4.5.1.2 Ua koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam

Lub tsev koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam tej zaum yuav kim, tab sis nws yuav pab kom koj mus ua tau ib lub xyaum ua tej yam uas koj xav tau.

Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus overlaying thwmsim rau sab saum toj ntawm uas twb muaj lawm tej kev kawm, koj muaj peev xwm kuj tsim koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam. Lub ntsiab kom zoo dua ntawm no mus kom ze yog tswj; yog hais tias koj tsim tau lub sim, koj muaj peev xwm tsim ib puag ncig thiab kev kho mob uas koj xav tau. Cov bespoke sim kawm muaj peev xwm tsim txuj los ntsuam xyuas theories uas tsis tau mus kuaj nyob rau hauv lawm tshwm sim tej kev kawm. Lub ntsiab drawbacks ntawm lub tsev koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam yog hais tias nws yuav yuav kim thiab hais tias cov ib puag ncig uas koj muaj peev xwm tsim tau tej zaum yuav tsis muaj realism ntawm ib tug lawm zom zaws system. Soj ntsuam lub tsev lawv tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam kuj yuav tsum muaj ib lub tswv yim rau recruiting koom. Thaum ua hauj lwm nyob rau hauv uas twb muaj lawm systems, soj ntsuam no yeej tseem zoo nqa lub thwmsim rau lawv koom. Tiam sis, thaum kev soj ntsuam ntawm lawv muaj lawv tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam, lawv yuav tsum tau coj cov neeg rau nws. Qhov zoo ces, cov kev pab xws li Amazon Neeg kho tshuab Turk (MTurk) yuav muab tau kev soj ntsuam ib tug yooj yim txoj kev uas yuav coj koom rau lawv thwmsim.

Ib tug piv txwv uas qhia tias virtues ntawm bespoke kev kawm rau kev soj ntsuam paub daws teeb theories yog cov lab xyaum ua tej yam los ntawm Gregory Huber, Seth Hill, thiab Gabriel Lenz (2012) . Lub xyaum ua tej yam txog ib tug ua tau tswv yim kev txwv mus rau lub hauj lwm ntawm kev ywj pheej tswj. Nyuam qhuav pib uas tsis yog-kev sim kev tshawb fawb ntawm tiag tiag kev xaiv tsa hais tias cov neeg xaiv tsa yog tsis muaj peev xwm los yog kev ntsuam xyuas qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm incumbent politicians. Nyob rau hauv kev, cov neeg xaiv tsa tshwm sim raug kev txom nyem los ntawm peb biases: 1) teem rau tsis ntev los no es tsis nrheev kev kawm; 2) manipulatable los ntawm rhetoric, framing, thiab marketing; thiab 3) los ntawm cov txheej xwm txheeb ze rau incumbent kev kawm, xws li txoj kev vam meej ntawm lub zos cov kev ua si pab neeg thiab cov huab cua. Nyob rau hauv cov ua ntej lawm kev tshawb fawb, tiam sis, nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau cais tawm ib yam ntawm cov yam tseem ceeb los ntawm tag nrho cov lwm yam khoom uas tshwm sim nyob rau hauv tiag tiag, ntxhov kev xaiv tsa. Yog li ntawd, Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv tsim ib tug heev yooj yim zog pov ntawv xaiv tsa ib puag ncig nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav cais, thiab ces experimentally kawm, txhua tus ntawm cov peb tau biases.

Raws li kuv piav txog cov kev sim set-up hauv qab no nws yog mus rau lub suab heev dag, tab sis nco ntsoov hais tias realism tsis yog ib tug lub hom phiaj nyob rau hauv lab-style thwmsim. Tiam sis, tus hom phiaj yog kom meej meej cais tawm cov txheej txheem uas koj tseem tabtom mus kawm ntawv, thiab qhov no kaw ntom nti ua kev rho tawm yog tej zaum kuj tsis tau nyob rau hauv cov kev tshawb fawb uas muaj ntau realism (Falk and Heckman 2009) . Ntxiv mus, nyob rau hauv no xyov cov ntaub ntawv, cov kev soj ntsuam sib cav hais tias yog cov neeg xaiv tsa yuav tsis zoo soj ntsuam kev kawm nyob rau hauv no mas yooj yim to taub qhov chaw, ces lawv tsis yuav mus yuav tau ua nws nyob rau hauv ib tug ntau tseeb, ntau qhov chaw.

Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv siv Amazon Neeg kho tshuab Turk (MTurk) kom txhij koom. Thaum ib tug neeg muab kev tso cai thiab dhau ib tug luv luv xeem, nws twb hais tias nws twb koom nyob rau hauv ib tug 32 round kev ua si mus khwv tau tokens uas yuav tsum tau hloov dua siab tshiab rau hauv nyiaj tiag. Thaum pib qhov kev ua si, txhua tus neeg twb hais tias nws twb tau muab ib tug "allocator" uas yuav muab nws free tokens txhua puag ncig thiab hais tias ib co allocators ntau lub siab dawb siab tshaj lwm leej lwm tus. Ntxiv mus, txhua tus neeg twb tseem hais tias nws yuav muaj ib lub caij nyoog los yog kom nws allocator los yog yuav tau muab ib tug tshiab ib tug tom qab 16 rounds ntawm qhov kev ua si. Muab koj paub dab tsi txog Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv 'kev tshawb fawb hom phiaj, koj muaj peev xwm pom tau tias cov allocator nruab nrab yog ib tug tsoom fwv thiab qhov kev xaiv sawv cev rau kev xaiv tsa, tab sis koom tsis paub txog cov kev cov hom phiaj ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb. Nyob rau hauv tag nrho, Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv recruited txog 4,000 koom uas raug them txog $ 1.25 rau ib tug neeg ua hauj lwm uas muab txog 8 feeb.

Nco qab hais tias ib tug ntawm cov uas nrhiav tau los ntawm ua ntej lawm kev tshawb fawb yog tias lub tsheb qub nqi zog thiab rau txim rau incumbents rau tau uas yog kom meej meej tshaj lawv tswj, xws li txoj kev vam meej ntawm lub zos cov kev ua si ua ke thiab cov huab cua. Yuav kom ntsuam xyuas seb cov neeg pov ntawv xaiv tsa kev txiav txim siab yuav tsum tau muab los ntawm purely random txheej xwm nyob rau hauv lawv cov chaw, Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv ntxiv ib lottery mus rau lawv sim system. Thaum yog lub 8 round los yog lub 16th round (ie, txoj cai ua ntej lub sij hawm los hloov lub allocator) koom tau across muab tso rau hauv ib tug lottery qhov twg ib txhia yeej 5000 cov ntsiab lus, ib txhia yeej 0 cov ntsiab lus, thiab ib co poob 5000 ntsiab lus. Qhov no lottery twb npaj ntsi xws li zoo los yog phem xov xwm hais tias yog yus qhov kev kawm ntawm cov politician. Txawm tias cov neeg raug ntsees hais tias rho npe yog txheeb ze rau qhov kev kawm ntawm lawv cov allocator, lub sij hawm ntawm lub lottery tseem raug koom kev txiav txim siab. Cov neeg koom uas pab los ntawm cov lottery twb yuav kom lawv allocator, thiab qhov no ua rau yog muaj zog thaum lub lottery tshwm sim nyob rau hauv round 16-txoj cai ua ntej cov kev hloov kev txiav txim siab-tshaj thaum nws tshwm sim nyob rau hauv round 8 (Daim duab 4.14). Cov kev tshwm sim, nrog rau cov kev tshwm sim ntawm lwm cov kev nyob rau hauv daim ntawv, coj Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv los xaus hais tias txawm nyob rau hauv ib tug yooj yim to taub qhov chaw, cov neeg xaiv tsa muaj teeb meem ua paub qab hau kev txiav txim siab, ib tug tshwm sim uas raug yav tom ntej kev tshawb fawb txog pov ntawv xaiv tsa kev txiav txim siab (Healy and Malhotra 2013) . Lub xyaum ua tej yam ntawm Huber thiab lug txhawb cov miv qhia tau hais tias MTurk yuav siv tau kom txhij koom rau lab-style thwmsim rau precisely sim heev txog theories. Nws kuj qhia tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm lub tsev koj tus kheej sim ib puag ncig: nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau xav txog tej yam yuav ua li cas cov tib dab yuav tau muab cais tawm li cleanly nyob rau hauv tej lwm qhov chaw.

Daim duab 4.14: tau los ntawm Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) . Cov neeg koom uas pab los ntawm cov lottery twb ntau yuav khaws lawv cov allocator, thiab qhov no ua rau yog muaj zog thaum lub lottery tshwm sim nyob rau hauv round 16-txoj cai ua ntej cov kev hloov kev txiav txim siab-tshaj thaum nws tshwm sim nyob rau hauv round 8.

Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus tsev lab-zoo li thwmsim, soj ntsuam ntawm muaj peev xwm kuj tsim thwmsim uas muaj ntau teb zoo li. Piv txwv li, Centola (2010) ua ib cov teb xyaum ua tej yam kawm cov nyhuv ntawm kev network qauv rau kis ntawm tus cwj pwm. Nws kev tshawb fawb lo lus nug yuav tsum tau nws mus soj ntsuam cov cwj pwm qub kis nyob rau hauv coob uas muaj ntau cov kev network lug tab sis twb tsis indistinguishable. Tib txoj kev ua li no yog nrog ib tug bespoke, kev cai-los ua xyaum ua tej yam. Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, Centola los ua ib tug web-based noj qab haus huv lub zej lub zos.

Centola recruited txog 1,500 koom nrog advertising rau kev kho mob websites. Thaum cov neeg tuaj koom los txog ntawm qhov online zej zog-uas hu ua Healthy Txoj kev ua neej Network-lawv muab kev tso cai thiab ces tau muab "noj qab haus huv buddies." Vim hais tias ntawm txoj kev Centola muab cov kev kho mob buddies nws muaj peev xwm xaws ua ke sib txawv kev network lug nyob rau hauv txawv pab pawg. Ib txhia pab pawg tau ua kom muaj random tes hauj lwm (nyob qhov twg txhua leej txhua tus yog Attendance yuav tsum txuas) thiab lwm cov pab pawg twb ua tau rau muaj clustered tes hauj lwm (nyob qhov twg sib txuas yog ntau zos tuab). Ces, Centola qhia ib tug tshiab tus cwj pwm mus rau hauv txhua network, lub sij hawm mus sau npe rau ib lub website tshiab nrog ntxiv ntaub ntawv kho mob. Thaum twg leej twg kos npe rau no lub website tshiab, tag nrho cov ntawm nws noj qab haus huv buddies tau txais ib qho email tshaj tawm cwj pwm no. Centola pom hais tias qhov no coj tus cwj pwm-kos npe-up rau tus tshiab lub website kis ntxiv thiab sai nyob rau hauv lub clustered network tshaj lub random network, nrhiav tau hais tias yog tsis tooj mus rau ib co uas twb muaj lawm theories.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, lub tsev koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam muab rau koj ntau npaum li cas tswj; nws enables koj yuav tsim qhov zoo tshaj plaws tau ib puag ncig cais tawm dab tsi koj xav kawm. Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau xav txog tej yam yuav ua li cas tog twg los ntawm cov kev yuav tau ua nyob rau hauv ib tug twb uas twb muaj lawm ib puag ncig. Ntxiv mus, lub tsev ntawm koj tus kheej txo koom kev txhawj xeeb nyob ib ncig ntawm xyaum nyob rau hauv uas twb muaj lawm systems. Thaum koj ua koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam, Txawm li cas los, koj khiav mus rau ntau ntawm cov teeb meem uas ntsib nyob rau hauv lab thwmsim: recruiting koom thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog realism. Ib tug zaum kawg downside yog tias lub tsev koj tus kheej xyaum ua tej yam yuav ua tau kim heev thiab lub sij hawm-siv, txawm hais tias raws li cov piv txwv qhia, lub thwmsim yuav thaj tsam li ntawm kuj yooj yim kev kawm (xws li kev kawm txog cov pov npav los ntawm Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) ) rau kuj complex kev kawm (xws li kev kawm txog cov hauj lwm thiab Contagion los ntawm Centola (2010) ).