3.4 wai e noi

Probability Eia kekahi laʻana, a non-probability Eia kekahi laʻana he ole ka mea okoa ma ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa; iloko o na hihia, ka mea, na mea a pau e pili ana i na paona.

Mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, he kumu kahua o ke ana manaʻo noiʻi. Noiʻi aneane loa noi aku i ko lakou mau nīnau i ka poʻe a pau i loko o ko lākou pale kaua heluna. Ma keia manao, ana aole hanana. Loa noiʻi, ma kekahiʻaoʻao, a me kekahi, kŰia mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. I kekahi manawa, i keia mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, ua hana explicitly ma ke kanaka noiʻi; kekahi manawa mea hana implicitly. No ka mea, laʻana, he kanaka noiʻi e holo i ke keʻena hoʻokolohua hoʻokolohua ma luna o nā haumāna lae pua ma kona kulanui ua hoʻi lawe i ka hāpana. Pela, mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku ka mea, he pilikia e hiki mai ana i waena o kēia puke. I ka mea, o kekahi o ka mea pono, ae hoʻomaopopoʻia ka mea aʻu i lohe i kikohoʻe makahiki kumu o ka aeaiiuo, oia "ka mea, aole elele." E like me kakou e ike iloko o keia Pauku, ua pili no elua emi kaumaha, a oi aku maalea mamua o na skeptics hoʻomaopopo. Ma ka mea, aole au e hoʻopaʻapaʻa wale i ka pau manaʻo o "representativeness" Aole kōkua maikaʻi no ka mea, manaʻo e pili ana i probability a me nā probability Eia kekahi laʻana. Akā,ʻo ka ki mea e noʻonoʻo e pili ana i ka ikepili i ohi ai i kekahi biases ma ia aeaiiuo ohi hiki ke hoʻopauʻole i ka wa e koho.

Currently, ka Hoʻohaku theoretical kokoke i kekahi loio, he probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. I ka wa i ohi i ka probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku iaoia mea i ike pono hana aeaiiua, ua hiki ia oe ke kau paona ana i ko lakouʻikepili ma muli o ke ala a pau i ohi ia lakou e hana pāʻewaʻole koho e pili ana i ka pale umauma hoʻokahi heluna kanaka noiʻi. Eia naʻe, pono probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku basically loa ka hana iloko o ka maoli ao nei. He nui nō kāu elua papa kuhikuhiE pilikia 1) oko ma waena o ka pale umauma hoʻokahi heluna, a me ka haka ai heluna, a me 2) ole-pane (Eia like na pilikia i hanaʻino akula i ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino). Pela, aole me ka manao o ka probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku e like me ka realistic kumu hoʻohālike o ka mea nae i ka hana i loko o ke ao nei, e aho e manao i ka probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku e like me ka kōkua maikaʻi, Hōʻuluʻulu Manaʻo kükohu, he nui e like me ke ala physicists manaʻo e pili ana i ka frictionless mea poepoe ape iho la ka infinitely loihi ramp.

Ka inoa no kekahi papa e probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, ua ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. Ka papa likeʻole ma waena o probability, a non-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku,ʻo ia me ka probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a pau i loko o ka heluna kanaka i ka ike probability o ka inclusion. Aia hoi, ma ka mea, he nui ike ana'ku o ka non-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, a me keia mau ki ina hana o ka aeaiiuo ohi e lilo increasingly, he pono ole iloko o ka mīkini mau makahiki. Aka, ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku i ka mahaloia e weliweli mawaena lawelaweʻepekema, a me statisticians. I mea, ole probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, ua pili i kekahi o na mea dramatic inā 'aʻole' o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi, e like me ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo fiasco (kūkā mai mamua aku) a me ka pololei ole i ka olelo wanana e pili ana i ka US presidential ke koho o 1948 ( "Dewey make ai Truman") (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) .

Akā naʻe, i ka manawa pono e noonoo ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku no ka mea, elua kumu. Mua, e like me probability Eia kekahi laʻana, ua lilo increasingly paʻakikī i ka hana ma ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa, ka laina ma waena o probability Eia kekahi laʻana, a non-probability Eia kekahi laʻana, ua blurring. I ka wa malaila, ua kiʻekiʻe holo 'awelika o ka non-pane (e like me ka mea e noho ana ma ka makemake ana ano), i ka maoli probability o inclusions no ka mea, respondents, ua ike ole, a pela, probability Eia kekahi laʻana, a non-probability Eia kekahi laʻana aole e like me ka okoa e like me na noiʻi manaoio. I mea, e like me kakou e ike nei, na hoʻokokoke mai basically ku paa ma ka manao iaoia: kia-stratification. ʻO Ka lua, he ua nui Aey? Acaeoey i ka ohi a me ka Ikepili non-probability Eia kekahi laʻana. Keia mau kiʻina hana, he okoa lawa mai nā kiʻina hana i kena pilikia iloko o ka hala a pau aʻu i manao ia i ano e manao ana lakou e like me "ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku 2.0." Makou e loaa he irrational aversion i ole-probability epekema no ka hewa i hiki he lōʻihi ka manawa i hala.

A malaila, i mea e hana i kēia manaʻo hoʻopiʻi hou pōhaku puna, au e nānā i hae probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a me ka kaumaha (Pauku 3.4.1). Ke ki manaʻo no i ka oukou ohi oukouʻikepili e hopena pehea la oukou i koho. I like ko, ina kela aole ia e loaa i ka hookahi probability o inclusion, alaila, e ole i kela kanaka keia kanaka i ka hookahi kaumaha. Ma na olelo e ae, ina e ko oukou mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, aole aupuni, a laila, i koʻoukou manaʻo e, aole e aupuni. Ma hope o nānā 'kaumaha, aole au e hōʻike elua hoʻokokoke mai i ka politika-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku: ka mea e kālele ana ma ka kaumaha e hana me ka pilikia o Mahea ohi' ikepili (Pauku 3.4.2), a me ka mea e UOAAaOON e wahi hou mana hoʻomalu ma luna i ka ikepili ka mea ohi (Pauku 3.4.3). Na manaʻo hoʻopiʻi kū'ē ma loko o ka papa kuhikuhiE kikokikona e wehewehe ma lalo nei me ka'ōlelo, a me nā kiʻi; heluhelu i makemake i oi aku makemakika hana e hoi ike i ka oaoieei-i paiiaʻi.