Kev ua ub no

Ntsiab:

• degree ntawm teeb meem: ib qho yooj yim , medium , nyuaj , Nyuaj
• yuav tsum tau kev ua lej ( )
• yuav tsum tau cai ( )
• cov ntaub ntawv sau ( )
• kuv favorites ( )

1. [ , ] Berinsky thiab lug txhawb cov miv (2012) ntsuas Neeg kho tshuab Turk nyob rau hauv ib feem los ntawm replicating peb classic thwmsim. Replicate lub classic Neeg Esxias Kab Mob framing xyaum ua tej yam los ntawm Tversky and Kahneman (1981) . Ua koj tau match Tversky thiab Kahneman tus? Ua koj tau match Berinsky thiab lug txhawb cov miv? Yuav ua li cas-yog dab tsi-no qhia rau peb hais txog kev siv Neeg kho tshuab Turk rau daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas thwmsim?

2. [ , ] Nyob rau hauv ib tug dog dig tus nplaig-nyob rau hauv-sab plhu daim ntawv hu ua "Peb Muaj rau Zom Up," cov kev sib raug kev puas siab ntsws Robert Cialdini, ib tug ntawm tus sau phau ntawv ntawm Schultz et al. (2007) , sau hais tias nws tau retiring thaum ntxov los ntawm nws txoj hauj lwm raws li ib tug xib fwb, nyob rau hauv ib feem vim hais tias ntawm txoj kev sib tw nws ntsib ua teb thwmsim nyob rau hauv ib tug qhuab qhia (psychology) uas mas ua lab thwmsim (Cialdini 2009) . Nyeem Cialdini tus ntawv, thiab sau ntawv rau nws ib tug email urging nws mus rau reconsider nws so-up nyob rau hauv lub teeb ntawm lub possibilities ntawm cov thwmsim. Siv tej piv txwv ntawm kev tshawb fawb uas nyob nws kev txhawj xeeb.

3. [ ] Nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim los txiav txim seb me me thawj zaug successes xauv-nyob rau hauv los yog ploj tam sim ntawd, van de Rijt thiab thiab lug txhawb cov miv (2014) intervened rau hauv plaub txawv systems muab kev vam meej rau across xaiv neeg koom, thiab ces ntsuas lub sij hawm ntev impacts ntawm no arbitrary kev vam meej. Yuav koj xav seb lwm systems nyob rau hauv uas koj yuav khiav zoo xws li cov thwmsim? Soj ntsuam cov tshuab nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov teeb meem ntawm kev nqis, algorithmic rhuav (saib Tshooj 2), thiab ethics.

4. [ , ] Qhov kev tshwm sim ntawm ib tug xyaum ua tej yam yuav nyob ntawm seb cov neeg koom. Tsim ib tug xyaum ua tej yam thiab ces khiav nws nyob rau Amazon Neeg kho tshuab Turk (MTurk) siv ob tug sib txawv recruitment tswv yim. Sim los khaws cov xyaum ua tej yam thiab nrhiav tswv yim li hais tias cov kev tshwm sim yuav tsum yog raws li ntau li sai tau. Piv txwv li, koj nrhiav cov tswv yim yuav tsum mus nrhiav cov neeg nyob rau hauv lub yav sawv ntxov thiab yav tsaus ntuj los yog pab kom txawm peem koom nrog siab thiab uas tsis muaj nyiaj them. Tej kev sib txawv nyob rau hauv kev nrhiav neeg zoo yuav ua rau sib txawv dej ntawm cov neeg thiab txawv sim tau. Yuav ua li cas txawv ho koj tau tig tawm? Qhov ntawd qhia li cas txog khiav thwmsim rau MTurk?

5. [ , , , ] Xav txog tej yam uas koj tau npaj lub Emotional Contagion txoj kev tshawb no (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) . Siv cov kev tshwm sim los ntawm ib tug ua ntej lawm observational txoj kev tshawb no los ntawm Kramer (2012) los mus txiav txim tus xov tooj ntawm cov neeg koom nyob rau hauv txhua yam kev mob. Cov ob cov kev tshawb fawb tsis phim txig li ntawd yuav tsum ntsees sau tag nrho cov kev xav hais tias koj ua:

   1. Khiav ib simulation uas yuav txiav txim siab yuav ua li cas muaj ntau yam neeg tuaj koom yuav tau yuav tsum tau mus ntes ib cov nyhuv loj li cov nyhuv nyob rau hauv Kramer (2012) nrog \ (\ alpha = 0.05 \) thiab \ (1 - \ beta = 0.8 \).
   2. Ua tib yam li xam analytically.
   3. Muab cov kev tshwm sim los ntawm Kramer (2012) twb Emotional Contagion (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) tshaj-powered (ie, puas tau nws muaj ntau tuaj koom tshaj yuav tsum tau)?
   4. Ntawm kev xav hais tias koj ua, uas muaj lub biggest ntxim rau koj muab xam?

6. [ , , , ] Teb cov nqe lus nug saum toj no, tab sis es tsis siv cov ua ntej lawm observational txoj kev tshawb no los ntawm Kramer (2012) siv cov kev tshwm sim los ntawm ib tug ua ntej lawm tej yam ntuj tso xyaum ua tej yam los ntawm Coviello et al. (2014) .

7. [ ] Ob Rijt et al. (2014) thiab Margetts et al. (2011) ob ua thwmsim uas kawm tus txheej txheem ntawm cov neeg kos npe rau ib tsab ntawv foob. Sib piv thiab txawv qhov tsim thiab nrhiav tau ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb.

8. [ ] Dwyer, Maki, and Rothman (2015) ua ob teb thwmsim rau lub kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev sib raug zoo kev cai thiab proenvironmental tus cwj pwm. Ntawm no yog cov paub daws teeb ntawm lawv daim ntawv:

   "Yuav ua li cas tej zaum yuav puas siab puas ntsws science yuav siv los txhawb kom proenvironmental tus cwj pwm? Nyob rau hauv ob cov kev tshawb fawb, kev pab tswj txhawb zog txuag tus cwj pwm nyob rau hauv pej xeem chav dej maum kuaj cov influences ntawm piav cai thiab kev lav ris. Nyob rau hauv txoj kev tshawb no 1, lub teeb raws li txoj cai (ie, los yog tua) twb manipulated ua ntej ib tug neeg nkag mus hauv ib tug unoccupied pej xeem lub chav da dej, taw lub descriptive cai rau cov uas qhov chaw. Cov neeg koom tau ho yuav tig lub teeb tawm yog hais tias lawv twb tawm thaum lawv nkag mus hauv. Nyob rau hauv txoj kev tshawb no 2, ib qho ntxiv mob twb muaj nyob rau hauv uas lub cai ntawm tig tawm lub teeb twb pom hais tias los ntawm ib tug koom tes, tab sis koom tsis tau lawv tus kheej lub luag hauj lwm rau txoj siav nws nyob. Tej luag hauj lwm moderated tus ntawm kev cai rau kev coj cwj pwm; thaum koom tsis lub luag hauj lwm rau txoj siav nyob rau hauv cov teeb, tus ntawm cov norm twb mus zuj zus. Cov tau qhia yuav ua li cas piav txog kev cai thiab kev lav ris yuav tswj cov hauj lwm zoo ntawm proenvironmental pab. "

   Nyeem cov ntawv thiab tsim ib tug replication ntawm txoj kev tshawb 1.

9. [ , ] Tsev rau ntawm lub yav dhau los lo lus nug, tam sim no nqa tawm koj tsim.

   1. Yuav ua li cas lub ntsiab piv?
   2. Yuav ua li cas tej zaum yuav piav qhia txog cov kev sib txawv?

10. [ ] Muaj tau ntau yam pauv loj sib cav tswv yim hais txog kev siv cov neeg recruited los ntawm Amazon Neeg kho tshuab Turk. Nyob rau hauv parallel, muaj kuj tau ntau yam pauv loj sib cav tswv yim hais txog kev siv cov neeg recruited los ntawm undergraduate tub ntxhais kawm ntawv. Sau ib ob-nplooj memo muab piv thiab contrasting lub Turkers thiab undergraduates li kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov neeg tuaj koom. Koj kev sib piv yuav tsum muaj xws li ib tug kev sib tham ntawm ob scientific thiab logistical teeb meem.

11. [ ] Jim Manzi phau ntawv tswj (2012) yog ib tug zoo kawg nkaus taw qhia mus rau hauv lub hwj chim ntawm kws nyob rau hauv lub lag luam. Nyob rau hauv phau ntawv nws relayed no zaj dab neeg:

    "Kuv yog ib zaug nyob rau hauv ib tug lub rooj sib tham nrog ib tug yeej muaj tseeb ua lag ua luam ntse heev, ib tug self-ua billionaire uas muaj ib tug sib sib zog nqus, intuitive understating ntawm lub hwj chim ntawm kev. Nws lub tuam txhab siv tseem ceeb kev pab ua los ua lub khw muag khoom qhov rais qhia uas yuav nyiam cov kev pab thiab nce muag khoom, raws li cov pa txhab hais tias lawv yuav tsum. Kws txawj ua tib zoo soj ntsuam tsim tom qab tsim, thiab nyob rau hauv ib tug neeg kuaj xyuas zaug dua ib lub sij hawm ntawm lub xyoo khaws cia uas qhia tsis muaj teeb meem loj causal nyhuv ntawm txhua tshiab zaub tsim rau cov muag khoom. Senior li thiab nyob rau hauv MERCHANDISING executives tau ntsib nrog tus CEO los saib xyuas cov keeb kwm xeem tau nyob rau hauv toto. Tom qab qhia tag nrho cov kev sim ntaub ntawv, lawv xaus lus tias tus pa txhab yog tsis ncaj ncees lawm-uas lub qhov rais qhia tsis txhob tsav tsheb muag khoom. Lawv pom zoo txiav txim yog los txo cov nqi thiab kev rau siab nyob rau hauv cheeb tsam no. Qhov no dramatically pom lub peev xwm ntawm experimentation rau ntxeev pa txawj ntse. Cov CEO teb yog yooj yim: 'Kuv xaus yog hais tias koj designers yog tsis zoo heev.' Nws tshuaj yog kom rau siab nyob rau hauv lub khw muag khoom zaub, thiab cov yuav tau txais cov neeg tshiab mus ua nws. " (Manzi 2012, 158–9)

    Hom kev validity yog cov kev txhawj xeeb ntawm cov CEO?

12. [ ] Tsev rau ntawm lub yav dhau los lo lus nug, xav txog tej yam uas koj twb nyob rau lub rooj sib tham qhov twg cov kev tshwm sim ntawm lub thwmsim tau los sib tham. Yuav ua li cas yog plaub cov lus nug uas koj yuav nug, ib qho rau txhua hom ntawm validity (statistical, txua, nrog, thiab lwm)?

13. [ ] Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) kawm rau hauv lub xya-xyoo nyhuv ntawm cov dej txuag pab piav nyob rau hauv Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) (saib daim duab 4.10). Nyob rau hauv daim ntawv no, Bernedo thiab lug txhawb cov miv kuj nrhiav kev to taub lub mechanism qab cov nyhuv los ntawm muab piv rau cov coj cwj pwm ntawm cov tsev neeg uas muaj thiab tsis tau txav mus tom qab cov kev kho mob twb xa. Uas yog, roughly, lawv sim saib seb cov kev kho mob uas raug rau cov tsev los yog lub homeowner.

    1. Nyeem daim ntawv, piav qhia txog lawv cov tsim, thiab saib lub ntsab lug lawv tshawb pom. b) Tsis lawv tshawb pom kev cuam tshuam li cas koj yuav tsum tau ntsuam xyuas tus nqi-hauj lwm zoo ntawm zoo xws li cov kev pab? Yog hais tias yog li ntawd, vim li cas? Yog hais tias tsis yog, yog vim li cas tsis tau?

14. [ ] Nyob rau hauv ib qab-up rau Schultz et al. (2007) , Schultz thiab lug txhawb cov miv ua ib tug series ntawm peb thwmsim rau cov nyhuv ntawm piav thiab injunctive cai rau ib tug sib txawv tej kev coj cwj pwm (phuam rov qab siv lub) nyob rau hauv ob cov ntsiab lus (ib lub tsev so thiab ib tug timeshare chav) (Schultz, Khazian, and Zaleski 2008) .

    1. Saib lub ntsab lug tsim thiab nrhiav tau ntawm no peb thwmsim.
    2. Yuav ua li cas, yog hais tias tag nrho cov, ua lawv hloov koj txhais ntawm Schultz et al. (2007) ?

15. [ ] Nyob rau hauv cov lus teb rau Schultz et al. (2007) , Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) khiav ib tug series ntawm lab zoo li thwmsim kawm tsim ntawm hluav taws xob nqi. Ntawm no yog yuav ua li cas lawv piav txog nws nyob rau hauv cov abstract:

    "Nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas raws li xyaum ua tej yam, txhua tus neeg pom ib tug hypothetical hluav taws xob nqi rau ib tsev neeg nrog kuj muaj hluav taws xob siv, yuav tsum vov ntaub ntawv hais txog (a) keeb kwm siv, (b) cov kev sib piv rau cov neeg nyob ze, thiab (c) keeb kwm kev siv nrog kws neej puas. Cov neeg koom pom tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv hom nyob rau hauv ib tug ntawm peb tawm tswv yim nrog (a) ntxhuav, (b) bar graphs, thiab (c) icon graphs. Peb qhia rau peb lub ntsiab tshawb pom. Ua ntej, tau txais kev pab to taub txhua yam uas hluav taws xob-siv ntaub ntawv ntau tshaj plaws thaum nws tau nyob rau hauv ib lub rooj, tej zaum vim hais tias cov ntxhuav pab txhawb yooj yim point nyeem ntawv. Ob, nyiam thiab kev xa mus cawm hluav taws xob yog cov muaj zog rau lub keeb kwm kev siv ntaub ntawv, ywj siab ntawm hom ntawv. Peb, cov neeg uas qis zog nyeem ntawv to taub tag nrho cov lus qhia tsawg. "

    Tsis zoo li lwm yam ua raws li kev tshawb fawb-up, lub ntsiab ua tau ntawm kev txaus siab nyob rau hauv Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) yog qhia tus cwj pwm tsis tiag tiag tus cwj pwm. Yuav ua li cas yog cov kev txawj thiab weaknesses ntawm no hom ntawm txoj kev tshawb nyob rau hauv ib tug dav heev kev tshawb fawb kev pab cuam txhawb zog savings?

16. [ , ] Smith and Pell (2003) yog ib tug satirical meta-tsom xam ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb qhia cov hauj lwm zoo ntawm parachutes. Lawv xaus:

    "Raws li nrog rau ntau yam kev pab los tiv thaiv kom txhob mob noj qab haus huv, cov hauj lwm zoo ntawm parachutes tsis tau raug rau cov kev kawm kev soj ntsuam los ntawm kev siv xaiv tswj kev nyuaj siab. Advocates ntawm cov pov thawj raws li cov tshuaj muaj criticized qhov saws me nyuam ntawm kev pab soj ntsuam los ntawm kev siv tsuas observational cov ntaub ntawv. Peb xav hais tias txhua leej txhua tus yuav tau txais txiaj ntsim, yog hais tias lub feem ntau radical protagonists ntawm cov pov thawj raws li cov tshuaj koom thiab koom nyob rau hauv ib tug muab ob npaug rau cov dig muag, randomized, placebo tswj, crossover mus sib hais ntawm lub kaus poob los. "

    Sau ib tug op-ed haum rau ib tug general readership ntawv xov xwm, xws li Tus New York Times, sib cav sib tiv thaiv cov fetishization ntawm kev sim cov pov thawj. Muab kev, ua vaj tse piv txwv. Hint: Saib kuj, Bothwell et al. (2016) thiab Deaton (2010)

17. [ , , ] Qhov sib txawv-nyob rau hauv-txawv estimators ntawm ib tug kev kho mob nyhuv yuav ua tau ntau leej dua txawv-nyob rau hauv-mean estimators. Sau ib tug memo rau ib tug engineer nyob rau hauv them nyiaj ntawm A / B xeem ntawm ib tug start-up kev tawm tuam txhab piav qhia txog tus nqi ntawm qhov txawv-nyob rau hauv-kev txawv mus kom ze rau khiav ib qho hauv internet xyaum ua tej yam. Lub memo yuav tsum muaj xws li ib daim ntawv qhia txog qhov teeb meem, ib txhia qhov txog cov tej yam kev mob nyob rau hauv uas qhov txawv-nyob rau hauv-txawv Estimator yuav outperform qhov txawv-nyob rau hauv-mean Estimator, thiab ib tug yooj yim simulation kev kawm.

18. [ , ] Gary Loveman yog ib tug xib fwb ntawm Harvard ua lag ua luam Tsev Kawm Ntawv ua ntej ua tus CEO ntawm Harrah tus, ib tug ntawm cov loj tshaj plaws twv txiaj yuam pov tuam txhab uas muag nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Thaum nws tsiv mus rau Harrah tus, Loveman hloov lub tuam txhab nrog ib tug heev flier zoo li muab siab npuab kev pab cuam uas sau zoo kawg li cov nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hais txog cov neeg coj cwj pwm. Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm no yeej ib txwm-on ntsuas system, lub tuam txhab pib khiav thwmsim. Piv txwv li, lawv yuav khiav ib tug xyaum ua tej yam los soj ntsuam cov nyhuv ntawm ib tug daim coupon no rau ib tug dawb tsev so hmo ntuj rau cov neeg muas zaub nrog ib tug kev twv txiaj qauv. Ntawm no yog yuav ua li cas Loveman piav qhov tseem ceeb ntawm experimentation rau Harrah lub txhua hnub ua lag ua luam kev coj:

    "Nws yog zoo li koj tsis thab poj niam, koj tsis txhob ua tub sab, thiab koj twb tau txais kom muaj ib tug pab pawg neeg tswj. Qhov no yog ib qho ntawm tej yam uas koj yuav poob koj txoj hauj lwm rau ntawm Harrah's-tsis khiav ib pab pawg neeg tswj. " (Manzi 2012, 146)

    Sau ib tug email mus rau ib tug tshiab neeg ua hauj lwm qhia txog yog vim li cas Loveman xav tias nws tseem ceeb heev kom muaj ib tug pab pawg neeg tswj. Koj yuav tsum tau sim kom muaj ib qho piv txwv-yog tiag tiag los yog ua los-los qhia koj taw tes.

19. [ , ] Ib tug tshiab xyaum ua tej yam aims los laij rau tus nyhuv uas tau txais cov lus ntawv nco rau txhaj tshuaj tiv thaiv uptake. 150 tsev kho mob, txhua yam uas 600 tsim nyog tau txais cov neeg mob, yog kam koom nrog. Muaj yog ib tug tsau nqi ntawm 100 dollars rau txhua lub tsev kho mob uas koj xav tau mus ua hauj lwm nrog, thiab nws cov nqi 1 duas rau txhua cov phau ntawv cov lus hais tias koj xav kom xa. Ntxiv mus, tej tsev kho mob uas koj ua hauj lwm nrog yuav ntsuas lub sij hawm (seb ib tug neeg tau txais ib tug txhaj tshuaj tiv thaiv) dawb. Xav hais tias hais tias koj muaj ib pob nyiaj ntawm 1000 nyiaj.

    1. Nyob rau hauv dab tsi tej yam kev mob yuav nws yuav zoo dua rau tsom koj cov kev pab nyob rau hauv ib tug me me muaj pes tsawg tus ntawm cov chaw kho mob thiab nyob rau hauv dab tsi tej yam kev mob yuav nws yuav zoo dua rau kis rau lawv ntau dua lug?
    2. Yuav ua li cas yam yuav txiav txim seb qhov tsawg tshaj plaws nyhuv loj uas koj yuav tsum tau nti ntes nrog koj cov nyiaj txiag?
    3. Sau ib tug memo piav cov lag luam tawm-offs mus rau ib tug tej zaum funder.

20. [ , ] Ib tug loj teeb meem muaj nyob hauv internet cov chav kawm yog attrition; ntau cov tub ntxhais kawm uas pib kawm mus xa me nyuam rov tawm. Xav txog tej yam uas koj ua hauj lwm nyob rau ntawm ib online kawm platform, thiab ib tug designer ntawm lub platform tau tsim ib tug yeeb yam kev kawm bar uas nws xav tias yuav pab tiv thaiv kom txhob cov tub ntxhais kawm los ntawm xa me nyuam rov mus rau ntawm lub chav kawm. Koj xav sim cov nyhuv ntawm cov kev kawm bar rau cov tub ntxhais kawm nyob rau hauv ib tug loj computational Hoob social science no. Tom qab hais tej koom tej teeb meem uas tej zaum yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub sim, koj thiab koj tus lug txhawb cov miv tau txhawj xeeb hais tias cov hoob kawm tej zaum yuav tsis muaj txaus cov menyuam kawm ntawv nti ntes cov teebmeem ntawm cov kev kawm bar. Nyob rau hauv cov lus teb hauv qab no koj yuav xav hais tias ib nrab ntawm cov menyuam kawm ntawv yuav tau txais cov kev kawm bar thiab ib nrab tsis tau. Ntxiv mus, koj yuav xav hais tias yog tsis muaj cuam tshuam. Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, koj yuav tau xav hais tias cov neeg tsuas cuam tshuam los ntawm seb lawv tau txais cov kev kho mob los yog kev tswj; lawv tsis mob los ntawm seb lwm tus neeg tau txais cov kev kho mob los yog kev tswj (rau ib tug ntau formal txhais, saib Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 8). Thov kom khiav ntawm tej yam ntxiv cov kev xav uas koj ua.

    1. Puas xav tau qhov kev kawm bar yuav tsum ua rau kom cov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov tub ntxhais kawm uas tiav cov chav kawm ntawv los ntawm 1 feem pua ​​taw tes, dab tsi yog qhov qauv loj yuav tsum tau mus nti ntes cov nyhuv?
    2. Puas xav tau qhov kev kawm bar yuav tsum ua rau kom cov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov tub ntxhais kawm uas tiav cov chav kawm ntawv los ntawm 10 feem pua ​​ntsiab lus, dab tsi yog qhov qauv loj yuav tsum tau mus nti ntes cov nyhuv?
    3. Tam sim no xav txog tej yam uas koj tau khiav qhov xyaum ua tej thiab cov tub ntxhais uas tau ua tiav tag nrho cov hoob kawm ntaub ntawv muaj npaum li cas ib tug zaum kawg kev kuaj mob. Thaum koj muab cov lus kawg ntsuam xyuas cov qhab nia ntawm cov tub ntxhais kawm uas tau txais cov kev kawm bar rau cov neeg uas tsis, koj nrhiav tau, npaum li cas rau koj surprise, cov menyuam kawm ntawv uas tsis tau txais cov kev kawm bar ua tau qhab nia siab dua. Yog qhov no txhais tau hais tias cov kev kawm bar tshwm sim los cov menyuam kawm ntawv kawm tsawg dua? Yuav ua li cas yuav koj kawm tau los ntawm qhov no tshwm sim cov ntaub ntawv? (Hint: Saib Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 7)

21. [ , ] Nyob rau hauv ib tug zoo ntxim nyiam kawg daim ntawv, Lewis and Rao (2015) vividly piv txwv li ib tug yuav tsum muaj statistical kev txwv ntawm txawm loj heev thwmsim. Cov ntawv-uas Ameslikas muaj lub provocative title "Nyob rau hauv ze-impossibility ntawm Xab lub Rov qab mus qhauj tawm" -shows nyuaj npaum li cas nws yog los ntsuas tus rov qab rau peev ntawm online tawm, txawm nrog cov thwmsim uas tsheej lab ntawm cov neeg muas zaub. Feem ntau, daim ntawv kom meej meej qhia tau hais tias nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kwv yees me me kev kho mob nyhuv noj thaum muaj nrov tau cov ntaub ntawv. Los yog hais diffently, daim ntawv qhia tau hais tias kwv yees li ntawm kev kho mob los yuav muaj loj cog qoob loo Team sib thaum tej yam-rau-tus qauv-txawv (\ (\ frac {\ delta \ bar {y}} {\ sigma} \)) piv me me. Qhov tseem ceeb general zaj lus qhia los ntawm daim ntawv no yog tias tau los ntawm kev nrog me me tej yam-rau-tus qauv-txawv ratio (eg, ROI ntawm ad campaigns) yuav unsatisfying. Koj kev sib tw yuav tsum sau ib tug memo rau ib tug neeg nyob rau hauv lub lag luam department ntawm koj lub tuam txhab evaluting ib tug npaj xyaum ua tej yam los ntsuas cov ROI ntawm ib tug ad phiaj los nqis tes. Koj memo yuav tsum tau txaus siab nrog graphs ntawm cov kev tshwm sim ntawm computer simulations.

    Ntawm no yog ib co tom qab cov ntaub ntawv uas tej zaum koj yuav xav tau. Tag nrho cov zauv qhov tseem ceeb yog ntse tiag tiag thwmsim qhia nyob rau hauv Lewis and Rao (2015) :

    • ROI, ib tug tseem ceeb metric rau hauv internet ad campaigns, yog txhais mus yuav tus nqa nyiaj los ntawm lub phiaj los nqis tes (tag nrho cov nyiaj los ntawm phiaj los nqis tes rho tawm tus nqi ntawm phiaj los nqis tes) muab faib los ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov phiaj los nqis tes. Piv txwv li ib phiaj los nqis tes uas twb tsis muaj ntxim rau cov muag khoom yuav muaj ib tug ROI ntawm -100% thiab ib tug phiaj los nqis tes qhov twg profits generated twb sib npaug zos rau cov nqi yuav muaj ib tug ROI ntawm 0.

    • qhov phem muag khoom ib cov neeg yog $ 7 nrog ib tug txheej txheem sib txawv ntawm $ 75.

    • lub phiaj los nqis tes yuav tsum kom muag khoom ntawm $ 0.35 rau ib cov neeg uas sib raug rau ib qho kev nce nyob rau hauv cov nyiaj ntawm $ 0,175 tauj ib neeg muas zaub. Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, tas nrho cov paj tau paj yog 50%.

    • lub tswv yim npaj luaj li cas ntawm qhov xyaum ua tej yog 200,000 tus neeg, ib nrab nyob rau hauv cov kev kho mob pab pawg neeg thiab ib nrab nyob rau hauv lub pab pawg neeg tswj.

    • tus nqi ntawm cov phiaj los nqis tes yog $ 0,14 ib tus neeg.

    Sau ib tug memo evaluting no xyaum ua tej yam. Koj puas pom zoo kom launching no xyaum ua tej yam raws li npaj? Yog hais tias yog li ntawd, vim li cas? Yog hais tias tsis yog, dab tsi hloov yuav koj pom zoo kom?

    Ib tug zoo memo yuav nyob qhov no cov ntaub ntawv; ib tug zoo dua memo yuav generalize los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv no nyob rau hauv ib txoj kev (xws li, qhia yuav ua li cas qhov kev txiav txim hloov raws li ib tug muaj nuj nqi ntawm tej yam-rau-tus qauv-txawv piv); thiab ib tug zoo memo yuav nthuav ib siab generalized tshwm sim.

22. [ , ] Ua tib yam raws li lub yav dhau los lo lus nug, tab sis es tsis simulation koj yuav tsum tau siv analytic tau.

23. [ , , ] Ua tib yam raws li lub yav dhau los lo lus nug, tab sis siv ob qho tib si simulation thiab analytic tau.

24. [ , , ] Xav txog tej yam uas koj tau sau cov memo piav saum toj no-siv tog twg los simulation, analytic tau, los yog ob qho tib si thiab ib tug neeg los ntawm cov lag luam department xav siv ib tug txawv-nyob rau hauv-txawv Estimator es ib tug txawv nyob rau hauv txhais tau tias Estimator (saib Section 4.6.2) . Sau ib tug tshiab luv luv memo piav qhia txog ib tug 0.4 correlation ntawm kev muag khoom ua ntej qhov xyaum ua tej thiab muag khoom tom qab qhov xyaum ua tej yuav hloov koj xaus.

25. [ , ] Nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim ntsuam xyuas cov hauj lwm zoo ntawm ib tug tshiab lub web-based ua hauj lwm pab, lub tsev kawm ntawv cov hauj lwm cov kev pab cuam chaw ua hauj lwm ua ib tug randomized tswj mus sib cov 10,000 tus menyuam kawm ntawv nkag mus kawm rau lawv lub xyoo kawg ntawm lub tsev kawm ntawv. Ib tug dawb subscription nrog cim cav-nyob rau hauv ntaub ntawv raug xa mus los ntawm ib tug tsuas yog email caw mus rau 5,000 ntawm lub across xaiv cov tub ntxhais kawm, thaum lub lwm yam 5,000 tus menyuam kawm ntawv yog nyob rau hauv cov kev tswj pab pawg neeg thiab tsis muaj ib tug subscription. Kaum ob lub hlis tom qab, ib tug rov qab mus txog daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas (uas tsis muaj uas tsis yog-teb) qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv ob qho tag nrho cov kev kho mob thiab kev tswj pab pawg, 70% ntawm cov menyuam kawm ntawv tau ruaj full-time ua hauj lwm nyob rau hauv lawv xaiv teb (Rooj 4.5). Yog li, nws nkawd hais tias lub web-based kev pab cuam muaj tsis ntxim.

    Txawm li cas los, ib tug ntse ntaub ntawv paub txog ntawm lub tsev kawm ntawv ntsia cov ntaub ntawv ib tug me ntsis zoo dua thiab pom hais tias tsuas 20% ntawm cov menyuam kawm ntawv nyob rau hauv cov kev kho mob pab pawg neeg puas tau in thiaj li tso rau hauv lub account tom qab tau txais cov email. Ntxiv mus, thiab me ntsis kuj ceeb tias, cov neeg uas tau in thiaj li tso rau hauv lub website tsuas 60% tau ruaj full-time ua hauj lwm nyob rau hauv lawv xaiv teb, uas yog qis tshaj tus nqi rau cov neeg uas tsis teev nyob rau hauv thiab qis tshaj tus nqi rau cov neeg nyob rau hauv cov kev tswj kev mob (rooj 4.6).

    1. Muab ib qho kev piav qhia rau dab tsi yuav muaj tshwm sim.
    2. Yuav ua li cas yog ob txoj kev sib txawv mus xam cov nyhuv ntawm cov kev kho mob nyob rau hauv no xyaum ua tej yam?
    3. Muab no tshwm sim, yuav tsum lub tsev kawm ntawv cov hauj lwm kev pab cuam muab cov web-based ua hauj lwm pab rau tag nrho cov tub ntxhais kawm? Cia li mus yuav ntshiab, qhov no yog tsis ib lo lus nug uas muaj ib qho lus teb yooj yim.
    4. Yuav ua li cas yuav tsum tau lawv ua li cas ntxiv?

    Hint: Lo lus nug no mus tshaj cov khoom them nyob rau hauv tshooj no, tab sis chaw nyob tej teeb meem ntau nyob rau hauv sim kawm. Qhov no hom ntawm kev sim tsim yog tej zaum hu ua ib tug txhawb tsim vim hais tias cov neeg tuaj koom yog xav kom mus koom rau hauv cov kev kho mob. Qhov teeb meem no yog ib qho piv txwv ntawm dab tsi yog hu ua ib tug-ib tog tsis raws kev cai (saib Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 5)

26. [ ] Tom qab ntxiv kev xeem, nws hloov tawm hais tias lub sim piav nyob rau hauv lub yav dhau los lo lus nug yog txawm ntau tham. Nws hloov tawm hais tias 10% ntawm cov neeg nyob rau hauv lub pab pawg neeg tswj them rau kev nkag mus rau cov kev pab cuam, thiab lawv twb tuaj nrog ib tug ua hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm 65% (Rooj 4.7).

    1. Sau ib tug email ntsiab lus yog dab tsi koj xav tias yog tshwm sim thiab pom zoo kom ib chav kawm ntawm kev txiav txim.

    Hint: Lo lus nug no mus tshaj cov khoom them nyob rau hauv tshooj no, tab sis chaw nyob tej teeb meem ntau nyob rau hauv sim kawm. Qhov teeb meem no yog ib qho piv txwv ntawm dab tsi yog hu ua ob-mog uas tsis yog raws kev cai (saib Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 6)