4.5.1.2 E hana oukou iho hoʻokolohua

Hana ana i ko oukou mau hoʻokolohua ke kumukuai, aka he mea e hiki ai ia oukou ke hana i ka hoʻokolohua i kou makemake.

A iâ lâkou e uhi ana ia mea ma luna o nei hana kūpono, e hiki no hoi kukulu ko oukou mau hoʻokolohua. I ka papa kuhikuhiE lanakila o keia kokoke loa i kahi mea i ka mana hoʻomalu; ina oe e kūkulu i ka hoʻokolohua, ia oukou ke hana i ka hoʻolilo 'ia a kūlana kanaka a pau ia oukou makemake. Keia mau bespoke papa hana hana kūpono e hana i manawa e hoao theories e hiki ole ai e hoao i loko maoli 'ia o na¯ papa hana. I ka papa kuhikuhiE drawbacks o ka hana ana i ko oukou mau hoʻokolohua, ua hiki ia ia ke lilo pipiʻi, a me ia ka hoʻolilo 'ia e ka poe a pau e hiki ke ho okumu e holo aku i loaa i ka realism o kekahi maoli' ia nenoaiu. Noiʻi hana ana i ko lakou mau hoʻokolohua no hoi e loaa i kou akamai no kāna i komo. I ka wa e hana ana i loko o nei nenoai, noiʻi uaʻano nui e lawe mai ana i ka ho okolohua i ko lakou komo. Aka, i ka wa noiʻi kukulu iho i ko lakou mau hoʻokolohua, lakou i pono e lawe i komo i ia mea. Mea pōmaikaʻi, lawelawe e like me Amazon Mechanical Tureke (MTurk) ke hoomakaukau i noiʻi i kupono ala, e lawe i komo i ko lakou mau hoʻokolohua.

Kekahi kumu e kahaki ii ka na pono o ka bespoke hana kūpono no ka hoao Hōʻuluʻulu Manaʻo theories, oia ka mīkini Keʻena hoʻokolohua ma Gregory Huber, Seta Hill, a Gabriel Lenz (2012) . Ka hoʻokolohua kaupaona i nā He hiki he mea hiki i kaupalena 'ia ka functioning o ka lehulehu hoʻokele. Mua ole-papa hana haʻawina o maoli ke koho paipai i koho pāloka e hiki ke pololei Loiloi i ka hana o ka incumbent politicians. I like ko, koho pālokaʻikeʻia e hana eha iaʻi e mai ekolu biases: 1)ʻeleu ana i kāu mau ma mua o ka huina hana; 2) manipulatable ma rhetoric, Kauaikép, a me ke kūʻai akuʻana; a 3) 'ole ma hanana unrelated i incumbent hana, e like me ka pomaikai ana o kūloko haʻuki hui a me ka malie. Ma keia mua haʻawina, naʻe, he mea hiki ole ke kaʻawale i kekahi o keia mau kumu mai o ka na ukana i ka hana i loko o maoli, Pa koho. Nolaila, Huber, a me nā hoapili hana mai i ka lahui Nohie ke koho 'ia i mea e kaʻawale, a laila experimentally hoʻopaʻa haʻawina, kela mea keia mea o kēia mau mea hiki biases ekolu.

E like me kaʻu e wehewehe i ka mana kau-up lalo ka mea, ua hele e hookani loaʻimi hoʻopunipuni, aka, no ka mea realism ka mea, aole he pahuhopu ma ka Keʻena-heihei 'ho okolohua. Aho,ʻo ka pahuhopu mea e pono kaʻawale i ke kaʻina hana aʻoukou e ho'āʻo ana e hoʻopaʻa haʻawina, a me keia paa isolation no kekahi manawa aole e hiki i ka haʻawina me ka nui realism (Falk and Heckman 2009) . Eia, ma keia ua neo, ka noiʻi hoʻopaʻapaʻa a pau ina koho pāloka hiki ole ka pono loiloi i hanaia iloko o keia nui Nohie okoʻa no ka manawa, alaila, aole lakou i hele aku e hiki ia makou ke hana ia mea i loko o ka oi aku realistic, oi aku luna 'okoʻa no ka manawa.

Huber, a me nā hoapili hoʻohana Amazon Mechanical Tureke (MTurk) e Imi i komo. Once kekahi i komo hoʻolako 'ae, a hele i ka pokole hōʻike, ua haʻiʻia mai iā ia ia i komo i loko o ka 32 a hihiu e loaʻa hoailona i hiki ae hoohuli ia lakou iloko o maoli kala. I ka hoomaka ana o ka hihiu, kela mea keia mea i komo ua haiia ia ia ua ia ka "allocator" ka mea e haawi aku ia like me hoailona kela puni, a me ka kekahi allocators ua oi aku ka lokomaikaʻi ma mua o kekahi. Eia, kela mea keia mea i komo hai no hoi ua mea ia e loaa i manawa e ka mea malama i kona allocator ole ia, e hāʻawi i ka hou kekahi mahope iho o 16 puni o ka holoholona hihiu. Haawi mai ka mea a oukou e ike e pili ana Huber, a me nā hoapili 'noiʻi pahu hopu, ia oukou ke ike i ka allocator ho ke aupuni, a me keia koho ho i koho, aka, aole i komo, uaʻike nōʻo ia i ka nui pahu hopu o ka noiʻi. O ka huinanui, Huber, a me nā hoapili pūʻali koa i mea e pili ana i 4,000 i komo i uku ia no $ 1,25 no ka hana e lawe ana 8 minuke.

Hoole i kekahi o nā haʻina, mai ka noiʻi mua o ka mea koho pāloka uku, ae hoʻopaʻi aku incumbents no nā haumāna a pau, ua maopopo ma kela aoao o ko lakou mana, e like me ka pomaikai ana o kūloko haʻuki eiiaiaeu, a me ka malie. E Loiloi i ina i komo ke koho hoʻoholo hiki ke 'ole ma ka purely Random hanana i loko o ko lākou kauʻana, Huber, a me nā hoapili hui i lottery i ko lakou mana nenoaiu. Ma kekahi o na 8th a ai ole i ka 16th a ( 'o ia hoʻi, pono i mua o ka manawa e puku i ke allocator) i komo ua randomly waiho i loko o ka lottery kahi kekahi lanakila 5000 puan, kekahi lanakila' 0 heluʻai, a me kekahi nalowale 5000 puan. Keia lottery ua manao e mimic maikai paha, he ino paha lono i mea kuokoa o ka hana ana o ka politician. 'Aʻole nō naʻe i komo explicitly haʻiʻia i ka lottery, ua unrelated i ka hana o ko lakou allocator, i ka hope o ka lottery manawa hopena i hōʻikeʻia i komo' hoʻoholo. I komo i pomaikai mai ka lottery ua oi aku ka ao ao e malama i ko lakou allocator, a ua ikaika i keia kanawai, i ka wa a ka lottery hanaia ma a 16-pono i mua o ka hope hooholo ana, mamua o ka wa e hiki i ka puni 8 (Kii 4.14). Keia mau hualoaʻa, a me nā hualoaʻa o kekahi mau mea i loko o ka pepa, alakai aku Huber, a me nā hoapili e manao nei makou hiki ana ma ka Nohie 'okoʻa, koho pāloka i naauao hoʻoholo pilikia ana, he hopena i ka hopena i hōʻike mua aku noiʻi e pili ana i koho hooholo ana (Healy and Malhotra 2013) . No ka ike maopopo ana o Huber, a me nā hoapili hōʻike i MTurk hiki ke hoʻohana 'ia e Imi i komo no ka mea, Keʻena-mika ho okolohua e precisely hoao loa kekahi theories. It hoi hōʻike i ka waiwai o ka hana ana i ko oukou mau papa hana 'ia: he mea paakiki e noonoo i keia mau ia keʻano o ka hanaʻana hiki i kaʻawale pela cleanly i loko o kekahi' okoʻa.

Kii 4,14: Results mai Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) . I komo i pomaikai mai ka lottery ua oi aku ka ao ao e hoopaa i ko lakou allocator, a ua ikaika i keia kanawai, i ka wa a ka lottery hanaia ma a 16-pono i mua o ka hope hooholo ana, mamua o ka wa e hiki i ka puni 8.

A iâ lâkou e kūkuluʻana Keʻena-e like me hoʻokolohua, noiʻi hiki no hoi kukulu ho okolohua e, ua oi aku ka mahinaʻai, e like me. No ka mea, laʻana, Centola (2010) kukulu iho la i ka mīkini kula hoʻokolohua, e noiʻi i ke kanawai o ka lawelawe pukapuka 'ole ma o ka laha o ka hana. Kona noiʻi ninau i kauoha ia ia, e malama pono i ka mea hana hohola ana ma populations mea, he okoa nohona pukapuka hale aka, he ole indistinguishable. Ka mea wale nōʻano a pau e hana i keia mea, me ka bespoke, dute-kukulu hoʻokolohua. Ma keia hihia, Centola kūkulu i ola kaiāulu pūnaewele-Aʻo.

Centola pūʻali koa i mea e pili ana i 1,500 i komo me ka hoʻolaha i ola punaewele. I ka hōʻeaʻana aku i komo i ka online, kaiāulu, ka mea i kapaia o ka Make I Aloha Hawaii Panel-lakou hoʻolako 'ae, a laila ua ia "ola buddies." Ma muli o ke ala Centola ia mau buddies ola kino, ua hiki ke hui pū okoa nohona pukapuka hale maʻokoʻa nā pūʻulu. ua kūkuluʻia kekahi pūʻulu e loaa Random latike (kahi kela kanaka keia kanaka, ua like e kiʻi mai ia e pili) a ua kūkulu na hui e loaa huhui waina a lākou latike (kahi i pili ai ua oi Tuamotu anuanu). A laila, Centola hoʻolauna hou 'ana i loko o kela a me keia mea ulana pukapuka, i ka manawa e? Aaeno i ka hou pūnaewele puni me ka hou ola kino ike. Ina paha e kakau aku no keia hou pūnaewele, a pau o kona ola kino buddies loaa i ka leka uila hai i keia hana. Centola ike i keia hana-hōʻailona-up, no ka mea hou punaewele-hohola hou, a wikiwiki i loko o ka huhui waina a lākou pukapuka ma mua o ka moʻolelo kaulele pukapuka, he mea i hoʻoholo 'ia e ku e ana kekahi na theories.

Nohona, hana ana i ko oukou mau hoʻokolohua haawi mai ia oukou he nui aku i ka mana hoʻomalu; ia mau hiʻohiʻona nō ia oukou no? ieoaeunoai i kaʻoi aʻe 'ia e kaʻawale ka mea a oukou i makemake ai e hoʻopaʻa haʻawina. He mea eha e noonoo i kekahi o keia mau hoao hiki i hanaʻi iloko o kekahi ano? Ueony kaiapuni. Eia, hana ana i ko oukou mau nenoaiu emi ethical pili puni experimenting ma nei nenoai. I ka wa a oukou e hanaʻi i kou mau hoʻokolohua, nae, oe holo i loko o na mea he nui o na pilikia a pau iʻikeʻia ma ka Keʻena ho okolohua: kāna i komo a me na pili e pili ana i realism. A hope loa downside ka mea e hana ana i ko oukou mau hoʻokolohua hiki ke kumu kūʻai a me ka manawa, e hoopau ana, eia nae e like me keia mau hoailona hoike, i ka ho okolohua make i ka kŘpa mea hana kūpono (e like me ke ao ana o ke koho balota ma Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) ) i kŘpa a eiiieaena hana kūpono (e like me ke ao o na latike, a me contagion e Centola (2010) ).