3.4.2 tauira Non-tūponotanga: Nuiōrau
Ki te tauira tūponotanga-kore, ka taea e taimaha wete distortions meinga e te tukanga tīpako riro.
I roto i te ara ano e kairangahau taumaha whakautu i ngā tauira tūponotanga, e taea ano ratou taumaha whakautu i ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore. Hei tauira, hei kē ki te CPS, whakaaro i whakanohoia koutou pānuitanga kara i runga i nga mano o tukutuku ki te kimi kaiuru mō te rangahau ki te whakatau tata i te auau kore mahi. Noatia, e kia koe taetuí e e riro i te toharite ohie o koutou tauira te tata pai o te auau kore mahi. Ko pea koutou ore te no te whakaaro koe e te tahi mau taata e pea atu ki te whakaoti i tō rangahau atu ētahi atu. Hei tauira, te iwi e kore e nei whakapau i te rota o te wā i runga i te tukutuku e iti pea ki te whakaoti i tō rangahau.
Ka rite ki tatou i kite i roto i te wāhanga whakamutunga, Heoi, ki te matau ana tatou pehea i tīpakohia-rite te tauira mahi matou ki tūponotanga tauira-ka e nehenehe tatou e wete distortions meinga e te tukanga tauira. Kia aroha mai, ka mahi ki te tauira tūponotanga-kore, tatou e kore e matau ki te pehea tīpakohia te tauira i. Ko, Ka taea e hanga tatou whakapae e pā ana ki te tukanga tīpako me ka tono Nuiōrau i roto i te ara ano. Ki te he tika enei whakapae, na ka faaore te Nuiōrau nga distortions meinga e te tukanga tauira.
Hei tauira, feruri e i roto i te whakautu ki a koutou pānuitanga kara, whakauru koe 100,000 ngā. Heoi, e kore koutou e whakapono e enei ngā 100,000 ko te tauira tupurangi ohie o ngā pakeke American. I roto i te meka, ina whakarite koe ou ngā ki te taupori US, kitea e koe e te iwi i te tahi mau āhua (hei tauira, New York) he i runga i-kanohi me e te iwi i te tahi mau āhua (hei tauira, Alaska) kei raro-kanohi. Ko te kupu, he pea ki te waiho i te tata kino o te auau kore mahi i roto i te taupori ūnga te auau kore mahi o to koutou tauira.
Ko e founga ki te wete i te distortion i tupu i roto i te tukanga tauira ko te ki te tautapa taimaha ki tangata ia; taimaha raro ki te iwi i te āhua e kua runga-kanohi i roto i te tauira (hei tauira, New York) me taimaha teitei ki te iwi i te āhua e kua raro-kanohi i roto i te tauira (hei tauira, Alaska). More āta, e pā ana te taimaha mo ia kaiurupare te ki ratou nuinga i roto i to koutou tauira whanaunga ki to ratou nuinga i roto i te taupori US. Huaina ana tēnei tukanga Nuiōrau te pou-raupapatanga, me te whakaaro o te taimaha e fakamanatu koe o te tauira i roto i te Wāhanga 3.4.1 wahi i hoatu ngā i Rhode Island iti taimaha atu ngā i California. titau pou-raupapatanga e matau ana koutou nui ki te hoatu i to outou kaiurupare ki ngā rōpū, me te ki mohio te ōwehenga o te taupori ūnga i roto i ia rōpū.
Ahakoa te Nuiōrau o te tauira tūponotanga me o te tauira tūponotanga-kore ko te taua pāngarau (tirohia te āpitihanga hangarau), pai mahi ratou i roto i ngā āhuatanga rerekē. Ki te mea he tauira tūponotanga tino (arā, kahore hapa kapinga me kahore whakautu-kore) te kairangahau, ka ka hua i te Nuiōrau tata tōkeke mō huru katoa i roto i te wā katoa. Tenei taurangi kaha ariā ko te aha te kitea kaitautoko o tauira tūponotanga ratou na ataahua. I te tahi atu te ringa, ka whakaputa i anake Nuiōrau tauira tūponotanga-kore tata tōkeke mō āhuatanga katoa ki te ko te taua hoki te katoa i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi i te propensities whakautu. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, te feruri hoki ki to tatou hi'oraa, te whakamahi i pou-raupapatanga ka hua i tata tōkeke ki te katoa i roto i te New York e te taua tūponotanga o te whai wāhi me te katoa i roto i Alaska e te taua tūponotanga o te whai wāhi, me te pera i runga i. Huaina ana tēnei whakaaro te te whakaaro ōrite-whakautu-propensities-roto-rōpū, ka whai te reira he wāhi matua i roto i mohio ki te ka te mahi pai pou-raupapatanga ki ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore.
Râ, i roto i to tatou hi'oraa, te mea pea ki te e pono te whakaaro ōrite-whakautu-propensities-roto-rōpū. E ko, te mea te reira pea taua katoa i roto i Alaska e te taua tūponotanga o te i roto i to koutou rangahau. Ko, i reira e toru nga ngā nui ki te pupuri i roto i te ngakau e pā ana ki te pou-raupapatanga, katoa o nei kia mea he nui atu whaihua.
Tuatahi, riro ōrite-whakautu-propensities-roto-rōpū whakaaro atu lelei nai rite te maha o piki rōpū. A, e kore e kairangahau iti ki ngā rōpū tika i runga i te taha matawhenua kotahi. Hei tauira, i taea e tatou te hanga i ngā rōpū e hāngai ana i runga i te kāwanatanga, pakeke, te ira tangata, me te taumata o te mātauranga. te mea te reira plausible atu e reira he propensities whakautu ōrite i roto i te rōpū o 18-29, paetahi wahine, kāreti noho i roto i Alaska atu i roto i te rōpū o te iwi katoa e noho ana i roto i Alaska. Ko te kupu, kia rite ki te maha o ngā rōpū e whakamahia ana mō te piki pou-raupapatanga, e hiahiatia ana te whakapae ki te tautoko i riro te reira atu whaitake. Homai tenei meka, te mea te reira rite e hiahia he kairangahau ki te waihanga i te maha nui o ngā rōpū mō te pou-raupapatanga. Ko, pera me te maha o piki rōpū, rere kairangahau ki te raruraru rerekē: sparsity raraunga. Ki te reira e noa he maha iti o te iwi i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi, katahi ka kia atu pahuhu nga whakatau tata, a i roto i te take tino wahi i reira he he rōpū e kahore ngā, ka pou-raupapatanga rawa wawahi iho. He ara e rua i roto i tenei mānukanuka tūturu i waenganui i te plausibility o homogeneous- whakaaro whakautu-keno-roto-rōpū, me te tono mō te rahi tauira whaitake i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi. Ko tētahi huarahi ko te ki te neke ki te tauira tauanga ake mātanga mō te tātai pauna me te tahi atu ko ki te kohikohi i te nui, tauira atu kanorau, e tauturu te whakarite rahi tauira whaitake i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi. Na, i ētahi wā kairangahau mahi e rua, rite ka whakaahua ahau i roto i te kōrero atu i raro.
He whakaaro tuarua, ka mahi ki pou-raupapatanga i ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore ko e te kua pinepine hanga te whakaaro ōrite-whakautu-keno-roto-rōpū ka tātari tauira tūponotanga. Ko te take i hiahiatia tenei whakaaro te hoki tauira tūponotanga i roto i te mahi ko te e tauira tūponotanga whai whakautu-kore, me te tikanga tino noa mō te whakatikatika hoki i te whakautu-kore he pou-raupapatanga rite whakaahuatia ana i runga. O te akoranga, no te mea noa maha kairangahau hanga e kore e he tetahi whakaaro te tikanga kia meatia e koe i te reira rawa. Ko, te auraa i te reira e, no te whakatairite tauira tūponotanga-kore ki tauira tūponotanga i roto i te mahi, e ti'a ia tatou te pupuri i roto i te ngakau e whakawhirinaki e rua i runga i ngā whakapae, me te mōhiohio pŭpŭ tauturu i roto i te tikanga ki te whakaputa whakatau tata. I roto i te tautuhinga tino kiko, i reira he noa kahore huarahi whakaaro-free ki te hīkaro.
I te pae hopea, ki te tiaki ia koutou e pā ana ki tetahi tata i roto i ngā-i roto i to tatou hi'oraa kore mahi auau-ka e hiahia ana koe i te huru ngoikore atu ōrite-whakautu-keno-roto-rōpū whakaaro. Tüturu, e kore koutou e hiahia ana ki te amo i taua tangata katoa e te keno whakautu taua, Me anake koe ki te amo i taua i reira he kahore ine i waenga i te whakautu keno me auau kore mahi i roto i ia rōpū. O te akoranga, e kore e ara tenei huru ngoikore mau i roto i te tahi mau āhuatanga. Hei tauira, feruri ine i te rahi o Ameliká e mahi mahi tūao. Ki te he pea atu ki te whakaae ki te waiho i roto i te rangahau iwi e mahi te mahi tūao, ka kairangahau e pūnahanaha i runga i-whakarite i te nui o tūao, ara, ki te meatia e ratou whakarerekētanga pou-raupapatanga, he hua kua whakaatu empirically e Abraham, Helms, and Presser (2009) .
Ka rite ki ahau ka mea mua, kua tirohia ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore ki te ore te nui e kaipūtaiao pāpori, i roto i te wahi no te o to ratou tūranga i roto i te tahi mau o nga rahunga tino whakamā i roto i nga ra wawe o te rangahau rangahau. He tauira mārama o te pehea tawhiti kua tae mai matou ki te tauira tūponotanga-kore ko te rangahau o Wei Wang, Rawiri Rothschild, Sharad Goel, ko Anaru Gelman e tika whakahokia te putanga o te US pōtitanga 2012 te whakamahi i te tauira tūponotanga-kore o American Xbox kaiwhakamahi -a tauira decidedly kore-tupurangi o Ameliká (Wang et al. 2015) . haina ngā nga kairangahau i te pūnaha petipeti Xbox, a rite koutou kia mahara, tītaha te tauira Xbox tane me tītaha taitamariki: 18 - hanga ake te pakeke 29 tau 19% o te rohe pōti, engari 65% o te tauira Xbox me hanga nga tangata ake 47% o te rohe pōti, me 93% o te tauira Xbox (Figure 3.4). No te mea o enei o näianei kaha taupori, ko te raraunga Xbox raw he tohu rawakore o hoki pōtitanga. tohu te reira i te wikitoria kaha mo Mitt Romney mo Barack Obama. Ano, Ko tetahi tauira o nga fifi o raw, tauira tūponotanga-kore unadjusted tenei a he haamana'oraa o te tokomaha Literary Digest.
Whakaahua 3.4: taupori o ngā i roto i te Wang et al. (2015) . No te mea haina i ngā i Xbox, ratou pea atu ki te kia taitamariki me te pea atu ki hei tane, whanaunga ki ngā kaipōti i roto i te pōtitanga 2012.
Heoi, i mōhio o enei raruraru Wang me hoa, ka whakamātau ki te taumaha ki te whakatika hoki i te tukanga tauira nga ngā. I roto i ngā, whakamahia ratou he ahua ake mātanga o te pou-raupapatanga korerotia e ahau ki a koutou e pā ana ki. Ko utu ako he bit atu e pā ana ki to ratou huarahi no te mea hanga te reira pūmanawa e pā ana ki te pou-raupapatanga reira, me te putanga ngā Wang me hoa whakamahia ko tetahi o nga huarahi tino whakaongaonga ki ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore Nuiōrau.
I roto i to tatou hi'oraa ohie e pā ana ki whakatau tata kore mahi i roto i te Tekiona 3.4.1, wehea matou te taupori ki ngā rōpū e hāngai ana i runga i te āhua o te noho. I roto i te rerekē, ka wehea Wang me hoa te taupori ki ki 176.256 ngā rōpū tautuhia e: te ira tangata (2 kāwai), iwi (4 kāwai), tau (4 kāwai), te mātauranga (4 kāwai), āhua (51 kāwai), ID rōpū (3 kāwai), Māoritanga (3 kāwai) me 2008 pōti (3 kāwai). Ki atu rōpū, tumanako nga kairangahau e e riro te reira piki pea e i roto i ia rōpū, i uncorrelated ki te tautoko mō te Obama whakautu keno. Next, nui atu i te hanga taimaha taumata-takitahi, i peratia me ta tatou i roto i to tatou hi'oraa, whakamahia Wang me hoa i te tauira matatini ki te whakatau tata i te ōwehenga o te iwi i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi e e pooti mo Obama. I te pae hopea, ngā ratou enei whakatau tata rōpū o te tautoko ki te rahi o te pŭpŭ tata'itahi mohiotia ki te whakaputa i te taumata whānui pea, o te tautoko. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, tapatapahi ratou ake te taupori ki ngā rōpū rerekē, tata te tautoko mō te Obama i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi, a ka tangohia e te toharite tautaha o te whakatau tata rōpū ki te whakaputa i te tata whānui.
Ko te kupu, te wero nui i roto i to ratou huarahi ko ki te whakatau tata i te tautoko mō te Mitt i roto i ia o enei rōpū 176.256. Ahakoa ngā ratou rōpū 345.858 kaiuru ahurei, he tokomaha nui i nga paerewa o pōti pōtitanga, i reira nga, maha maha ngā rōpū hoki i a Wang me hoa tata kahore ngā. Na reira, ki te whakatau tata i te tautoko i roto i te pŭpŭ tata'itahi whakamahia ratou he tikanga i huaina regression maha ki pou-raupapatanga, here kairangahau e karanga Mr. P. hono tefitó, ki te whakatau tata i te tautoko mō te Obama i roto i te rōpū motuhake, ngā mōhiohio Mr. P. wai maha i whanaunga tata ngā rōpū. Hei tauira, whakaaro te wero o ine i te tautoko mō te Obama roto wahine, Hispanics, i waenganui i 18-29 tau, e he ākonga kāreti, te hunga e rēhita Democrats, nei whaiaro te tautuhi-rite ngäwari, a ko wai pōti mo Obama i te tau 2008. tenei ko te rōpū rawa, rawa motuhake, a ko reira taea e reira he tangata i roto i te tauira ki ēnei āhuatanga. Na reira, ki te hanga whakatau tata e pā ana ki tenei rōpū, Mr. P. poka tahi tata i te iwi i roto i ngā rōpū tino rite.
Mā te tenei rautaki tātari, ko Wang me hoa taea ki te whakamahi i te Xbox tūponotanga-kore tauira ki te whakatau tata rawa tata te tautoko whānui i riro Mitt i te pōti 2012 (Figure 3.5). I roto i te meka i nui atu te tika atu i te töpü o tatau whakaaro tūmatanui ratou tata. Ko te kupu, i roto i tenei take, Nuiōrau-ngā Mr. P.-te mea ki te mahi i te mahi pai fakatonutonu nga näianei i roto i te raraunga tūponotanga-kore; o näianei e kitea ina titiro koe i te whakatau tata i te raraunga Xbox unadjusted.
Whakaahua 3.5: Estimates i Wang et al. (2015) . tauira Xbox Unadjusted hua tata hē. Ko, whakaputaina te tauira Xbox tautaha tata i nui atu tika atu i te toharite o rangahau waea hāngai tūponotanga-.
E rua haapiiraa matua i te ako o Wang me hoa. Tuatahi, ka taea e unadjusted tauira tūponotanga-kore arahi ki tata kino; Ko te haapiiraa e kua rongo maha kairangahau i mua i tenei. Heoi, te rua o te haapiiraa ko e tauira tūponotanga-kore, ka taimaha tika, ka taea e mau hua i tata tino pai. I roto i te meka, i nui atu tika atu te whakatau tata i te pollster.com, he whakawhāititanga o atu pane pōtitanga tuku iho ratou tata.
Heoi, i reira he fakangatangata nui ki ta tatou e nehenehe e haapii mai i tenei kotahi ako motuhake. Just no te mahi pai pou-raupapatanga i roto i tenei take ngā, kahore he kī e ka mahi i te reira pai i roto i te tahi atu take. I roto i te meka, he pea pōtitanga tetahi o nga tautuhinga māmā no te mea kua pollsters ako pōtitanga hoki tata 100 tau, i reira he urupare auau (e nehenehe kite tatou e toa i te pōtitanga), me te tāutu rōpū, me he āhua mana'ohia e te pōti āhuatanga tatauranga. I tēnei wā, hapa tatou ariā mārō, me te wheako wheako ki te mohio, no te e hua i Nuiōrau whakatikatika ki ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore tata tika makona. Kotahi te mea e he mārama, Heoi, ko te ki te e takoha koe ki te mahi ki te tauira tūponotanga-kore, ka i reira he take kaha ki te whakapono e ka pai atu tata kore-whakaritea tata faatanoraa.
