2.4 Kev tshawb fawb tswv yim

Muab cov kaum yam ntxwv ntawm loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw thiab lub xam qhovkev cov kev txwv ntawm txawm txig cai cov ntaub ntawv, cas ntawm kev tshawb fawb cov tswv yim yuav pab tau? Uas yog, yuav ua li cas yuav ua tau peb kawm thaum peb tsis txhob nug cov lus nug thiab tsis khiav thwmsim? Nws yuav zoo li uas cia li saib cov neeg yuav tsis ua rau kev nthuav cov kev tshawb fawb, tab sis hais tias yog tsis yog cov ntaub.

Kuv pom peb lub ntsiab tswv yim rau kev kawm los ntawm observational cov ntaub ntawv: suav tej yam uas, forecasting yam, thiab approximating thwmsim. Kuv mam li piav qhia txog txhua yam ntawm cov le caag-uas yuav tsum tau hu ua "kev tshawb fawb tswv yim" los yog "kev tshawb fawb cov zaub mov txawv" -thiab kuv mam li piv txwv lawv nrog cov piv txwv. Cov tswv yim yog tsis nrog kom los yog exhaustive, tab sis lawv ua kev ntes ib tug ntau ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb nrog observational cov ntaub ntawv.

Yuav kom qhia txog cov neeg pab leg ntaubntawv uas ua raws li, suav tej yam uas yog tseem ceeb tshaj plaws thaum peb yuav empirically adjudicating ntawm txoj hau kev los ntawm ntau theories. Forecasting, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nowcasting, yuav pab tau kom txoj cai makers. Thaum kawg, loj cov ntaub ntawv tsub kom peb muaj peev xwm ua causal kev kwv yees los ntawm observational cov ntaub ntawv.