua, engari ka taea e te mea nui mīharo mo kaihanga whakatau, ahakoa mahi ratou i roto i te kamupene kāwanatanga ranei.

Kleinberg et al. (2015) tuku e rua ngā pūrākau e whakamārama i te faufaa o te matakite mo etahi raruraru kaupapa here. A feruri na tetahi kaihanga kaupapa here, ka karanga ahau ki a ia Anna, e te anga i te tauraki, a me whakatau mehemea ki te utu i te Shaman ki te mahi i te kanikani ua ki te whakapiki ake i te tupono o ua. Tetahi kaihanga kaupapa here, ka karanga ahau ki a ia Bob, me whakatau mehemea ki te tango i te hamarara ki te mahi ki te karo i whiwhi maku i runga i te ara te kāinga. E rua Anna ko Bob taea te hanga i te whakatau pai ki te matau ratou huarere, engari e hiahia ana ratou ki te mohio ki nga mea rerekē. Me ki matau ranei te ua kanikani ai te ua Anna. Bob, i runga i te tahi atu i te ringa, e kore e hiahia ana ki te matauranga ki tetahi mea e pā ana ki causality; ia Me tika te matapae tika. Maha arotahi kairangahau Social runga i te mea Kleinberg et al. (2015) karanga "ua kanikani-rite" raruraru-te hunga kaupapa here e arotahi ana ki te causality-a tau'a ore raruraru kaupapa here "hamarara-rite" e E arotahi ana i runga i forecasting.

Te hinaaro nei e ahau ki te arotahi, Heoi, i runga i te ahua motuhake o te matakite i huaina nowcasting -a wā i takea mai i te whakakotahi "i teie nei" me "matakite." Aita atu matapae i te heke mai, nowcasting nganatanga ki matapae i te hakari (Choi and Varian 2012) . I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, whakamahi nowcasting tikanga matakite mō ngā raruraru o te inenga. Ka rite ki taua, kia waiho te reira rawa whai hua ki ngā kāwanatanga e rapua e mehua wā, me te tika e pā ana ki o ratou whenua. Ka taea te faahoho'ahia tino mārama Nowcasting ki te tauira o Google Rewharewha Te raveraa i.

A feruri na e ongo'i koe he wahi i raro i te rangi kia pato koe "rongoā rewharewha" ki te pūkaha rapu, ia farii i te whārangi o te hononga i roto i te whakautu, a ka whai tetahi o ratou ki te whārangi āwhina. Na feruri i te whakatangihanga a tenei mahi i roto i te tirohanga o te pūkaha rapu. Nga taime, e tae mirioni o uiui i huri noa i te ao, me tenei awa o uiui-aha Battelle (2006) kua huaina te "pātengi raraunga o koronga" - whakarato i te matapihi whakahoutia tonu ki te mahara ao ngātahi. Heoi, ka tahuri tenei awa o ngā mōhiohio ki te inenga o te nuinga o te rewharewha he uaua. Noa tatau ake te maha o pātai mō "rongoā rewharewha" kore ai pai te mahi. Ehara i nga tangata katoa e whai i te rapu rewharewha mō rongoā rewharewha, me te kore tangata katoa e tutei mo rongoā rewharewha e te rewharewha.

Te whakapati nui, me te tupato i muri Google Rewharewha Ngä ko ki te tahuri i te raruraru inenga ki te raruraru forecasting. Te US Senitā hoki me te Ārai Tahumaero (CDC) he pūnaha aroturuki rewharewha e kohikohi mōhiohio i mau taote huri noa i te motu. Heoi, kotahi raruraru ki tenei pūnaha CDC ko reira he he pūrongo takamuri rua wiki; te wa e te reira mo nga raraunga tae i tākuta ki kia horoia, tukatuka, ka whakaputaina. Otira, ka maminga he urutā puta, tari hauora tūmatanui e kore e hiahia ana ki te mohio ki te nui rewharewha reira ko rua wiki ki muri; e hiahia ana ratou ki te mohio te nui rewharewha reira he tika inaianei. I roto i te meka, i roto i te maha atu puna tuku iho o raraunga pāpori, i reira he āputa i waenganui i ngaru o te kohinga raraunga me te lags pūrongo. Te nuinga o ngā mātāpuna raraunga nui, i runga i te tahi atu i te ringa, he tonu-i runga i (Tekiona 2.3.1.2).

Na reira, Jeremy Ginsberg me hoa (2009) tamata ki te matapae i te rewharewha raraunga CDC i te raraunga rapu Google. Ko te tauira o "te matapae i te hakari" no te mea i tamata i te kairangahau ki te ine i te nui rewharewha reira he inaianei e matapae raraunga heke mai i te CDC, raraunga heke mai kei te whanganga i te hakari tenei. Mā te ako mīhini, rapu ratou i roto i te 50 miriona kupu rapu rerekē ki te kite i te hunga tino mana'ohia e o te raraunga rewharewha CDC. I te pae hopea, ka kitea e ratou he huinga o 45 uiui rerekē e titiro ki te hei tino mana'ohia e, a tino pai nga hua i: taea te whakamahi ratou nga raraunga rapu ki te matapae i te raraunga CDC. I roto i te wahi i runga i tenei pepa, i whakaputaina i roto i te Nature, ka Google Rewharewha Ngä he kōrero angitu pinepine toutou e pā ana ki te mana o ngā raraunga nui.

E rua reehita nui ki tenei angitu kitea, Heoi, me te mahara ki enei reehita, ka tauturu i te arotake ia koe, ka mahi matakite, me te nowcasting. Tuatahi, ko mau te mahi o Google Rewharewha Ngä kore nui, pai atu i te tauira ohie e tata te nui o rewharewha e hāngai ana i runga i te marohi rārangi i te inenga tino tata e rua o te rewharewha nuinga (Goel et al. 2010) . Na, i runga i etahi wā wā ko mau kino atu tenei huarahi ohie Google Rewharewha Ngä (Lazer et al. 2014) . I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, kihai i Google Rewharewha Ngä me ona raraunga katoa, ako mīhini, me te rorohiko kaha tino faito i te ohie, me te māmā ki te matau heuristic. Tenei fokotuu e ka te aromātai i tetahi matapae nowcast ranei he mea nui ki te whakarite ki te tauanga.

Te arai nui tuarua e pā ana ki Google Rewharewha Ngä ko e ko e pängia ana ki te kore wā-poto, me te pirau no te tere me te veuveuki algorithmic wā roa-tona kaha ki te matapae i te rewharewha raraunga CDC. Hei tauira, i roto i te 2009 Poaka Rewharewha pakarutanga Google Rewharewha Ngä tino whakatau tata i runga i-te nui o rewharewha, no te mea pea ahu iwi ki te taui i to ratou whanonga rapu i roto i te whakautu ki te wehi whānui o te urutā ao (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . I tua atu ki enei raruraru wā-poto, te mahi āta hemo i runga i te wā. Tātarihia te nga take mo tenei pirau wā roa e uaua no te mea he kamupene nga hātepe rapu Google, engari puta te reira i taua i roto i te 2011 i hanga Google huringa e e whakaaro ngā kupu rapu e pā ana ka rapu te iwi mō tohu rite "kirika" me "mare" (titiro hoki reira e he kore tenei āhuatanga kaha). Tāpiri i tēnei āhuatanga ko te mea rawa whaitake ki te mahi, ki te e rere koe i te pakihi search engine, a i reira i te pānga o te whakaputa rapu ana te hauora ake. Ko tenei pea te angitu mo te mahi, engari meinga reira Google Rewharewha Ngä ki runga-tata nuinga rewharewha (Lazer et al. 2014) .

Aua'e, he fixable enei raruraru ki Google Rewharewha Te raveraa i. I roto i te meka, te whakamahi i ngā tikanga atu tupato, Lazer et al. (2014) me Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) i taea ki te tiki pai hua. Haere atu, tatari ahau e rangahau nowcasting e ngā raraunga nui ki kairangahau kohia raraunga-e ngā Readymades Duchamp-kāhua ki Michaelangelo-kāhua Custommades-ka taea kaihanga kaupapa here ki te whakaputa i tere me te ake tika inenga o te hakari, me te matapae o te heke mai.