2.4.3.1 Natural ho okolohua

Maoli ho okolohua i ka lanakila o ka Random hanana i loko o ke ao nei. kaulele hanana + mau-ma aeaiiuo nenoaiu = maoli hoʻokolohua

Ke ki i randomized kekahi lāʻau 'ho okolohua ka ho'ā maikai e like ka randomization. Eia naʻe, occasionally kekahi hana iloko o ke ao nei a pauʻano nui waihona poe kanaka randomly a kokoke randomly i okoa kūlana kanaka. Kekahi o clearest examples o ka papa kōnane o ka hoʻohana maoli ho okolohua hiki mai ka noiʻi a Angrist (1990) e ana i ke kanawai o ke koa lawelawe ma loaʻa kālā.

Oiai ke kaua ma Vietnam, kaʻAmelika Hui Pūʻia māhuahua ka nui o kona mau puali koa ma ka hei ana. I mea e hooholo i kanaka e, e kapaʻia i loko o hana, o ka US aupuni paa i ka lottery. Kela birthdate ua poe maluna o ka apana o ka pepa, a me kēia mau palapala a ua waihoia lakou ma ka nui aniani kiaha. E like me ka hoike ana i loko o ke Kii 2,5, ua holo keia mau kika aku o ka pepa mai ka ipu, kekahi i ka manawa e hooholo i ka olelo e kapaia e na kanaka ui e, e malama (ua i malama i ke kikoo'ōpio wahine). Ma muli o nā hualoaʻa, ua kapaia hānau ma September 14 kanaka mua, ua kapaʻia ka lua hānau ma April 24 kanaka, a pela aku. Ultimately, ma keia lottery, ua kapaia hānau i 195ʻokoʻa la na kanaka i ka hana ana hānauʻia ma luna o 171 la na kanaka,ʻaʻole i kapaia.

Kii 2.5: Congressman Alexander Pirnie (R-HI) unuhi aku la ia i ka capsule mua no ka Selective Hana kikoo maluna o Dekemaba 1, 1969. Iosua Angrist (1990) hui ke kikoo lottery me ka loaʻa kālā 'ikepili mai ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina' ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka hopena o ka oihana koa hana ma loaʻa kālā. Keia mea he laʻana o ka hana noiʻi me kekahi maoli hoʻokolohua. Source: Wikimedia maoli

ʻOiai Ka mea, i ole ai e koke maopopo, i hookahi hei ana lottery i ka pilikia similarity i ka randomized kekahi lāʻau 'hoʻokolohua, ma na wahi, i hiki i komo ua randomly ia e loaa i ka lapaau. Ma ka hihia o ke kikoo lottery, ina ua hoihoi i ke aʻo 'ana e pili ana i ka hopena o ke kikoo-eligibility, a me kou lawelawe ma mahope hana market loaʻa kālā kakou, ia kakou ke hoohalike nā haumāna no nā poʻe kānaka nona birthdates a pau ma lalo o ka lottery cutoff (e like me, September 14, April 24, etc.) a me nā haumāna no nā kānaka nona piha makahiki e noho ana ma hope o ka cutoff (e like me, Pepeluali 20, December 2, etc.).

Haawi i keia hana o ka pâʻani Ua pio ka polokalamu randomly ia, ia kakou e hiki alaila, e ana i ke kanawai o keia iapaau ana no kekahi hoʻokūkū e i ana. No ka mea, laʻana, Angrist (1990) ana i ka ike e pili ana i ka mea i randomly wae i loko o ka hei ana me ka loaʻa kālā 'ikepili i ohi ia e ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina' e manao nei makou i na loaʻa kālā a keokeo veterans ua kokoke 15% emi malalo o na loaʻa kālā o ka like non-veterans . Other noiʻi, ua hoʻohana ka like liana e like me ka pono. No ka mea, laʻana, Conley and Heerwig (2011) ana i ka ike e pili ana i ka mea i randomly wae i loko o ka hei ana me ka ohua 'ikepili i ohi ia mai ka 2000 helu, a me 2005 American Community Survey a loaa ia i kona loihi ana mahope iho o ka hei ana, ua uuku loa-kau kanawai o koa hana maʻano o nā haumāna e like me ka hale loiloi (kuleana versus renting) a me ka noho kumupaʻa (likelihood o ua neʻe i mua elima makahiki).

E like me keia hana kahaki ii ka, i kekahi manawa, ka nohona, ka manaʻo politika, ai ole ia, ma kona ano maoli koa ho okumu ia mea a kokoke-ho okolohua e hiki ke leveraged e noiʻi. Pinepine maoli ho okolohua na pono alanui e manaʻo 'ana ma ke kumu-a-kanawai ma ka napoo ana no hoi kahi no ka mea, aole ethical, aole hoi he mea hiki, e holo randomized lāʻau hoʻokolohua. Ka mea, ua nui i kou akamai no ka wehe aʻe ia i maikai like me kā ka 'ole-mana ikepili. Keia noiʻi kou akamai e hiki ke manaʻoi hoʻopōkole 'ia ma kēia helu kaulike;

\ [\ kikokikona, kaulele (ai ole ia, e like me he mea moʻolelo kaulele) hanana} + \ kikokikona, mau-ma aeaiiuo kahawai} = \ kikokikona {maoli hoʻokolohua} \ qquad (2.1) \]

Akā naʻe, i ka Ikepili maoli ho okolohua e lilo loa ai tricky. No ka mea, laʻana, ma ka hihia o ka Vietnam kikoo, aole mea nana i kikoo-kūpono i pau ai ana (he likeʻole ma o exemptions). A, i ka ia manawa, o kekahi poʻe i ole hei-kūpono hāʻawi manawaleʻa no ka oihana. Ka mea, ua like me he mea i loko o ka lapaʻau hookolokolo ana i ka lāʻau 'hou, kekahi mau kānaka i loko o ka iapaau ana hui i lawe i ko lakou laau lapaau, a me kekahi o nā kānaka i loko o ka mana pūʻulu somehow loaa i ka waiʻona. Keia pilikia, kapa elua kapakahi noncompliance, e like me na mea he nui na pilikia i ho'ākāka 'ia i loko o nui au mamuli o kekahi o ka waihoʻikepili ma ka hopena o kēia mokuna.

Ka papa kōnane a lawe ka lanakila o maoli 'ia kaulele paha ma mua o ka mīkini makahiki, aka, o ka prevalence o ka nui ikepili i keia kou akamai nui maʻalahi e hoʻohana. Koke oe i hoʻomaopopo i kekahi mau hana i ia randomly, nui ikepili kumu e hoʻolako i ka hoʻokūkū 'ikepili i ko oukou pono, i mea e hoohalike i ka hualoaʻa no nā kānaka ma loko o ka iapaau ana a me ka hooponopono ana. No ka mea, laʻana, ma kona study o na ona o ka hei ana, a me koa lawelawe, Angrist i hoʻohana 'ana loaʻa kālā mooolelo, mai ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina; me keia hoʻokūkū aeaiiua, i kona study aole makou i hookahe hiki. Ma keia hihia, o ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina, oia ka mau-ma nui ikepili kumu. E like me ka nui a me ka oi akomi 'ohi' ikepili kumu ola, e loaa ia kakou oi aku hoʻokūkū 'ikepili e hiki ana i ka hopena o ka loli hana ma exogenous oko a.

E kahaki i keia kou akamai ma loko o ka mīkini makahiki, e ka noonoo Mas a me Moretti ka (2009) leo hone noiʻi ma ka hopena o na¯ ma productivity. ʻOiai Luna o kaʻili ia ke nana aku okoa Angrist ke kuka nei e pili ana i na ona o ka Vietnam kikoo ma mua, ma nā hale a lakou i elua hahai i ke kumu ma ka eq. 2.1.

Mas, a me Moretti ana i na¯ ololi ai i ka hana a hana. Ma ka kekahi lima, me he mea paakiki e hana ana i nā hoa ke alakai poe hana, e hoomahuahua i ko lakou productivity no o nā hoa a paÿa. Ai ole ia, ma ka kekahi lima, he mea paakiki e hana ana i nā hoa ke alakai i kekahi poe hana, e hookaulua aku a hiki loa aku. Ka clearest ala e noiʻi i nā hoa ona ma productivity i makemake e ka randomized kekahi lāʻau 'hoʻokolohua kahi poe hana i randomly häʻawi mai ai iä hoʻololi ai i ka hana ana i ka okoa productivity pae, a laila, kūpono productivity ua anaia mai no a pau. Noiʻi, naʻe, e kūʻole i ka haʻalele 'ana o ka hana i loko o kekahi maoli hana, a pela Mas, a me Moretti i e hilinai aku maluna o kekahi maoli hoʻokolohuaʻana i loko o ka supermarket.

Pono e like me eq. 2.1, o ko lakou kuka nei, he elua wahi. Mua, lakou i hoʻohana na pauku mai ka supermarket a Kūʻai nenoaiu e loaa i kūlike loa, kanaka, a mau loa, ma ka ana o ka productivity:ʻo ka heluʻana o nā 'ikamu scanned kekona. A, lua, no ka mea, o ke alanui e haʻalele 'ana, ua hanaia ma keia supermarket, ua loaa kokoke kaulele haku mele' ana o na¯. Ma na olelo, a hiki nae i ka haʻalele 'ana o nā cashiers mea, aole manao ma ka lottery, heʻano nui moʻolelo kaulele. I mea, ke hilinai mākou kuleana i loko maoli hoao pinepine ami ma ka plausibility o keia "e like me-he" moʻolelo kaulele kuleana. Lawe ka lanakila o kēia moʻolelo kaulele oko, Mas a me Moretti loaa ai ka hana me ka oi productivity na¯ maoli he productivity. Eia, Mas a me Moretti hoʻohana i ka nui a me ka richness o ko lakou dataset e neʻe ma kēlāʻaoʻao o ka manao o ke kumu-a-keia, e makaikai i elua hou nui a me ka maalea kumuhana: heterogeneity o keia kanawai, (no ka mea, mea ano o na hana, oia ke kanawai nui) a meʻano papa hana ma hope o ka hopena (no ke aha la e hana me ka kiʻekiʻe productivity na¯ alakai i luna productivity). Makou e hoi hou aku i keia mau mea nui helu-heterogeneity o ka lapaau waiwai, a me maomeka-ma ka Mokuna 5 ka wa a makou kamaʻilio ho okolohua i hou au mamuli.

Generalizing mai nā haʻawina ma ke kanawai o ka Vietnam kikoo i loaʻa kālā, a me ke ao ana o ke kanawai o na¯ ma productivity, Papa 2.3 manaʻoi hoʻopōkole 'na haʻawina i loaa i keia kiko'ī hookahi' ole, ka hoʻohana 'ana i kekahi mau-ma aeaiiuo kumu e ana i ka hopena o kekahi hanana . E like me ka Papa 2.3 mea maopopo, maoli ho okolohua ua wahi apau, ina oe wale ike i ka nana aku no lakou.

Ma ka hana, noiʻi ho ohana eluaʻokoʻa papa kōnane no ka loaa maoli hoʻokolohua,ʻo ka mea e hiki ai e hoohua. Kekahi noiʻi hoʻomaka me ka mau, ma aeaiiuo kumu, a nana no Random nā hanana i loko o ke ao nei; kekahi hoʻomaka me Random hanana ma ke ao nei, a nana noʻikepili kumu i paʻa i ko lakou hopena. Eia ke oki, hai i ka ikaika o maoli ho okolohua e hiki ole mai ka sophistication o ke ana helu Ka Ikepili, aka, mai ka malama ana i ka wehe aʻe ia i ka nani e like hanaia ma ka Pomaikai ulia o ka moʻolelo.