3.3.1 kekahi loio

E hoohalike ai ka mea e pili ana i ka hana ana i kuhi mai oukou respondents i ko oukou pale heluna.

I mea e maopopo ke 'ano o ka hewa inferring mai respondents a hiki i ka nui heluna i ka wa i hiki hiki mai ana, e ke noonoo i ka palapala, ai' hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo mauʻu kino i hoao e kilokilo i ka hope o ka 1936 US Presidential koho. ʻOiai Ka mea, ua oi aku mamua o 75 makahiki i hala, i keia debacle i keia manawa, ua nui ka haʻawina e aʻo noiʻi i keia la.

Ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo, he kaulana nui-hoopanee Magazine, ae hoʻomaka ana i ka makahiki 1920, hoomaka ae la lakou holo ka mauu maloo mau poo e kilokilo i ka hopena o Presidential ke koho ana. E hana i keia mau wānana lākou e hoʻouna balota i ka puu o na kanaka, a laila, hoʻi tally i na balota a pau i hoi, ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo hoʻokiʻekiʻe hōʻike i na balota lakou i loaa, uaʻaʻole "kaumaha, hoʻoponopono iho, aole hoi hoohalike ana." O keia kaʻina hana pono wānana i ka uwa o na koho ana i ka makahiki 1920, 1924, 1928 a me 1932. i ka 1936, ma ka waenakonu o ka kaumaha Nui, ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo hoouna aku balota i 10 miliona kanaka, nona ka inoa predominately hele mai kelepona directories, a me automobile kakau moʻolelo. Eia ko lakou ho'ākāka 'ia ma ko lakou methodology:

"THE hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo ke ala apuupuu-holo mīkini eʻe me ka māmā e neʻeʻana o nā makahiki he kanakolu 'ka hoao ana e ho'ēmi i guesswork i ka paakiki mea. . . .This Hebedoma 500 mńka scratched aku oi aku i ka hapaha o ka helu kuhi henua he miliona ka la. Kela la, iloko o ka lumi nui kiʻekiʻe ma luna o Hawaii-ribboned Eha Avenue, ma New York, 400 poe hana deftly ho one'āpana hoʻokahi miliona o pai ia mea-lawa ka hoʻomohala kanaha kulanakauhale e hinaʻi, i loko o ka hōʻike 'envelops, ili]. Kela hora, ma ka hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo'S iho Post Office Substation, ekolu chattering postage metering machines sila, a hehi i ka keʻokeʻo oblongs; mākaukau-Holland? aaiuo flipped ia lakou iloko o bulging mailsacks; 'auwaʻa hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo i kona kalaka holo aku ia lakou i ka hoike kila-Loko Ka. . . Next hebedoma, i ka mua pane mai keia mau umi miliona, e hoomaka i ka mail kaha o na hiohiona balota, e lilo na pukohi-kulana kupono, hōʻoiaʻiʻo,ʻelima-manawa kea-hoʻolaha, a he. I ka wa a ka huahelu hope i totted a kulana kupono, ina hala ka hoao ana he criterion, i ka aina e ike aku i loko o ka hapa iki o ka 1 pakeneka ka maoli hanohano koho ana o kanaha miliona, koho pāloka]. "(August 22, 1936)

Ka hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo ke fetishization o ka nui, he koke recognizable i kekahi "nui ikepili" kanaka noiʻi i keia la. O ka 10 miliona balota i mahele, ua hoʻi mai, i ka mea kupaianaha 2.4 miliona balota Ka koʻikoʻi 1,000 manawa nui ma mua o ke kālā no kālai'āina mau poo. Mai keia mau 2.4 miliona respondents ka verdict, ua maopopo, ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo wānana i ka Challenger Alf Landon i hele e hoʻolilo i ka'ōlelo incumbent Franklin Roosevelt. Aka, ma ka mea, o ka kiko'ī ku pono hanaia. Roosevelt i luku Landon ma ka hāneʻe. Pehea e hiki ai ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo e hele hewa me ka nui o ikepili? Ko makou kēiaʻike o ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku i ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo ka hewa maopopo, a kokua mai pakele e like hewa i loko o kēia mua aku.

Manao maopopo e pili ana i mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku pono ia kakou e noonoo ehaʻokoʻa hui o na kanaka (Kii 3.1). Ka mua pūʻulu o na kanaka, oia ke pale heluna; o keia no ka pae i ka noiʻi Ho'ākāka 'e like me ka heluna kanaka o ka uku. Ma ka hihia o ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo ke pale heluna he koho pāloka ma ka 1936 Presidential Koho. Ma hope o ka hoʻoholo 'ana ma ka pale umauma hoʻokahi heluna, he kanaka noiʻi aʻe pono e kūkulu i kekahi papa inoa o nā kānaka a pau e hoohana hiki no ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. Keia papa helu, ua kapaia, he mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kapiliia, a me ka heluna maluna o ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku ponoi, ua kapaia ka haka ai heluna. Ma ka hihia o ka palapala, ai hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo ke kino heluna o ka poe 10 miliona kanaka nona ka inoa hele mai predominately mai ka kelepona directories, a me automobile kakau moʻolelo. Ideally ka pale heluna, a me ke kino heluna e like me ka mea, aka, ma ka hana o keia mea pinepine i ka hihia. Oko ma waena o ka pale umauma hoʻokahi heluna a me ka wahi ponoi heluna ua kapaiaʻaoʻao pale hewa o keia hoopunipuni. ʻaoʻao Pale hewa o keia hoopunipuni aole, e iho kumu pilikia. Aka, ina na kanaka ma ke kino heluna he systematically okoa mai nā kānaka i loko o ke kino heluna kanaka ma laila eʻaoʻao pale bias. ʻaoʻao Pale kikowaena,ʻo ia ka mua o ka nui flaws me ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino. Lakou i makemake ai e aʻo mai e pili ana i koho pāloka-i o ko lakou mau pale umauma hoʻokahi heluna, aka lākou kūkulu i ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kapiliia predominately mai kelepona directories, a me automobile registries, kumu a pau ma luna o-poe wealthier Americans ka poe i oi aku ka ao ao e kākoʻo Alf Landon (hoʻomanaʻo aʻela nō i elua o keia mau loea, ka mea, ua like i keia la, ua kŘpa a hou i ka manawa, a me ka mea o ka US ma ka waenakonu o ka kaumaha Nui).

Kii 3.1: e hoohalike hewa.

Ma hope o wā i ke ponoi heluna, na kekahi mea mua no ka mea, he kanaka noiʻi, e koho i ka hāpana heluna; Eia ka poe kanaka, e ho'āʻo i ka noiʻi e ninaninau. Ina o ka laʻana i okoa ano ma mua o ka ponoi heluna kanaka, a laila, hiki iā kākou ke alakaʻi mai i mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kikowaena. ʻO Ia keʻano o ka hewa o keia hoopunipuni quantified i loko o ka margin o ka hewa o keia hoopunipuni i ana accompanies koho. Ma ka hihia o ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo fiasco, aole nae aohe hāpana. lakou i hoao mai ai e kelepona a pau i loko o ke kino heluna. Hiki nae, aohe mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kuhihewa, uaʻae nō hoʻi lāua hewa o keia hoopunipuni. Keia clarifies i na margins o ka hewa i ka poe i kāu Hoike i koho mai ana, ua hookuu misleadingly uuku; aole lakou i komo i na kumu o ka hewa.

Eia ke oki, a ho'āʻo paha he kanaka noiʻi e ninaninau a pau i loko o ka hāpana heluna. Poe kanaka ka poe i ana nīnauele ua kapaia respondents. Ideally, ka hāpana heluna, a me na respondents e like me ka mea, aka, ma ka hana he ole-pane. Oia hoi keia, poe kanaka i koho ma ka hāpana hoole e komo. Ina o na kanaka e pane, uaʻokoʻa, mai ka poe e pane, alaila, aole e hiki e ole-ai i nā pane bias. Ole-pane bias o ka lua o ka papa kuhikuhiE pilikia i ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino. Wale 24% o na kanaka i loaa i ka balota ia, a ua huli aku la ia poe kanaka i kākoʻo Landon ua oi aku ka ao ao e pane.

Ma kela aoao wale no lakou i mea hoike, e alakaʻi mai i nā manaʻo o kekahi loio, ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino, he pinepine-hou nane, cautioning noiʻi e pili ana i na pilikia o ka haphazard mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. Eia naʻe, ke manao nei au o ka haʻawina i na kanaka he nui kikoo mai kēia moʻolelo no ka hewa hookahi. Ka mea pono e loaʻa mai o ka moʻolelo,ʻo ia ka mea e noiʻi hiki ole i kekahi mea aʻo ka politika, probability Eia kekahi laʻana ( 'o ia hoʻi, kekahi laʻana me ka ikaika probability-Aʻo rula no ke kohoʻana i komo). Aka, e like me kaʻu e hoike hope i loko o kēia mokuna, i kaʻAʻole nō i pono. Akā, ke manao nei au, he maoli elua noho pono a hiki i kēia moʻolelo. noho pono a pau e like me kaʻoiaʻiʻo i keia la e like me ka mea e noho ana ma 1936. First, aole he nui nui o Mahea ka ikepili e ai ka 'olelo maikai. Lua, noiʻi pono e hoike no ka mea, ua ohi ia i ko lakouʻikepili ka wa a lakou e hana ana i koho mai ia mea. Ma kekahi mau olelo, no ka mea, o ka aeaiiuo ohi kaʻina hana i loko o ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino, ua systematically skewed i kekahi respondents, noiʻi pono e hoʻohana i oi aku ka luna' i manaʻo kaʻina i paona kekahi mau respondents oi aku mamua o na mea e ae. Hope iloko o keia Mokuna, au e hoike aku ia oukou i kekahi mea kaumaha hana-kia-stratification-e hiki ai ia oukou ke hana maikai koho me ka ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana.