3.1 Taw qhia

Soj ntsuam uas kawm dolphins yuav tsis thov kom lawv cov lus nug. Yog li ntawd, ntses taub ntswg ntev soj ntsuam ntawm yog yuam kom kawm coj tus cwj pwm. Soj ntsuam uas kawm tib neeg, rau lwm cov tes, yuav tsum coj kom zoo dua ntawm lub fact tias peb cov neeg koom yuav tham. Nug cov neeg cov lus nug lawm ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib raug kev tshawb fawb rau ib tug ntev lub sij hawm, thiab cov muaj hnub nyoog ob enables thiab yuav tsum tau tej yam kev hloov nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb. Dua li ntawm qhov kho siab heev hais tias ib co daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas soj ntsuam tam sim no xav, kuv xav hais tias cov muaj hnub nyoog yog yuav mus yuav ib tug Golden muaj hnub nyoog ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb.

Lub keeb kwm ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb yuav tsum roughly muab faib ua peb overlapping eras, sib cais los ntawm ob contested zaus (Groves 2011; Converse 1987) . Txoj cai tam sim no peb muaj nyob rau hauv ib lub sij hawm ntawm kev hloov ntawm lub thib ob thiab thib peb eras, tab sis tus thawj thiab tus thib ob eras-raws li zoo raws li cov kev hloov ntawm lawv-muab kev pom mus rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb.

Thaum lub sij hawm thawj era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb, roughly 1930 - 1960, uas nyob rau hauv scientific piv txwv thiab cov lus nug tsim maj mam ua nyob rau hauv ib tug niaj hnub to taub txog daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb. Tus thawj era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb tau yus muaj los ntawm cheeb tsam ntau yam piv txwv thiab lub ntsej muag-rau-lub ntsej muag sib tham.

Ces, ib tug hauj kev loj hlob-lub thoob plaws diffusion ntawm landline xov tooj nyob rau hauv muaj nyiaj lub teb chaws-nws thiaj li coj mus rau lub thib ob era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb. Qhov thib ob era, roughly los ntawm 1960 - 2000, twb yus muaj los ntawm random tug dialing (RDD) probability piv txwv thiab xov tooj sib tham. Cov kev hloov los ntawm tus thawj era mus rau lub thib ob era tau nyob rau hauv loj nce nyob rau hauv efficiency thiab txo nyob rau hauv tus nqi. Muaj ntau soj ntsuam ntawm suav no ob era raws li lub golden hnub nyoog ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb.

Tam sim no, lwm hauj txoj kev loj hlob-lub digital muaj hnub nyoog-yuav nws thiaj li coj tau peb mus rau ib tug thib peb era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb. Qhov no txoj kev hloov yog tsav los ntawm ob qho tib si laub thiab rub yam. Nyob rau hauv ib feem, kev soj ntsuam no yog yuam hloov vim le caag los ntawm tus thib ob era yog txhawm cia nyob rau hauv lub digital muaj hnub nyoog (Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Piv txwv li, ntau thiab ntau cov tsev tsis muaj landline xov tooj thiab uas tsis yog-teb nqi-cov neeg uas sampled tab sis tsis koom nyob rau hauv cov ntawv tshawb fawb-tau kom (Council 2013) . Tib mus nrog no rhuav tshem ntawm ob-era txuas rau piv txwv thiab nug, yog kom muaj loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw (saib Tshooj 2) uas zoo nkaus li hem los hloov cov ntawv tshawb fawb. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus rau cov laub yam, muaj kuj rub yam: peb era le caag muaj zoo kawg txuj, raws li kuv mam li qhia nyob rau hauv tshooj no. Txawm tias tej yam uas yog tsis lig tswm tsis tau, kuv xav tias yuav hais tias peb lub era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb yuav tsiag ntawv los ntawm uas tsis yog-yuav qhov muaj tseeb piv txwv thiab computer-xeem kev sib tham. Ntxiv mus, txawm hais tias tus ua ntej lawm eras tau yus muaj los ntawm lawv le caag los piv txwv thiab nug, kuv xav tias yuav hais tias peb lub era ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb yuav tsiag ntawv los ntawm lub linkage ntawm cov ntawv tshawb fawb nrog loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw (Rooj 3.1).

Cov kev hloov ntawm lub thib ob thiab thib peb eras ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb tsis tau du tag, thiab muaj tsiv sib cav tswv yim hais txog yuav ua li cas soj ntsuam yuav tsum mus. Nrhiav rov qab rau cov kev hloov ntawm tus thawj thiab thib ob eras, kuv xav hais tias muaj yog ib tug tseem ceeb kev pom rau peb tam sim no: thaum pib tsis yog qhov kawg. Uas yog, chiv ntau thib ob-era kev twb ad-hoc thiab tsis ua hauj lwm zoo heev. Tab sis, los ntawm zog ua hauj lwm, kev soj ntsuam ntawm daws cov teeb meem no, thiab ob-era le caag nws thiaj li tau zoo dua thawj-era le caag. Piv txwv li, soj ntsuam tau ua xov tooj random tug dialing rau ntau xyoo ua ntej Mitofsky thiab Waksberg tsim ib tug random tug dialing zauv txoj kev uas muaj zoo tswv yim thiab theoretical zog (Waksberg 1978; Brick and Tucker 2007) . Yog li, peb yuav tsum tsis txhob yuam kev tam sim no lub xeev ntawm peb-era le caag nrog lawv kawg tau. Lub keeb kwm ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb kom meej hais tias lub teb evolves, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev hloov nyob rau hauv technology thiab zej zog. Muaj yog tsis muaj txoj kev kom tsis txhob hais tias evolution. Tiamsis, peb yuav tsum puag nws, thaum ntxiv mus rau kos lub tswv yim los ua ntej lawm eras. Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, Kuv ntseeg hais tias cov muaj hnub nyoog yuav ua tau lub feem ntau exciting muaj hnub nyoog tsis tau nug cov neeg cov lus nug.

Cov seem ntawm cov tshooj pib los ntawm kev sib cav hais tias loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw yuav tsis hloov cov ntawv tshawb fawb thiab hais tias cov abundance ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nce-tsis txo-tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv tshawb fawb (Section 3.2). Muab hais tias kev siab xav, Kuv mam li qhia lub ntsiab hauv tag nrho daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev ua yuam kev moj khaum (Section 3.3) uas tau tsim thaum lub sij hawm thawj ob eras ntawm daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev tshawb fawb. Qhov no lub moj khaum yuav ua kom peb to taub tshiab le caag los sawv cev-nyob rau hauv particular, uas tsis yog-yuav qhov muaj tseeb kuaj (Section 3.4) -thiab tshiab le caag los ntsuas-nyob rau hauv particular, txoj kev tshiab ntawm cov lus nug rau cov neeg (Section 3.5). Thaum kawg, kuv mam li piav qhia txog ob tshawb fawb templates rau lawv txuas daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas cov ntaub ntawv rau loj cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw (Section 3.6).