1.2 Zoo siab txais tos rau cov muaj hnub nyoog

Cov muaj hnub nyoog yog qhov txhia chaw, nws loj hlob, thiab nws hloov dab tsi yog ua tau rau kev soj ntsuam.

Lub hauv paus premise ntawm phau ntawv no yog hais tias cov muaj hnub nyoog tsim tshiab lub caij rau cov kev tshawb fawb. Soj ntsuam ntawm muaj peev xwm tam sim no soj ntsuam tus cwj pwm, nug cov lus nug, khiav thwmsim, thiab koom tes nyob rau hauv txoj kev uas tsuas tsis yooj yim sua nyob rau hauv lub heev tsis ntev los no yav dhau los. Nrog rau cov qheb tshiab kuj tuaj tshiab txaus ntshai; soj ntsuam ntawm muaj peev xwm tam sim no ua mob neeg nyob rau hauv txoj kev uas tsis yooj yim sua nyob rau hauv lub heev tsis ntev los no yav dhau los. Lub qhov chaw ntawm no cib fim thiab txaus ntshai yog txoj kev hloov los ntawm cov analog muaj hnub nyoog mus rau cov muaj hnub nyoog. Qhov no txoj kev hloov tsis tshwm sim tag nrho cov nyob ib zaug zoo li ib lub teeb-mus tig on-thiab, nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, txoj kev hloov yog tseem tsis tau tiav. Tab sis, los ntawm no taw tes peb twb pom txaus kom paub tias ib yam dab tsi loj yog tshwm sim.

Ib txoj kev uas yuav paub tias qhov kev hloov no yog mus nrhiav kev hloov nyob rau hauv koj lub neej txhua hnub. Muaj ntau yam uas nyob rau hauv koj lub neej uas siv yuav tsum tau analog yog tam sim no cov. Tej zaum koj siv tau los siv ib lub koob yees duab nrog zaj duab xis thiab tam sim no koj siv ib cov koob yees duab (uas yog tej zaum ib feem ntawm koj cov xov tooj). Tej zaum koj siv tau los nyeem ib lub cev cov ntawv xov xwm thiab tam sim no koj nyeem ib qho hauv internet ntawv xov xwm. Tej zaum koj siv tau los them rau tej yam uas muaj lub cev nyiaj ntsuab thiab tam sim no koj yuav tau them nrog ib daim credit card. Nyob rau hauv txhua rooj plaub, txoj kev hloov los ntawm analog rau cov txhais tau tias cov lus qhia ntxiv yog tam sim no yog yuav thiab muab digitally.

Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, thaum ntsia nyob hauv aggregate, cov teebmeem ntawm txoj kev hloov yog astonishing. Tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no yog sai ua thiab ntau tshaj ntawm cov ntaub ntawv uas yog cia digitally, uas tswj tsom xam, kis tau tus mob, thiab cov phiajcim (Daim duab 1.1) (Hilbert and López 2011) . Tag nrho cov no cov ntaub ntawv tau tuaj mus rau yuav hu ua "loj cov ntaub ntawv." Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus rau qhov tawg ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, muaj ib tug thaum uas tig mus kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv peb nkag tau mus rau koj laij hwj chim (Daim duab 1.1) (Hilbert and López 2011) . Cov tiam sis-ua cov ntaub ntawv thiab kom xam-qhia tau tias tsis muaj kos npe rau ntawm tseg.

Daim duab 1.1 ntaub ntawv cia muaj peev xwm thiab laij hwj chim yog kom dramatically. Ntxiv mus, cov lus qhia cia yog tam sim no yuav luag heev dua lwm yam digital (Hilbert and López 2011) . Cov kev hloov no tsim zoo kawg lub caij rau cov kev soj ntsuam.

Rau cov hom phiaj ntawm kev sib raug tshawb fawb, kuv xav tias tseem ceeb tshaj plaws feature ntawm cov muaj hnub nyoog yog computers qhov txhia chaw. Pib raws li chav tsev-sized tshuab uas tsuas muaj cov nom tswv thiab loj tuam txhab uas muag, computers tau lossi shrinking nyob rau hauv loj thiab ua nyob rau hauv tej chaw. Txhua xyoo caum txij thaum lub 1980s, peb twb pom ib yam tshiab ntawm xam mam li: tus kheej computers, laptops, ntse xov tooj, thiab tam sim no nyob ruaj nrees processors (ie, computers hauv pab kiag li lawm xws li tsheb, ua si, thiab kom tshuab nrov tuaj) (Waldrop 2016) . Qhia cov ubiquotous computers ua ntau tshaj li xam; lawv kuj paub, khw, thiab kis cov lus qhia.

Rau kev soj ntsuam, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm computers qhov txhia chaw yog ib qho yooj yim mus saib hauv internet, ib qho chaw uas yog tag nrho measured thiab amenable mus experimentation. Piv txwv li, ib tug nyob hauv internet khw yuav yooj yim sau incredibly leej ntaub ntawv hais txog lub khw thiab yuav khoom cov qauv ntawm lab ntawm cov neeg muas zaub. Ntxiv mus, ib tug nyob hauv internet khw yuav yooj yim randomize ib co neeg muas zaub tau txais ib kev kav khw thiab lwm tus neeg yuav tau txais lwm. Qhov no muaj peev xwm randomize rau sab saum toj ntawm mus txog qhovtwg txhais tau tias nyob hauv internet khw muag khoom noj yuav lossi khiav randomized tswj thwmsim. Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, hais tias koj twb puas tau yuav ib yam dab tsi los ntawm ib tug khw hauv internet koj tus cwj pwm tau tracked thiab koj twb yuav luag yeej tau ib tug neeg nyob rau hauv ib tug xyaum ua tej yam, seb koj puas paub nws los yog tsis.

Qhov no nkaus-ntsuas-siab-randomizable ntiaj teb no yog tsis yog tshwm sim hauv internet; nws yog nce tshwm sim qhov txhia chaw. Lub cev khw muag khoom noj twb sau tsis tshua muaj neeg ncauj lus kom ntxaws purchase cov ntaub ntawv, thiab lawv tsim infrastructure los saib xyuas cov neeg muas zaub kav khw cwj pwm thiab sib tov experimentation hauv niaj hnub ua lag ua luam xyaum. Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, thaum koj xav txog cov muaj hnub nyoog koj yuav tsum tsis txhob cia li xav hais tias hauv internet, koj yuav tsum xav hais tias qhov txhia chaw. Cov muaj hnub nyoog kev tshawb fawb yuav koom nrog cov neeg interacting nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov chaw thiab yuav koom nrog cov neeg siv cov pab kiag li lawm nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no.

Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus enabling ntsuas ntawm tus cwj pwm thiab randomization ntawm kev kho mob, cov muaj hnub nyoog lawm kuj enabled txoj kev tshiab rau cov neeg sib txuas lus. Cov tshiab cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev sib txuas lus cia kev soj ntsuam khiav txoj kev tshawb fawb thiab tsim loj kev sib koom tes nrog rau lawv cov lug txhawb cov miv thiab cov pej xeem.

Ib tug skeptic yuav taw tes kom paub tias tsis muaj leej twg ntawm cov tuition yog tiag tiag tshiab. Uas yog, nyob rau hauv lub dhau los lawm, muaj lwm yam loj kho nyob rau hauv cov haiv neeg 'muaj peev xwm sib txuas lus (xws li, cov hlua taws xob (Gleick 2011) ), thiab computers tau tau txais sai ntawm roughly tib tus nqi txij thaum lub 1960 (Waldrop 2016) . Tab sis, yog dab tsi no skeptic yog uas ploj lawm yog tias nyob rau ib tus taw tes ntau tshaj ntawm tib yuav ib yam dab tsi txawv (Halevy, Norvig, and Pereira 2009) . Ntawm no yog ib tug analogy uas kuv nyiam. Yog hais tias koj muaj peev xwm ntes ib cov duab ntawm ib tug nees, ces koj muaj ib daim duab. Thiab, Yog hais tias koj muaj peev xwm ntes 24 dluab ntawm ib tug nees ib ob, ces koj muaj ib tug yeeb yam. Ntawm cov hoob kawm, ib tug yeeb yam yog ib Rev ntawm cov duab, tiam sis tsuas yog ib tug tuag nyuaj skeptic yuav hais tias cov duab thiab tsos yog tib yam.

Soj ntsuam ntawm muaj nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm kev ua ib txoj kev hloov akin mus rau txoj kev hloov los ntawm photography rau cinematography. Qhov no txoj kev hloov tsis tau txhais hais tias txhua yam uas peb tau kawm nyob rau hauv lub yav dhau los yuav tsum tau tsis quav ntsej li. Ib yam li lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm photography qhia tej ntsiab cai ntawm cinematography, tej ntsiab cai ntawm kev tshawb fawb nyob rau hauv lub yav dhau los yuav qhia rau tus social tshawb fawb ntawm cov yav tom ntej. Tab sis, txoj kev hloov kuj txhais tau tias peb yuav tsum tsis txhob ua li cas ua tib yam. Tiamsis, peb yuav tsum muab lub le caag ntawm yav dhau los nrog rau cov tuition ntawm tam sim no thiab yav tom ntej. Piv txwv li, cov kev tshawb fawb ntawm Blumenstock thiab lug txhawb cov miv yog ib tug sib tov ntawm cov tshuaj daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb nrog li cas ib txhia tej zaum yuav hu rau ntaub ntawv kev kawm. Ob leeg ntawm cov khoom xyaw yog tsim nyog: tej nuj nqis cov daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas cov lus teb los yog cov xov tooj ntaub ntawv los ntawm lawv tus kheej twb txaus. Feem ntau, kuv xav hais tias nce kev soj ntsuam yuav tsum tau muab social science uas muaj ntaub ntawv science nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav coj kom zoo dua ntawm lub caij ntawm cov muaj hnub nyoog. Mus ntxiv xwb kev noj cov duab thaum peb kuj tau ua movies yuav yog ib tug yuam kev.