4.6 tswv yim
Seb koj yuav ua li nws tus kheej los yog ua hauj lwm nrog ib tug khub, Kuv xav kom muaj ob daim ntawm tswv yim hais tias kuv twb pom tshwj xeeb yuav pab tau nyob rau hauv kuv tus kheej ua hauj lwm. Ua ntej, xav tias ntau li ntau tau ua ntej tej ntaub ntawv tau raug sau. Cov tswv yim no tej zaum nkawd pom soj ntsuam accustomed mus khiav thwmsim, tab sis nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev rau kev soj ntsuam accustomed mus rau ua hauj lwm nrog loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw (saib Tshooj 2). Nrog loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw feem ntau ntawm cov chaw ua hauj lwm li cas tom qab koj muaj cov ntaub ntawv, tab sis thwmsim yog cov opposite; feem ntau ntawm cov chaw ua hauj lwm yuav tsum tshwm sim ua ntej koj sau cov ntaub ntawv. Ib tug ntawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws txoj kev yuam koj tus kheej mus ua tib zoo xav txog koj cov kev tsim thiab tsom xam yog los tsim thiab sau npe rau kev tsom xam kev npaj rau koj xyaum ua tej yam. Qhov zoo ces, muaj ntau yam ntawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws-kev coj rau lub tsom xam ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tau raug muaj kev mus rau hauv qhia cov lus qhia, thiab cov kev cai yog ib qhov chaw zoo mus pib ua thaum tsim koj tsom xam cov kev npaj (Schulz et al. 2010; Gerber et al. 2014; Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) .
Qhov thib ob piece ntawm tswv yim yog hais tias tsis muaj ib tug xyaum ua tej yam yuav tsum zoo tag nrho, thiab vim hais tias, koj yuav tsum tau sim los tsim ib tug series ntawm kev txhawb txhua lwm yam. Kuv twb txawm hnov no piav raws li lub armada zoo; es sim ua ib tug loj heev battleship, tej zaum koj yuav zoo dua lub tsev ntau ntau ntawm me me ships nrog complementary txawj. Tej kev multi-xyaum ua tej yam kev tshawb fawb yog niaj hnub ua nyob rau hauv psychology, tab sis lawv tsis tshua muaj rau lwm qhov chaw. Qhov zoo ces, qhov uas tsis muaj nqi ntawm tej cov thwmsim ua rau cov hom ntawm multi-xyaum ua tej yam kawm yooj yim dua.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kuv xav kom muaj ob daim ntawm cov tswv yim uas yog tsis tshua muaj heev tam sim no tab sis yog tshwj xeeb yog ib qho tseem ceeb vim cov muaj hnub nyoog thwmsim: tsim pes tsawg marginal nqi ntaub ntawv thiab tsim ethics rau hauv koj tsim.
