2.4.3.1 ngā Natural

Ngā Natural tango painga o ngā tupurangi i roto i te ao. hui matapōkere + tonu-i runga i te pūnaha raraunga = whakamātau tūturu

Te kī ki randomized ngā whakahaeretia taea whakarite ataahua ko te Tupurangitanga. Heoi, tupu wā te tahi mea i roto i te ao e tino vahe iwi matapōkeretia tata ranei matapōkeretia ki maimoatanga rerekē. Ko tētahi o ngā tauira mahino o te rautaki o te whakamahi i ngā taiao mai i te rangahau o Angrist (1990) e ine te pānga o ngā ratonga hoia i runga i moni.

I roto i te whawhai i roto i Vietnam, nui te United States i te rahi o ona ope patu i roto i te tauira. Roto i te tikanga ki te whakatau e tangata e kia huaina ki mahi, tū te kāwanatanga US he rota. kanohi nga rā whānau i runga i te wahi o te pepa, ka whakanohoia enei pepa i roto i te oko karaihe nui. I whakaaturia i roto i te Whakaahua 2.5, i unu enei peka o te pepa i te oko kotahi i te wa ki te whakatau i te tikanga e pai nga tangata taitamariki kia huaina ki te mahi (kore i taitamariki wahine raro ki te tauira). I runga i nga hua, i karangatia e te tangata i whanau i runga i Mahuru 14 tuatahi, i karangatia e te tangata i whanau i runga i April 24 tuarua, a na i runga i. I te pae hopea, i roto i tenei rota, i karangatia e te tangata i whanau i runga i 195 nga ra rerekē ki te mahi i i kore nga tangata i whanau i runga i 171 nga ra ka karanga.

Whakaahua 2.5: Congressman Alexander Pirnie (R-NY) tuhi i te capsule tuatahi mo te tauira whiriwhiri Ratonga runga Hakihea 1, 1969. Joshua Angrist (1990) ngā te rota tauira ki moni raraunga i te Whakahaere Social Security ki te whakatau tata i te pānga o te mahi hōia i runga i moni. Ko te tauira o te rangahau mā te whakamahi i te whakamātau tūturu tenei. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Ahakoa kore ai e te reira tonu kitea, he rota tauira he faitatau arohaehae ki te whakamātau whakahaeretia randomized: i roto i ngā āhuatanga e rua matapōkeretia e whakaritea kaiuru ki te farii i te maimoatanga. I roto i te take o te rota tauira, ki te he tatou hiahia i roto i te ako e pā ana ki te pānga o te tauira-māraurau me mahi hōia i runga i muri moni mākete mahi, e nehenehe tatou e whakarite putanga mō te iwi nei birthdates i raro i te cutoff rota (hei tauira, Hepetema 14, Paenga 24, me ētahi atu) ki te putanga mō te iwi nei rā whānau i muri i te cutoff (hei tauira, February 20, Tihema 2, me ētahi atu).

Homai kua whakaritea matapōkeretia tenei maimoatanga o te tuhia, e nehenehe na tatou te ine i te pānga o tenei maimoatanga mō tetahi putanga kua e kua whanganga. Hei tauira, Angrist (1990) ngā te mōhiohio e pā ana i tīpakohia matapōkeretia i roto i te hukihuki ki te moni raraunga i kohia e te Whakahaere Social Security ki faaoti i pā ana ki 15% iti iho i te moni o rite-hōia kore nga moni o hōia ma . Kua whakamahia ētahi atu kairangahau he whakapati rite rite te pai. Hei tauira, Conley and Heerwig (2011) ngā te mōhiohio e pā ana i tīpakohia matapōkeretia i roto i te hukihuki ki te raraunga whare kohia i te Rangahau 2000 Tatauranga me 2005 American Community, ka kitea e pera roa i muri i te tauira, i reira ko iti pānga o te wā roa- faehau i runga i te momo o ngā putanga pērā i tikanga whare (whai versus reti) me te pūmautanga noho (tūponotanga o ka neke i roto i te tau e rima o mua).

Ka rite ki tenei tauira whakaatu, i ētahi wā ope pāpori, tōrangapū, ranei tūturu hanga ngā tata-ngā e taea te leveraged e kairangahau ranei. Mea pinepine ngā tūturu ko te ara pai ki te whakatau tata hononga take-a-pānga i roto i ngā tautuhinga te wahi e kore he reira matatika ranei mahi ki te whakahaere i randomized ngā whakahaere. Ko ratou he rautaki nui mō te tūhura whakataurite ataahua i roto i raraunga kore-whakamātau. Ka taea te whakarāpopoto tēnei rautaki rangahau i tenei whārite:

\ [\ kuputuhi {tupurangi (ranei, me te mea tupurangi) hui} + \ kuputuhi {tonu-i runga i te awa raraunga} = \ kuputuhi {whakamātau tūturu} \ qquad (2.1) \]

Heoi, i te tātari o ngā taiao e taea kia tino uaua. Hei tauira, i roto i te take o te tauira Vietnam, e kore katoa e te tauira-āhei mutu ake te taviniraa (reira ko te momo o te whakawāteatanga). Na, i te wa ano, etahi iwi nei kihai i tuhi i-āhei tūao hoki mahi. Ko te rite ki i roto i te tamataraa haumanu o te tarukino hou, e kore te tahi mau taata i roto i te rōpū maimoatanga i tango ratou rongoā, me te te hopoia riro etahi o te iwi i roto i te rōpū mana te tarukino. Tenei raruraru, ka karanga noncompliance iu-rua, me te pai rite maha atu raruraru e whakaahuatia i roto i te kōrero nui i roto i te tahi mau o nga pānuitanga tūtohutia i te mutunga o tenei pene.

Te rautaki o te tango painga o noatia puta ohipa tupurangi mua te ao mamati, engari te nuinga o te raraunga nui hanga nui māmā tenei rautaki ki te whakamahi i. Kia ite koe kua etahi maimoatanga kua whakaritea matapōkeretia, ka taea e ngā pūtake raraunga nui whakarato te raraunga hua e hiahia ana koe i roto i te tikanga ki te whakarite i te hua mō te iwi i roto i nga tikanga maimoatanga me te mana. Hei tauira, i roto i tona ako o te pānga o te mahi tauira me hōia, hanga Angrist whakamahi o moni pūkete i te Whakahaere Social Security; kahore tenei raraunga putanga, e kore e i tona ako i taea. I roto i tenei take, te Whakahaere Social Security ko te wa katoa-i runga i pūtake raraunga nui. Ka rite ki atu a ake aunoa kohia puna raraunga tīari, ka whai ia tatou atu raraunga putanga e taea te ine i te pānga o ngā rerekētanga i hanga e te rerekētanga exogenous.

No te faahoho'ai teie rautaki i roto i te ao mamati, kia whakaaro a Mas ko Moretti o (2009) rangahau huatau i runga i te pānga o rātou hoa i runga i te hua. Ahakoa i runga i te mata kia titiro te reira rerekē atu i ako a Angrist e pā ana ki te pānga o te Tauira Vietnam, i roto i te hanganga whai ratou e rua te tauira i roto i te EQ. 2.1.

whanganga Mas ko Moretti pehea pānga hoa te hua o kaimahi. I runga i te ringa kotahi, he hoa pakeke mahi arahi ai kaimahi ki te whakapiki ake i to ratou hua mo te aki ā-hoa. Ranei, i runga i te tahi atu i te ringa, he hoa mahi pakeke kia arahi atu kaimahi ki te whakaroa atu noa atu. Te ara mahino ki ako pānga hoa i runga i hua pai kia he whakamātau whakahaeretia randomized wahi e matapōkeretia whakaritea kaimahi ki ngā tīpakopako ki kaimahi o rerekē ngā taumata hua me whanganga hua ka hua te mo te katoa. Kairangahau, Heoi, e kore e whakahaere i te hōtaka o kaimahi i roto i tetahi tūturu mahi, a na i Mas ko Moretti ki te whakawhirinaki i runga i te whakamātau taiao i tangohia e wahi i roto i te hokomaha.

Just rite EQ. 2.1, i rua nga wahi ratou ako. Tuatahi, whakamahia ratou i nga rākau i te pūnaha hokomaha Hokona ki te whai i te pū, takitahi, me te mehua o te hua tonu-i runga i: te maha o ngā tūemi karapahia ia rua. Na, tuarua, no te mea o te ara mahi e whakahōtaka i i tenei hokomaha, i tata hanganga matapōkere o hoa ratou. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, ahakoa e kore te te whakaritenga o cashiers whakaritea e te rota, ko reira tino matapōkere. I roto i te mahi, i te maia to tatou i roto i ngā taiao pinepine ohu i runga i te plausibility o tenei "rite-ki" kerēme tupurangi. Te tango painga o tenei rerekētanga matapōkere, kitea Mas ko Moretti e mahi ki teitei hoa hua whakanuia ana hua. I tua atu, whakamahia Mas ko Moretti te rahi me te momonatanga o ratou huingararaunga ki te neke tua atu i te utu i whakarite o te take-a-pānga ki te tūhura rua ngā take nui ake, me te mohio: heterogeneity o tenei pānga (momo o kaimahi ko te pānga nui hoki e) me te tikanga muri te pānga (aha te he hoa hua nui arahi ki te hua teitei). Ka hoki mai matou ki enei nui e rua ngā take-heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga me huarahi-i roto i te Chapter 5 ina aparau tatou ngā i roto i te taipitopito ake.

Generalizing i te rangahau i runga i te pānga o te Tauira Whitināmu runga moni me te ako o te pānga o ō rātou hoa i runga i te hua, Ripanga 2.3 whakarāpopoto atu rangahau e whai tenei hanganga taua tangohia: te whakamahi i te wa katoa-i runga i pūtake raraunga ki te ine i te pānga o te tahi mau hui . Ka rite ki Ripanga 2.3 hanga mārama, he wahi katoa ngā taiao ki te mohio tika koutou pehea ki te titiro hoki a ratou.

I roto i te mahi, te whakamahi i kairangahau rautaki e rua rerekē mō te kimi i ngā tūturu, e rua o nei e taea e hua. tīmata ētahi kairangahau ki te tonu-ki runga ki raraunga pūtake, me te titiro hoki ngā tupurangi i roto i te ao; etahi tīmata ki ngā tupurangi i roto i te ao, me te titiro hoki ngā pūtake raraunga e hopu ratou pānga. I te pae hopea, ite e te kaha o ngā taiao e kore e haere mai i te aravihiraa o te tātari tauanga, engari i te tiaki i roto i te ite i te faaauraa ataahua i hanga e te aituā waimarie o te hītori.