3.4 Ko wai ki te ui
E kore e taua rerekē i roto i te mahi tauira tūponotanga me ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore; i roto i te wā e rua, te reira katoa e pā ana ki te pauna.
he mahu'inga ki te ruri rangahau tīpako. Kairangahau tata kore ui ratou mau uiraa ki te katoa i roto i to ratou taupori ūnga. I roto i tenei whakaaro, e kore e ahurei rangahau. Te nuinga o te rangahau, i roto i te kotahi ara ranei tetahi, ngā tīpako. I te tahi taime i meatia tenei tīpako te āta e te kairangahau; te tahi atu mau taime tupu te reira ta'etoeveiveiua. Hei tauira, kua tangohia hoki he kairangahau e rere te whakamātau taiwhanga i runga i ngā ākonga paetahi i roto i tona whare wānanga i te tauira. Ko te kupu, tīpako ko te raruraru e tae mai ana, puta noa i tenei pukapuka. I roto i te meka, tetahi o nga āwangawanga tino noa e rongo ahau e pā ana ki ngā puna tau mamati o te raraunga ko "e kore e ratou māngai." I matou e kite i roto i tenei tekiona, ko te rua nui iti a he mohio rawa i maha taunu ite tenei āwangawanga. I roto i te meka, ka totohe ahau e kore he āwhina mō te whakaaro e pā ana ki te tūponotanga, me te tūponotanga-kore tauira te ariā katoa o "representativeness". Engari, ko te kī ko te ki te whakaaro e pā ana te pehea i kohia te raraunga, me te pehea e taea te wete i tetahi o näianei i roto i taua kohinga raraunga, ka hanga tata.
I tēnei wā, ko te huarahi ariā tino ki te kanohi ko te tīpako tūponotanga. A, no te e kohia raraunga ki te tikanga tīpako tūponotanga e kua maitai e mahi, e taea ki te taumaha e hāngai ana i runga i te ara i kohia e ratou ki te hanga whakatau tata tōkeke e pā ana ki te taupori ūnga ratou raraunga kairangahau. Heoi, tīpako tūponotanga tino waiwai e kore tupu i roto i te ao tūturu. He tikanga e rua raruraru matua 1) rerekētanga i waenganui i te taupori ūnga me te taupori anga me 2) whakautu-kore (he rite nga raruraru i pakaru te pane Literary Digest enei). Ko te kupu, nui atu i te whakaaro o te tīpako tūponotanga rite te tauira kiko o te mea mau tupu i roto i te ao, he pai ki te whakaaro o te tīpako tūponotanga ano he āwhina, tauira waitara, nui rite whakaaro ara nga physicists e pā ana ki te pōro frictionless okeoke iho te ore roa rōnaki.
Te rerekē ki te tīpako tūponotanga he tīpako tūponotanga-kore. Te rerekētanga matua i waenganui i te tūponotanga, me te tīpako tūponotanga-kore kei e ki tūponotanga te kohi katoa i roto i te taupori he tūponotanga o te whakaurua mohiotia. He, i roto i te meka, he maha ngā momo o te tīpako tūponotanga-kore, a kei te haere piki noa enei tikanga o te kohinga raraunga i roto i te ao mamati. Ko, tīpako tūponotanga-kore he ingoa whakamataku i roto i pūtaiao pāpori me statisticians. I roto i te meka, e pā ana tīpako tūponotanga-kore te ki etahi o nga rahunga tino whakaari o te rangahau kairangahau, pērā i te tokomaha Literary Digest (kōrero mua) me te matapae hē e pā ana ki te US pōtitanga peresideniraa o 1948 ( "mate Dewey Truman") (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) .
Heoi, he tika ki te whakaaro tīpako tūponotanga-kore mō te rua take te wa. Tuatahi, ka rite ki tauira tūponotanga kua piki uaua ki te mahi i roto i te mahi, kei te blurring te rārangi i waenganui i ngā tauira tūponotanga me ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore. A, no te reira he reiti nui o te whakautu-kore (rite reira kei roto i rangahau tūturu inaianei), e kore te tūponotanga tūturu o inclusions mō ngā e mohio, a tenei, tauira tūponotanga me ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore e kore rite rerekē rite maha kairangahau whakapono. I roto i te meka, rite tatou e kite i raro, huarahi e rua waiwai whakawhirinaki i runga i te tikanga i whakaritea e taua: pou-raupapatanga. Tuarua, i reira kua maha whanaketanga i roto i te kohinga, me te tātari o ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore. He rerekē nui i nga tikanga i meinga raruraru i roto i te mua e whakaaro ahau hanga reira tikanga ki te whakaaro o ratou rite enei tikanga "tūponotanga-kore tīpako 2.0." E kore e whai tatou he tikanga noatia ki tikanga tūponotanga-kore no te o hapa i tupu he roa te wa i mua.
Next, i roto i te tikanga ki te hanga atu raima tenei tautohe, ka arotake ahau tīpako tūponotanga paerewa, me te Taumaha (Wāhanga 3.4.1). Ko te whakaaro matua ko te e pehea koutou kia pānga pehea hanga koe tata kohia koutou raraunga. I roto i ngā, ki te kore e whai katoa i te taua tūponotanga o whakaurua, ka kia kore i te katoa te taua taimaha. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, ki te kahore he manapori koutou tīpako, ka kia kore e manapori koutou whakaritenga. I muri i te arotake i Nuiōrau, ka whakaahua ahau e rua ngā huarahi ki te tīpako tūponotanga-kore: kotahi e hāngai ana i runga i Nuiōrau ki te mahi ki te raruraru o te raraunga haphazardly kohia (Tekiona 3.4.2), me tetahi e tamata ki te tuu atu mana i runga i pehea te raraunga ko te kohia (Wāhanga 3.4.3). Ka nga tautohetohe i roto i te kuputuhi matua kia faataa i raro ki te kupu, me ngā pikitia; kia kite hoki kaipānui nei e rite i te maimoatanga atu pāngarau te tāpiritanga hangarau.
