2.4.3.2 'ālike

'ālike Ho okumu i maikai like me kā ka pahi aku hihia.

Maikai like me kā ke hele mai kekahi randomized kekahi lāʻau 'ho okolohua a kūlohelohe hoʻokolohua. Aka, he nui na wahi, i hiki i kahi e hiki ole holo i ka maikaʻi a me ka hoʻokolohua maoli i ole hoomakaukau i kekahi maoli hoʻokolohua. Ma keia mau palapala koho, pono ke ala e hana i ka maikaʻi hoʻohālike, ua'ālike. I'ālike, ke kanaka noiʻi nana ma ka politika-mana ikepili e ho okumu hui o na kanaka a pau, ua like wale no mea i loaa i ka lapaau, a me kekahi i ole. Ma ke kaʻina o'ālike, noiʻi ua nae hoi pahi; oia hoi keia, i kāpaeʻia hihia kahi malaila, he ole ahuwale like. Pela, o keia hana e e hou pololei kapa'ālike-a-pahi, aka, aole au e pili me ka hula manawa:'ālike.

He nani laʻana o ka mana o ke'ālike papa kōnane me ka papakaukau ole-mana ikepili kumu e hele mai, mai ka noiʻi ma consumer hana e Liran Einav, a me nā hoapili (2015) . Einav a me nā hoapili ua hoihoi ma ke kudalaʻole e hiki mai maluna o eBay, a ma ka hōʻike no ko lakou hana, aole au e kālele ana ma ka mea like, ao ke ano: o ke kanawai o ke kudala hoʻomaka kuai ma ke kudala nā haumāna, e like me ke kuai ana uku, a me ka probability o ke kuai.

Ka mea naʻaupō ala e pane i ka ninau e pili ana i ke kanawai o ka ho kumukuai i kuai kumukuai e lilo ai wale hoʻomaulia i ka uku hope loa no ke kudala me ka okoa ho kumukūʻai. Keia kokoke loa i kahi e, e uku ina oe wale makemake e kilokilo i ke kuai kumukuai o ka haawiia mau ukana a pau i kau aku maluna o eBay, me ka haawi ho kumukuai. Aka, ina oukou nīnau ka mea, oia ke kanawai o ka hoʻomaka kumukuai ma makeke nā haumāna i keia hoʻokokoke mai, aole e hana, no ka mea, 'aʻole nānā' ana i maikai like me kā; na kudala me ka haahaa ho kala i lilo loa okoa mai kudala i kiekie ae ho kumukūʻai (e like me, hiki ia lakou ke lilo i nāʻano o nā waiwai, a me nāʻano o nā mea kūʻai).

Ina oe e, ua hopohopo nei i ka hana maikai like me kā, oe ke skip i ka naʻaupō kokoke loa i kahi a me ka noonoo holo i ke kula hoʻokolohua kahi au e kuai lilo aku kekahi mau ukana, e olelo aku nei, he kolepa hui, me ka paʻa lākou no ke kudala kiko'î-olelo, free moku, kudala hamama no ka mea, elua pule, etc., aka, me randomly hoonoho hoʻomaka kumukūʻai. Ma ke kapakai a ka kūpono makeke nā haumāna, o keia kahua hoʻokolohua, e kaumaha aku i ka loa ole ana o ke kanawai o ka hoʻomaka kumukuai i kuai kumukuai. Aka, o keia ana e wale no i pili i kekahi mau huina hoonui, a hoonoho iho la o ke kudala kiko'î. Nā hualoaʻa i okoa, no ka mea, laʻana, no ka mea, nāʻano o nā huahana. Me ka ikaika kumumanaʻo, he mea paakiki e extrapolate mai keia hoʻokahi hoʻokolohua ka piha ana i ka laulā o ka hiki ho okolohua e hiki i ka holo. Eia, mahinaʻai ia mea, ua lawa pipiʻi i mea e infeasible e holo lawa o lakou i e uhi i ka pau aiao makahiki o huahana a me kudala ano.

Akä naÿe ia i ka naʻaupō kokoke loa i kahi, a me ka mana kokoke loa i kahi, Einav a me nā hoapili lawe i kolu kokoke loa i kahi:'ālike. I ka papa kuhikuhiE liana o ko lakou akamai oia e ike i na mea e like me kula hoʻokolohua ka mea, ua hiki mai ia ma luna o eBay. No ka mea, laʻana, Kii 2,6 hōʻike kekahi o ka 31 kau i ka papa no ka mea, like ka ia kolepa palau-a Taylormade Burner 09 O Keaukaha-i kūʻaiʻia e like me ka ia seller- "budgetgolfer". Eia naʻe, i kēia mau kau i ka papa i ikiʻokoʻa ano. He umikumamakahi o lakou kaumaha i ka Keaukaha no ka paa kumukuai o $ 124,99, i ka kekahi 20 poe kudala i okoa hope aʻe. No hoi, o na kau i ka papa heʻokoʻa moku ka uku, ma $ 7.99 a $ 9,99. Ma kekahi olelo, he mea e like me he "budgetgolfer" Ua holo ia mea no ka poʻe noiʻi.

ua kuai lilo aku la i na papa o ka Taylormade Burner 09 O Keaukaha ma "budgetgolfer" he hookahi laʻana o ka like lākou o nā helu, kahi i ke kūʻaiʻia i ka kiko'ī ia mau ukana, ma o ka kiko'ī ia kuai akā, i kēlā manawa, me iki okoa ano. Iloko o ka papakaukau pauku o eBay ma laila, ua literally haneri o na tausani o ka like e puhi ia miliona o nā helu i pili i. Pela, e aho mamua o ke kapakai i ka uku hope loa no ka mea, na ke kudala i loko o ka haawi ho kumukuai, Einav a me nā hoapili i like me kā loko like e puhi ia. I mea e hui pu iho hualoaʻa mai na like me kā iloko o keia mau haneri o na tausani o ka like e puhi ia, Einav a me nā hoapili hou ka hoike i ka ho kumukuai a me ka hope kumukuai i olelo o ka olua waiwai o kela mau ukana (e like me, kona awelika kuai kumukuai). No ka mea, laʻana, ina ka Taylormade Burner 09 O Keaukaha mea i maopopo kahi waiwai o ka $ 100 (nānā 'ana i kona kuai ana), a laila, he wahi ho kumukuai o $ 10 e, e hoike e like me 0,1 a me ka hope loa kumukuai o $ 120 e, e hoike e like me 1,2.

Kii 2,6: An hana o ka like lākou. O keia no ka mea kiko'ī ia kolepa laau (ka Taylormade Burner 09 O Keaukaha) ua kūʻaiʻia e ka kiko'ī hookahi kanaka ( "budgetgolfer"), akā, ua hana kekahi o keia mau kuai okoa keia (e like me,ʻokoʻa ho kumukuai). Kii lawe mai Einav et al. (2015) .

Hoole i Einav, a me nā hoapili ua hoihoi i loko o ke kanawai o ka hoʻomaka kumukuai ma ke kudala nā haumāna. Mua, me laina regression lakou aayoaeuiinoe i kiekie ae ho kala emi iho i ka probability o ke kuai ana, a me ka mea kiekie ho kala hoomahuahua i ka hope loa kuai kumukuai, conditional ma ke kuai i hana. Ma o lakou iho, i keia mau koho, a ua 'awelika no maluna o na mea a pau huahana, ae lawe i ka laina pilina ma waena o ho kumukuai a me ka hope hopena, ua ka hoihoi' a pauʻole. Aka, Einav a me nā hoapili hoi hoʻohana i ka papakaukau nui o ko lakou mau 'ike e ke kiÿeleo kekahiʻano o ka oi maalea haʻina. Mua, Einav a me nā hoapili i keia mau koho kaawale no ikamu i ka okoa kala, a me ka hoʻohana 'ana laina regression. Lakou i ike ai oiai ka pilina ma waena o hoʻomaka kumukuai, a me probability o ke kuai, he laina, ka pilina ma waena o ho kumukuai, a kuai kumukuai he pono ole-laina (Kii 2.7). Ma kekahi, no ka mea, e hoʻomaka ana kumukūʻai ma waena o 0,05 a 0,85, ke ho kumukuai i mea uuku hopena i kuai kumukuai, he mea i hoʻoholo 'ia ua paʻa lilo kekahi i loko o ke Ka Ikepili a pau i ea ae i ka laina launa.

Kii 2,7: pilina ma waena o ke kudala hoʻomaka kumukuai, a me probability o ke kuai (koe panel) a kuai kumukuai (pono panel). He mea koʻikoʻi kekahi laina pilina ma waena o hoʻomaka kumukuai, a me probability o ke kuai ana, aka, aia no he nā laina pilina ma waena o hoʻomaka kumukuai, a kuai maoli; no ka mea, e hoʻomaka ana kumukūʻai ma waena o 0,05 a 0,85, ke ho kumukuai i mea uuku hopena i kuai kumukuai. Ma na hihia, na ka pili ma ua basically kuokoa o ka ukana waiwai. Kēia mau pakuhi paʻi laau 4a, a 4b Einav et al. (2015) .

ʻO Ka lua, aole averaging ma luna o nā 'ikamu, Einav a me nā hoapili hoi hoʻohana i ka papakaukau pālākiō o ko lakou mauʻikepili ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka hopena o ka hoʻomaka uku no 23ʻokoʻa waeʻano o na' ikamu (e like me, Ka Hānai Ā Huhu lako, uilaʻoe, a me nā haʻuki memorabilia) (Kii 2.8). Keia mau koho hoike ia no ka oi hana noiʻia hoʻonaʻauao 'ikamu-e like me memorabilia-hoʻomaka kumukuai, he uuku ia ma ka probability o ke kuai ana, a me ka mea nui loa ma ka hope loa kuai kumukuai. Eia, no ka mea, oi commodified ikamu-e like me DVDs, a me nā wikiō-ka hoʻomaka kumukuai i aneane aole hopena ma luna o ka uku hope loa. Ma kekahi olelo, he awelika ka mea hiehie hualoaʻa mai ka 23ʻokoʻa waeʻano o na 'ikamu hūnā iā nui' ike e pili ana i na oko ma waena o kēia mau mau.

Kii 2.8: Results hōʻike koho kela a me keia waeʻano pākahi mai. ka paa kiko, ma o ka olelo no na mea a pau waeʻano punawai pu (Einav et al. 2015, Table 11) . Keia mau koho hoike ia no ka oi hana noiʻia hoʻonaʻauao 'ikamu-e like me memorabilia-ka hoʻomaka' kumukuai, he uuku ia ma ka probability o ke kuai (axis x) a me ka nui loa ma ka hope loa kuai maoli (y-axis).

A ina oe he, aole maopopo hoihoi i loko o ke kudala maluna o eBay, e loaa e mahalo i ke ala e huahelu 2,7, a me ke Kii 2.8 kaumaha aku i ka waiwai naʻauao o eBay mamua o na mea laina regression koho i kuhi laina pili, a hui pu iho la na mea he nui okoa waeʻano o na mau. Keia mau hou maalea koho kahaki i ka mana o ke'ālike ma ka papakaukau ikepili; keia mau koho inā nō lā ua hiki ole me he alahula mau helu o ke kula hoʻokolohua, a ina pela prohibitively pipiʻi.

O ka holo ana, e loaa ia kakou emi ka wiwo ole, ma ka hopena o kekahi'ālike like ma mua o mākou makemake i loko o nā hualoaʻa o ka like hoʻokolohua. I ka wa wale ia i nā hualoaʻa ma kekahi'ālike ao, ma laila nōʻelua nui pili. Mua, loaa auanei ia makou e hoomanao ai ia kakou ke wale hamama ai maikai like me kā maluna o na mea a pau i hoʻohana no ka mea,'ālike. Iloko o ko lakou mau papa kuhikuhiE hualoaʻa, Einav a me nā hoapili i ka uku'ālike i eha ano: kuai ID helu, mau ukana waeʻano, mau ukana poo, a me Lepe Unuhi 'ia. Ina heʻokoʻa ma ka aoao i ole hoʻohana no ka'ālike, ka mea i hiki ke loaʻa mai ana he kaulikeʻole e like me ka mau. No ka mea, laʻana, ina "budgetgolfer" kuʻu kumukūʻai no ka mea, Taylormade Burner 09 O Keaukaha i loko o ka hooilo (ka wa kolepa me na newa, ua emi Popular), a laila, ua hiki ikea ka mea haahaa ho kala alakai lakou ma hope kumukūʻai, i ka wa ma ka mea o keia e lilo ia i artifact o naciiiuo oko koi. I nui, i ka pono hoʻokokoke aku i keia pilikia mea e hoao nuiʻano o ka'ālike. No ka mea, laʻana, Einav a me nā hoapili haʻi hou aku i ko lakou Ka Ikepili kahi like e puhi ia ioiinyony ikamu i kuai iloko o hookahi makahiki, iloko o hookahi malama, a contemporaneously. E hoolilo ana i ka manawa puka aniani tighter emi ka nui o ka like e puhi ia, aka, ho'ēmi i kā pili e pili ana i naciiiuo oko a. Mea pōmaikaʻi, lakou i loaa ka hualoaʻa, ua kŰlń ma keia mau loli i ka'ālike ana hoʻohālike. Ma ka'ālike moʻokalaleo, i keia ano o ka pili ua ana hoikeia ma ka olelo o na observables a me na unobservables, aka, ke ki manaʻo mea maoli i noiʻi ua wale no e pili ana maikai like me kā ma na helehelena i hoʻohana ma ka'ālike.

I ka lua o ka nui, ae hoʻomaopopoʻia ka wa a ka unuhi'ālike hualoaʻa, ua hiki ia lakou wale no pili i like aeaiiua. aole lakou i pili keia i na hihia i hiki ole ke like. No ka mea, laʻana, ma kona kama'āina i ko lakou noiʻi i ka 'ikamu i ua mau kau i ka papa Einav, a me nā hoapili e hoʻomōhala ma' oihana a me ka kalaka nui-oihana kūʻai. Pela, i ka wa a ka unuhi keia mau like me kā mākou e hoomanao ai lakou wale no pili i keia subset o eBay.

'ālike Ka mea, he akamai ikaika no ka loaa maikai like me kā ka nui datasets. I ka nui pilinaʻepekema,'ālike Kahalaopuna lua-e pono i ka ho okolohua, aka, o ka mea i manaoio i e hooponopono hou, iki. 'ālike Ma ka papakaukau ikepili i mua o kekahi poe he uuku o ke kula hoʻokolohua wā: 1) heterogeneity i ka waiwai he nui, a me 2) ka mea, he maikai observables no'ālike. Oaaeeoea 2.4 hoʻolako kekahi hoailona e ae o ka hiki ke hoʻohana i ka nui ikepili kumu i'ālike.

Ma ka hopena, naʻaupō hoʻokokoke mai i aayoaeuiinoe causal 'ole ka politika-mana ike, ua pilikia loa. Eia naʻe, papa kōnane no ka causal koho e moe ana ma ka hoʻomaumau mai ikaika i nawaliwali, a me ka noiʻi e wehe aʻe maikai like me kā maloko ole-mana ikepili. Ka ulu o mau-ma, nui ikepili nenoai maoli ko makou hiki elua na kiʻina hana i ka pono hoʻohana: maoli hoʻokolohua, a me'ālike.