kōrero atu
Hangaia tēnei wāhanga te ki kia whakamahia ano te tohutoro, nui atu i ki te pānui me te he kōrero.
- Kupu Whakataki (Wāhanga 3.1)
E rave rahi o te kaupapa i roto i tenei pene, kua hoki i faahiti i roto i ngā wāhitau peresideniraa tata i te American Association o Public Opinion Rangahau (AAPOR), pērā i Dillman (2002) , Newport (2011) , Santos (2014) , ko Link (2015) .
Hoki atu whakamārama o mua e pā ana ki te whanaketanga o te rangahau rangahau, kite Smith (1976) , me te Converse (1987) . Hoki atu i runga i te whakaaro o toru wā o rangahau rangahau, kite Groves (2011) ko Dillman, Smyth, and Christian (2008) (e wawahi ana i te wā e toru paku rerekē).
He tihi roto te whakawhitinga i te tuatahi ki te wā tuarua i roto i te rangahau rangahau ko Groves and Kahn (1979) , e mahi he taipitopito whakarite upoko-ki-upoko i waenganui i te kanohi-ki-te kanohi, me te rangahau waea. Brick and Tucker (2007) titiro hoki i te whanaketanga o mua o te mati tupurangi tikanga waea tīpako.
Atu pehea rangahau rangahau kua puta ke hoki i roto i te mua i roto i te whakautu ki ngā rerekētanga i roto i te hapori, kite Tourangeau (2004) , Mitofsky (1989) , ko Couper (2011) .
- Tono vs. te mātakitaki (Wāhanga 3.2)
Ako e pā ana ki te āhua ā-na roto i te tono pātai taea e raruraru no te mea te tahi mau taime e kore e mōhio o ratou āhua ā-nga ngā ratou. Hei tauira, Nisbett and Wilson (1977) i te pepa whakamiharo ki te taitara evocative: "tala atu atu e nehenehe ia tatou e mohio:. Pūrongo-waha i runga i ngā tukanga hinengaro" I roto i te pepa i te kaituhi faaoti: "Ko ētahi wā kaupapa (he) i mohio o te oraraa o te faaitoitoraa e nui te awe i te whakautu, (b) i mohio o te oraraa o te whakautu, me (c) möhio kua pāngia e te faaitoitoraa i te whakautu. "
No te tohenga e kia hiahia kairangahau whanonga kitea ki te whanonga korerotia waiaro ranei, kite Baumeister, Vohs, and Funder (2007) (hinengaro) ko Jerolmack and Khan (2014) me ngā whakautu (Maynard 2014; Cerulo 2014; Vaisey 2014; Jerolmack and Khan 2014) (pāpori). Te rerekētanga i waenganui i te tono, me te mātakitaki hoki whakatika i roto i te ohaoha, i reira kōrero kairangahau e pā ana ki kī a whakakitea manakohanga. Hei tauira, he kairangahau taea ui ngā ranei hiahia kai ratou ice cream ranei e haere ana ki te omaoma (manakohanga kī) ranei te rangahau taea mau hia kai iwi ice cream me haere ki te omaoma (manakohanga whakakitea). He ore te hohonu o etahi momo o kī raraunga manakohanga i roto i te ohaoha (Hausman 2012) .
He kaupapa matua i enei tautohetohe kei e kore he whanonga pūrongohia nga wa katoa tika. Otira, e kore ai e whanonga tuhia aunoa tika, e kore ai e kohia i runga i te tauira o te pānga, me te kore ai e wātea ki kairangahau. Ko te kupu, i roto i te tahi mau āhuatanga, whakaaro ahau e taea whanonga pūrongohia e whai hua. I tua atu, he kaupapa matua te rua i enei tautohetohe kei e kore e tonu tika pūrongo e pā ana ki kare, te matauranga, tūmanako, me whakaaro. Otiia, ki te e hiahiatia ngā mōhiohio e pā ana ki enei āhua ā-i kairangahau-rānei ki te āwhina i te whakamārama i te tahi whanonga ranei rite te mea ki te kia faataa-ka tono kia tika.
- Hapa rangahau Tapeke (Wāhanga 3.3)
No te maimoatanga roa pukapuka i runga i te katoa hapa rangahau, kite Groves et al. (2009) ranei Weisberg (2005) . Hoki te hītori o te whanaketanga o te katoa hapa rangahau, kite Groves and Lyberg (2010) .
I roto i ngā o te kanohi, he whakataki nui ki nga take o te whakautu-kore, me te whakautu-kore rītaha ko te pūrongo National Kaunihera Research runga Nonresponse i Social Science Surveys: He Rangahau Agenda (2013) . Whakaratohia tētahi atu tirohanga whai hua e (Groves 2006) . Ano, katoa ngā take motuhake o te Journal o Official Tatauranga, Public Opinion Quarterly, me nga meatanga o te American Academy o Tōrangapū me Social Science kua whakaputaina i runga i te kaupapa o te whakautu-kore. Heoi, i reira e mau maha ara rerekē o te tātai i te auau whakautu; E whakaahuatia enei huarahi i roto i te taipitopito i roto i te pūrongo i te American Association o Public Opinion kairangahau (AAPOR) (Public Opinion Researchers} 2015) .
Te 1936 Literary Digest pane i ako kua i roto i te taipitopito (Bryson 1976; Squire 1988; Cahalan 1989; Lusinchi 2012) . Kua hoki i whakamahia te reira i rite te kupu whakarite ki te whakatupato ki te kohikohinga raraunga kōpeka (Gayo-Avello 2011) . I roto i te 1936, whakamahia George Gallup he ahua ake mātanga o te tīpako, ka ko e taea ki te whakaputa i tata tika atu ki te tauira nui iti. Angitu o Gallup runga i te Literary Digest ko te taumata i te whanaketanga o te rangahau rangahau (Converse 1987, Ch 3; Ohmer 2006, Ch 4; Igo 2008, Ch 3) .
I roto i ngā o te inenga, he rauemi tuatahi nui mō te hoahoa pätai ko Bradburn, Sudman, and Wansink (2004) . Hoki te maimoatanga ake matatau arotahi pū i runga i ngā pātai huru, kite Schuman and Presser (1996) . Ētahi atu i runga i ngā pātai i mua whakamātau-he wātea i roto i te Presser and Blair (1994) , Presser et al. (2004) , me te Chapter 8 o Groves et al. (2009) .
Te maimoatanga classic, pukapuka-roa o te hokohoko-atu i waenganui i ngā utu rūri me hapa rangahau ko Groves (2004) .
- Ko wai ki te ui (Wāhanga 3.4)
Classic maimoatanga pukapuka-roa o te tīpako tūponotanga paerewa, me te utu i whakarite ai ko Lohr (2009) (atu tīmatanga) ko Särndal, Swensson, and Wretman (2003) (atu matatau). He maimoatanga pukapuka-roa matarohia o tikanga pou-raupapatanga me te whai pānga ko Särndal and Lundström (2005) . I roto i te tahi mau tautuhinga tau mamati, e matau ana kairangahau he moka rawa e pā ana ki-whakautu kore, kihai i nei i maha pono i roto i te mua. He taea momo rerekē o te whakautu-kore whakarerekētanga ka whai mōhiohio e pā ana kore-whakautu kairangahau (Kalton and Flores-Cervantes 2003; Smith 2011) .
Te ako Xbox o Wang et al. (2015) whakamahi i te tikanga i huaina regression maha, me te pou-raupapatanga (Mighty, ētahi wā i huaina "Mister P") e taea kairangahau ki te whakatau tata te tikanga pūtau noa i te reira e, e rave rahi maha pūtau. Ahakoa i reira he etahi tautohe e pā ana ki te kounga o te whakatau tata i tenei tikanga, te mea te reira rite te wāhi whaihua ki te tūhura. I whakamahia te tikanga tuatahi i roto i Park, Gelman, and Bafumi (2004) , a kua whakamahi muri, me te tautohetohe (Gelman 2007; Lax and Phillips 2009; Pacheco 2011; Buttice and Highton 2013; Toshkov 2015) . Hoki atu i runga i te hononga i waenganui i nga pauna takitahi me pauna e hāngai ana pūtau-kite Gelman (2007) .
Hoki ētahi atu huarahi ki te rangahau tukutuku Nuiōrau, kite Schonlau et al. (2009) , Valliant and Dever (2011) , ko Bethlehem (2010) .
Whakaarohia ōrite Tauira i e Rivers (2007) . Bethlehem (2015) tohe e te mahi tauira ōrite o ka mau kia rite ki te tahi atu huarahi tīpako (hei tauira, tīpako papanga) me ētahi atu huarahi whakatikatika (hei tauira, pou-raupapatanga). No te atu i runga i awhi ipurangi, kite Callegaro et al. (2014) .
I te tahi taime i kitea kairangahau e tauira tūponotanga me ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore hua whakatau tata o te kounga rite (Ansolabehere and Schaffner 2014) kua kitea, engari ētahi atu te whakataurite e mahi kino tauira tūponotanga-kore (Malhotra and Krosnick 2007; Yeager et al. 2011) . Kotahi tumu taea hoki enei rerekētanga ko e kua pai ake tauira tūponotanga-kore i runga i te wā. Hoki te tirohanga atu fakatu'atamaki o tikanga tīpako tūponotanga-kore kite i te te AAPOR Tūmahi Force i runga i tīpako Non-tūponotanga (Baker et al. 2013) , ka tūtohu hoki ahau te tai'oraa i te kōrero e whai te pūrongo whakarāpopoto.
Hoki te-tātaritanga meta i runga i te pānga o te Nuiōrau ki te whakaiti rītaha i roto i ngā tauira tūponotanga-kore, kite Ripanga 2.4 i roto i Tourangeau, Conrad, and Couper (2013) , e arata'i te kaituhi ki te faaoti "titiro whakatikatika ki te hei whakatikatika whai hua engari sipí. . . "
- Me pēhea te ki te ui (Wāhanga 3.5)
Conrad and Schober (2008) whakarato he rōrahi ētita ui pėhea te Interview Survey o te Future, a aro reira he tokomaha o nga kaupapa i roto i tenei wāhanga. Couper (2011) aro rite kaupapa, ko Schober et al. (2015) tuku he tauira pai o te pehea e taea tikanga kohinga raraunga e kua hāngai ki te tautuhinga hou hua i roto i te raraunga kounga teitei.
Hoki tetahi atu tauira ngā o te whakamahi i taupānga Facebook mo rangahau pūtaiao pāpori, kite Bail (2015) .
No te atu tohutohu i runga i te hanga rangahau i te wheako pārekareka, me te faufaa no te mau piahi, e kite mahi i runga i te hāngai Hoahoa Tikanga (Dillman, Smyth, and Christian 2014) .
Stone et al. (2007) tuku he maimoatanga roa pukapuka o kaiao aromatawai poto me tikanga e pā ana.
- Rangahau hono ki ētahi atu raraunga (Wāhanga 3.6)
Judson (2007) whakaahuatia te tukanga o te whakakotahi rangahau me raraunga whakahaere rite "kōmitimiti mōhiohio," e kōrero ana etahi painga o tenei huarahi, a ka tuku etahi tauira.
Ko tētahi atu huarahi e taea te whakamahi i kairangahau tohu mamati me te raraunga whakahaere ko te anga tīpako mō te iwi ki te āhuatanga motuhake. Heoi, te uru enei pūkete ki te whakamahi i te anga tīpako taea hoki te waihanga pātai e pā ana ki te tūmataiti (Beskow, Sandler, and Weinberger 2006) .
No nia i aniraa rahi roa'tu,, e kore te mea rite hou tenei huarahi rite ai puta i te reira i pehea kua whakaahuatia e ahau i te reira. He tenei huarahi hononga hohonu ki ngā wāhi e toru nui i roto i hāngai-tatauranga-tauira pou-raupapatanga (Little 1993) , peheatia ana (Rubin 2004) , me te e whakaritea e wāhi iti (Rao and Molina 2015) . Kei te pā hoki te reira ki te whakamahi o ngā taurangi a Maata i roto i te rangahau hauora (Pepe 1992) .
I tua atu ki te take matatika e pā ana te whakauru i te raraunga wahi mamati, ano taea te whakamahi aniraa rahi roa'tu, ki te ļa mau huru tairongo kore ai e whiriwhiri iwi ki te whakakitea i roto i te rangahau (Kosinski, Stillwell, and Graepel 2013) .
Nga whakatau tata utu me te wa i roto i Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) kōrero atu ki tāupe utu-te utu o tetahi utu atu rangahau-a kore e ngā whakaritea pērā i te utu ki te horoi me te tukatuka i te raraunga karanga. I roto i te whānui, ka pea i aniraa rahi roa'tu, utu tiketike whakaritea me iti utu tāupe rite ki ngā mamati (kite Chapter 4). Kōrero atu anō i runga i te raraunga whakamahia i roto i Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) pepa e i roto i Blumenstock and Eagle (2010) ko Blumenstock and Eagle (2012) . Huarahi i imputuation maha (Rubin 2004) kia tauturu i te papû ore hopu i roto i te whakatau tata i te aniraa rahi roa'tu,. Ki te hono fai rahi roa'tu, kairangahau tono anake tiaki e pā ana ki kaute töpü, nui atu i huru taumata-takitahi, na nga huarahi i roto i King and Lu (2008) ko Hopkins and King (2010) kia whai hua. Hoki atu e pā ana ki te huarahi akoranga mīhini i roto i Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , kite James et al. (2013) (nui ake tīmatanga) ranei Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman (2009) (atu matatau). Ko tētahi atu pukapuka ako mīhini rongonui ko Murphy (2012) .
No nia i aniraa taonga, nga hua i roto i Ansolabehere me Hersh (2012) kopi i runga i rua kaupae matua: 1) te kaha o Catalist ki ngā maha ngā puna raraunga kaperuatia ki te whakaputa i te datafile ariki tika, me te 2) ki te kaha o Catalist hono nga raraunga rangahau ki tona datafile ariki. Na reira, Ansolabehere me Hersh tirohia āta ia o enei kaupae.
Hei waihanga i te datafile ariki, fakatahai Catalist me'alutahi te mōhiohio i maha puna rerekē, tae atu: maha pūkete pōti pikitia i ia āhua, raraunga i Huri National o Rēhita Wāhitau te Tari o Post, me raraunga i ētahi atu kaiwhakarato arumoni kāore i. Nga kōrero äpititia e pā ana ki te pehea tupu tenei horoi katoa me te hanumitanga kei tera taha o te hōkai o tenei pukapuka, engari tenei tukanga, noa'tu eaha te tupato, ka tohaina hapa i roto i nga puna raraunga taketake a ka whakamōhio hapa. Ahakoa i pai ki te matapaki i tona tukatuka raraunga me te whakarato etahi o ona raraunga raw Catalist, ko e taea noa hoki ki kairangahau arotake te katoa Catalist paipa raraunga. Engari, ko nga kairangahau i roto i te āhuatanga i reira i te kōnae raraunga Catalist etahi unknown, a pea hia, nui o te hapa. Ko te āwangawanga nui tēnei i te mea kia kohuki te fakaanga i meinga nga rerekētanga nui i waenganui i nga pūrongo rangahau i runga i nga CCES me te whanonga i roto i te kōnae ariki raraunga Catalist e hapa i roto i te kōnae ariki raraunga, e kore i te misreporting i ngā.
ka mau Ansolabehere ko Hersh huarahi e rua rerekē ki te whakatutuki i te āwangawanga te kounga raraunga. rōpū Tuatahi, i roto i te tua ki te whakatairite pōti whaiaro-korerotia ki pōti i roto i te kōnae ariki Catalist, whakaritea hoki nga kairangahau whaiaro-korerotia, iwi, tūnga rēhita kaipōti (hei tauira, rēhitatia ranei kihai rēhita) me te tikanga pōti (hei tauira, tangata i roto i, ngaro pōti, me ētahi atu) ki te hunga uara kitea i roto i te pātengi raraunga Catalist. Hoki enei taurangi taupori wha, kitea nga kairangahau taumata nui teitei o te whakaaetanga i waenganui i te pūrongo rangahau me te raraunga i roto i te kōnae ariki, Catalist atu hoki pōti. Ko te kupu, puta te kōnae ariki raraunga Catalist ki whai mōhiohio o te kounga kairangi mō huru atu atu pōti, whakaaro e kore he reira o rawakore kounga whānui. Tuarua, i roto i te wahi te whakamahi i raraunga i Catalist, whakawhanakehia Ansolabehere me Hersh mehua rerekē e toru o te kounga o ngā pūkete pōti mataeinaa, a kitea ana ratou e ko te tino auauhia, ki tetahi o enei mehua kounga raraunga te auau whakatau tata o runga-pūrongo o pōti, he kitenga e whakaaro e kore e peia e nga taumata ki te kounga raraunga rerekē iti nga reiti nui o runga i-pūrongo.
Homai te hanganga o tenei kōnae pōti ariki, kei te hono i te puna tuarua o hapa pea nga pūkete rangahau ki reira. Hei tauira, ki te meatia tenei hononga te hē taea arahi te reira ki te runga-tata o te rerekētanga i waenganui i te whanonga pōti korerotia, ka whakamana (Neter, Maynes, and Ramanathan 1965) . Ki te i tangata katoa he, pūtāutu ahurei pūmau i roto i ngā mātāpuna raraunga e rua, ka e kia mama hononga. I roto i te tahi atu whenua US me te nuinga, Heoi, i reira he kahore pūtāutu ao. I tua atu, ara, ki te reira i taua e pea he iwi pūtāutu e feaa ki te whakarato i te reira ki te ruri kairangahau! Ko te kupu, i Catalist ki te mahi i te hononga mā te pūwehe tia, i roto i tenei take e wha nga wahi o te kōrero e pā ana ki ia kaiurupare: ingoa, te ira tangata, whanau tau, me te wāhitau kāinga. Hei tauira, i Catalist ki te whakatau, ki te ko te homie J Simpson i roto i te CCES te tangata rite te Homer Jay Simpson i roto i to ratou kōnae ariki raraunga. I roto i te mahi, mo te mea he tukanga uaua, me te pōrohe, a, ki te hanga mea kino mo te kairangahau, whakaaro Catalist tona tikanga ōrite ki te kia kamupene.
I roto i te tikanga ki te whakamana i te hātepe ōrite, i okioki ratou ki runga ki e rua tamataraa. Tuatahi, kau Catalist i roto i te whakataetae mo e i rere e te motuhake, tuatoru-rōpū: te Mitre Corporation. whakaratohia Mitre kaiuru katoa e rua ngā kōnae raraunga ngangau ki te kia āu, a whakataetae kapa rerekē ki te hoki ki Mitre te ōrite pai. No te mea mohio Mitre ano te ōrite tika i taea ki te piro i te kapa ratou. O nga kamupene 40 i whakataetae, ka haere mai Catalist i te wahi tuarua. Ko te tino onge, me te nui mīharo tenei ahua o motuhake, te aro mātai tuatoru-rōpū o te hangarau kamupene; kia homai te reira ia tatou whakawhirinaki e ngā tukanga ōrite o Catalist e tino i te kāwanatanga-o-te-toi. Ko Ko te āhua-o-te-toi pai nui? I tua atu ki tenei whakataetae ōrite, hanga Ansolabehere me Hersh ratou ake wero ōrite mō Catalist. Mai i te kaupapa mua, kohia Ansolabehere me Hersh i ngā pūkete kaipōti i Florida. whakaratohia e ratou etahi o enei pūkete ki etahi o redacted ki Catalist me ka whakaritea pūrongo a Catalist o enei mara ki a ratou uara tūturu ratou mara. Aua'e, i tata ki te uara i kaiponuhia pūrongo a Catalist, tohu e taea e Catalist ōrite pūkete kaipōti wāhanga ki runga to ratou kōnae ariki raraunga. Enei mau tamataraa e rua, kotahi i te-rōpū tuatoru, me te kotahi e Ansolabehere ko Hersh, hoatu matou ake whakaaro i roto i te hātepe ōrite Catalist, ahakoa e kore e taea e tatou te arotake ratou whakatinanatanga tangohia tatou.
He kua maha whakamātau o mua ki te whakamana pōti. Hoki te tirohanga o taua tuhinga, kite Belli et al. (1999) , Berent, Krosnick, and Lupia (2011) , Ansolabehere and Hersh (2012) , ko Hanmer, Banks, and White (2014) .
He mea nui ki te mōhio e ahakoa i roto i tenei take i ākina kairangahau i te kounga o ngā raraunga i Catalist, kua iti anaanatae atu aromātai o kaihoko arumoni. Kua kitea kairangahau kounga rawakore, no te raraunga i te rangahau ki te-kōnae kiritaki i Marketing Systems Group (i hanumi iho tahi raraunga i kaiwhakarato e toru: Acxiom, Experian, ko InfoUSA) (Pasek et al. 2014) . E ko, te kōnae raraunga kihai i ōrite urupare rangahau e kairangahau tūmanakohia ki kia tika, i ngaro raraunga mo te tokomaha nui o ngā pātai, me te tauira raraunga ngaro i fakafekau'aki te datafile ki uara rangahau korerotia (i roto i te kupu atu ko nahanaha te raraunga ngaro , e kore tupurangi).
No te atu i runga i record kōtuituitanga i waenganui i ngā rangahau me raraunga whakahaere, kite Sakshaug and Kreuter (2012) me te Schnell (2013) . No te atu i runga i record hononga i roto i te whānui, kite Dunn (1946) ko Fellegi and Sunter (1969) (o mua) ko Larsen and Winkler (2014) (hou). Kua whakawhanakehia huarahi e rite ano i roto i te pūtaiao rorohiko i raro i te ingoa pērā i deduplication raraunga, tāututanga tauira, ōrite ingoa, rapunga tārite, ka tārua record rapunga (Elmagarmid, Ipeirotis, and Verykios 2007) . He hoki tūmataiti tiaki huarahi ki te tuhi hononga e kore e nei i rapua e te tuku o te tāutu fakafo'ituitui mōhiohio (Schnell 2013) . Whakawhanakehia ngā kairangahau i Facebook he tukanga ki te hono probabilisticsly ratou pūkete ki te whanonga pōti (Jones et al. 2013) ; I meatia tenei hononga ki te aromātai i te whakamātau e ka korerotia e ahau ki a koutou e pā ana ki i roto i te Pene 4 (Bond et al. 2012) .
Ko tētahi atu tauira o hono i te rangahau pāpori nui-tauine ki kāwanatanga pūkete whakahaere mai i te Hauora, a Retirement Survey me te Whakahaere Social Security. No te atu i runga i taua ako, tae atu ki ngā kōrero e pā ana ki te tukanga whakaaetanga, kite Olson (1996) me te Olson (1999) .
Te tukanga o te whakakotahi maha puna o ngā pūkete whakahaere ki te datafile-te ariki tukanga e Catalist kaimahi he-noa i roto i nga tari tauanga o te tahi mau kāwanatanga motu. E rua kairangahau i Statistics Sweden kua tuhituhia he pukapuka taipitopito i runga i te kaupapa (Wallgren and Wallgren 2007) . Hoki te tauira o tenei huarahi i roto i te mataeinaa kotahi i roto i te Hau Amui no Marite (Olmstead County, Minnesota; kāinga o te Mayo Clinic), kite Sauver et al. (2011) . No te atu i runga i hapa e taea kitea i roto i ngā pūkete whakahaere, kite Groen (2012) .
