2.1 Taw qhia
Nyob rau hauv lub analog muaj hnub nyoog, sau cov ntaub ntawv hais txog tus cwj pwm-uas ua thaum-yog kim, thiab yog li ntawd, kuj tsis tshua muaj. Tam sim no, nyob rau hauv lub digital muaj hnub nyoog, tus yeeb yam ntawm billions ntawm cov neeg uas kaw, muab cia, thiab analyzable. Piv txwv li, txhua txhua lub sij hawm koj nyem rau ntawm ib lub website, ua ib tug hu rau koj lub xov tooj ntawm, los yog them rau ib yam dab tsi nrog koj cov credit card, ib cov ntaub ntawv ntawm koj tus cwj pwm yog tsim thiab khaws tseg los ntawm ib tug ua lag ua luam. Vim hais tias cov ntaub ntawv no yog ib tug los ntawm-cov khoom ntawm tib neeg lub txhua txhua hnub ua, lawv yog feem ntau hu ua cov ib co kua nplaum. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus rau cov ib co kua nplaum nyob rau ntawm cov lag luam, cov nom tswv kuj muaj incredibly nplua nuj cov ntaub ntawv hais txog ob tus neeg thiab cov lag luam, cov ntaub ntawv uas yog feem ntau digitized thiab analyzable. Ua ke no ua lag ua luam thiab tsoom fwv cov ntaub ntawv no feem ntau hu ua loj cov ntaub ntawv.
Tus puas-nce dej nyab loj cov ntaub ntawv txhais tau tias peb tau tsiv los ntawm ib lub ntiaj teb nyob qhov twg coj tus cwj pwm cov ntaub ntawv yog scarce rau lub ntiaj teb nyob qhov twg coj tus cwj pwm cov ntaub ntawv yog xauv npo. Tab sis, vim hais tias cov hom ntaub ntawv no kuj tshiab, ib tug tsis muaj hmoo npaum li cas ntawm kev tshawb fawb uas siv cov lawv zoo li zaum blindly chasing muaj cov ntaub ntawv. Tshooj no, xwb, muaj ib tug principled mus kom ze rau kev totaub txog qhov sib txawv qhov chaw ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thiab yuav ua li cas lawv yuav tsum tau siv. Qhov no richer to taub yuav pab tau koj zoo dua phim koj kev tshawb fawb cov lus nug rau kev tsim nyog qhov chaw ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Los yog, yog hais tias xws uas twb muaj lawm qhov chaw yog tu ncua, convince koj mus sau koj tus kheej cov ntaub ntawv siv lub tswv yim rau yav tom ntej chapters.
Ib tug thawj kauj ruam mus rau kev kawm los ntawm loj cov ntaub ntawv yog los twb paub lawm tias nws yog ib feem ntawm ib tug dav heev qeb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv uas twb tau muab siv rau kev sib raug zoo kev tshawb fawb rau ntau xyoo: observational cov ntaub ntawv. Roughly, observational cov ntaub ntawv yog tej ntaub ntawv uas tau los ntawm tsom kwm ib tug social system tsis intervening nyob rau hauv ib txoj kev. Ib tug crude txoj kev xav txog nws yog tias observational cov ntaub ntawv yog txhua yam uas tsis koom nrog tham nrog cov neeg (xws li, cov ntawv tshawb fawb, cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev Tshooj 3) los yog hloov tib neeg lub kev kawm (eg, thwmsim, lub npe ntawm Tshooj 4). Yog li, nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus ua lag ua luam thiab tsoom fwv cov ntaub ntawv, observational cov ntaub ntawv kuj muaj xws li tej yam xws li cov ntawv nyeem ntawm cov ntawv xov xwm cov khoom thiab cov satellite duab.
Tshooj no muaj peb qhov chaw. Ua ntej, nyob rau hauv Section 2.2, kuv piav loj cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv ntau yam thiab qhia ntxiv rau ib tug yuav tsum muaj qhov sib txawv nruab nrab ntawm nws thiab cov ntaub ntawv uas tau feem ntau tau siv rau kev tshawb fawb nyob rau hauv lub dhau los lawm. Ces, nyob rau hauv Section 2.3, kuv piav kaum ntau cov yam ntxwv ntawm loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw. Nkag siab txog cov yam ntxwv yuav ua kom peb sai sai paub txog lub zog thiab kev qaug zog uas twb muaj lawm qhov chaw thiab yuav pab peb harness lub tshiab qhov chaw uas yuav tsum tau tsim nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej. Thaum kawg, nyob rau hauv Section 2.4, kuv piav peb lub ntsiab kev tshawb fawb cov tswv yim uas koj yuav siv los kawm tau los ntawm observational cov ntaub ntawv: suav tej yam uas, forecasting yam, thiab approximating ib tug xyaum ua tej yam.
