3.6.2 waiwai ninau aku

'Aʻole nō naʻe ka mea, e hiki e Pa, waiwai ninau mai la ia e hiki, he poe mana;

Aʻokoʻa kokoke i Hana me ka incompleteness o ka mīkini kumumea 'ike ka mea e hoʻowaiwai mea pololei me ka ana aeaiiua, he hana ka mea aʻu e ao aku i lako ninau mai la. Kekahi laʻana o ka waiwai ole ninau aku la oia i ka hoʻopaʻa 'ana o Burke and Kraut (2014) , ka mea aʻu i hōʻike mua i loko o ka mokuna (Pauku 3.2), e pili ana paha interacting ma Facebook maoli he aloha ikaika. Ma ia hihia, Burke, a me Kraut hui pū anamanaʻoʻikepili me Facebook log aeaiiuo.

Ke kau i Burke, a me Kraut i hana ai, aka nae, ke ano o ka mea aole lakou i mea e hana iʻelua nui pilikia i noiʻi hana waiwai e noi ana maka me. Mua, nae e kuhikuhi pu ana i ka ikepili e puhi ia-a kaʻina i kapaia moolelo linkage, ke'ālike o ka mooolelo i hookahi dataset me ka mooolelo kūpono ma ka kekahi dataset-hiki e paʻakikī a me ka hewa o keia hoopunipuni-prone (kakou e ike i laʻana o keia pilikia lalo ). I ka lua o ka papa kuhikuhiE pilikia o ka waiwai ole ninau aku la oia i ka mea e like ai o ka kikohoʻe ko läkou 'e pinepine e paʻakikī no ka noiʻi e Loiloi i. No ka mea, laʻana, i kekahi manawa ke kaʻina hana ma i ka mea i ohi ia mea proprietary, a hiki e susceptible i ka nui o ka hōʻike 'ia ma ka Mokuna 2. Ma na olelo o na pilikia, waiwai ninau mai la ia, e pinepine pū hewa o keia hoopunipuni-prone e kuhikuhi ana o na ana iʻeleʻele,-pahu ikepili kumu o ka ike ole e like ai. I loko nō o ka pili i keia mau pilikia elua mai, he mea hiki ke alakai nui noiʻi me kēia papa kōnane e like me ka ua i hōʻikeʻikeʻia Stephen Ansolabehere, a me Eitan Hersh (2012) i loko o ko lākou noiʻi ma ke koho kumu hoohalike i loko o ka US. He makepono, e hele ma luna o kēia ao i loko o kekahi au mamuli no na mea he nui o na papa kōnane a Ansolabehere, a me Hersh? Ac? Ae e pono keia mau mea i loko o nā palapala noi o hoʻowaiwai i noi mai ai.

Koho turnout i ke kumuhana o ka nui noiʻi i pili aupuni science, a ma loko o ka wā i hala, noiʻi 'naauao o ka mea balota, a no ke aha la i nui ai ma muli o ke Ka Ikepili o ka anamanaʻo aeaiiuo. Wahi ana ma ka US, nō naʻe, he hana 'ana i loko o ka moʻolelo o ke aupuni ina kela a me keia kamaaina i hooholoia, (o papa, o ke aupuni i palapala i kela a me keia kamaaina balota no). No ka mea, he nui na makahiki, keia mau hui ke koho mooolelo, ua loaʻa ma ka pepa ano, hoʻopuehuʻia i loko o nā kūloko aupuni? Anoa a puni ka aina. I keia hana ia mea paakiki, aka, aole hiki ole, no ka mea, piliʻepekema e loaa i ka piha kiʻi o ka electorate, a e hoohalike i ka mea a kanaka e olelo aku i loko o ana e pili ana i koho ai i ko lakou maoli ke koho 'ana (Ansolabehere and Hersh 2012) .

Aka, ano keia mau koho mooolelo i digitized, a me ka nui o kekahi poe, ua systematically ohi a merged mau ke koho mooolelo e paka hulina haku ke koho AEIU e hoʻopaʻa i ke koho hana ana o na mea a pau Americans. Ansolabehere a Hersh hoʻolaukaʻi me kekahi o keia mau poe-Catalist LCC-i mea e hoʻohana i ko lakou haku ke koho AEI, e kōkua kūkulu i ka pono kiʻi o ka electorate. Eia, no ka mea, i hilinaʻi iā kikohoʻe mooolelo ohi a curated e ka poʻe, he kaumaha aku i ka nui o na pono ma luna o mua hooikaika ma ka noiʻi a pau i hanaʻia ma waho o ke kōkua o na poe, a me ka hoʻohana 'ana Analog moʻolelo.

Like nui o ka mīkini kumumea kumu ma ka Mokuna 2, ka Catalist haku waihona, aole i komo nui o ka poe HI, attitudinal, a me na 'ano' ike o Ansolabehere, a me Hersh makemake. Ma waho aʻeo kēia 'ike, Ansolabehere a me Hersh he nui i hoihoi i ka ke kapakai hoike ke koho' ana i hōʻoiaʻia ke koho hana ( 'o ia hoʻi, ka' ike i loko o ka Catalist hōkeoʻikepili). No laila,ʻo ka noiʻi ohi i ka ikepili a lakou i makemake e like me kekahi o ka Free Congressional Koho Balota Study (CCES), he nui nohona anamanaʻo. Aʻe, ka noiʻi i keia aeaiiua i Catalist, a Catalist i ka noiʻi 'ana i kekahi merged aeaiiuo apuapu i komo hōʻoiaʻia ke koho' ana (mai Catalist), ka pakiko, hoike ke koho 'ana (mai CCES) a me na HI a me na kino i ka o respondents (mai CCES ). Ma kekahi olelo, Ansolabehere a me Hersh lako oukou i ke kohoʻikepili me anamanaʻo aeaiiua, a me ka kūpono merged AEI mau hiʻohiʻona nō ia lakou e hana i kekahi mea i aole waihona hoʻohana pākahi.

Ma ka waiwai o ka Catalist kumu aeaiiuo AEI me ka anamanaʻo aeaiiuo, Ansolabehere a me Hersh hiki i nui hopena a ekolu. Mua, ma luna o-ka hōʻike 'ana o ke koho balota, ua rampant: kokoke hapalua o ka non-poe koho hōʻike ke koho. Ai ole ia, kekahi aoao o ka nānāʻana ka mea, ina e olelo ke koho ana, he mea wale no he 80% wale ia lakou nae i hooholoia. Lua, ma-hōʻike 'ana no ka mea, aole moʻolelo kaulele; maluna iho o-ka hōʻike 'ana, ua oi aku ka pono ole iwaena o kiʻekiʻe-makahiki, ua pono, hoʻonaʻauao, partisans ka poe a pau i komo iloko o ka noho ana. Ma kekahi olelo, o na kanaka, ka poe a pau loa e koho ua hoi loa i ka moe e pili ana i ke koho. Kolu, a me ka hapanui o loi, no ka mea, o ka mea systematic ano o luna o-ka hōʻike 'ana, ka mea maoli oko ma waena o koho pāloka, a non-koho pāloka, ua uuku mamua o lakou i ikeia pono mai ana. No ka mea, laʻana, ka poe me ke kēkelē degere, ua puni 22 pakeneka i koe o ao ao e hoike mai ke koho, aka, he poe wale 10 pakeneka i koe e kiʻi mai ia maoli balota. Eia, na mau ke aʻo kahua theories o ke koho balota, ua nui maikai ma ka luaÿi ka mea e hōʻike koho ma mua o ka mea maoli koho, he empirical i hoʻoholo 'ia e kahea aku nei oia i hou theories e hoomaopopo, ae kilokilo ke koho.

Aka, i ka nui o e kakou paulele mau hualoaʻa? E hoomanao i keia mau hualoaʻa hilinaʻi ma ka hewa o keia hoopunipuni-prone e kuhikuhi ana iʻeleʻele,-pahuʻikepili me ka ike ole ia dala o ka hewa. More ua hōʻike hewa, na hualoaʻa ami i elua kiʻanuʻu: 1) ka hiki o Catalist e hui pu iho la na mea he nui disparate ikepili kumu e paka i kekahi pala- pala haku datafile, a me 2) ka hiki o Catalist e Loulou i ka anamanaʻo aeaiiua i kona haku datafile. Kela o keia mauʻanuʻu Ua paʻakikī a me na hewa ma kekahiʻanuʻu ke alakai noiʻi i ka hewa hopena. Eia naʻe,ʻo kaʻikepili aaioee a me ka'ālike ua noho pilikia i ka hoʻomau ola ana o Catalist e like me ka poʻe i ka mea hiki ke kālele 'waiwai i loko o ka hoʻoponopono i kēia mau pilikia, pinepine i ka unahiʻole, i ka mea,ʻaʻohe kanaka i kālaiʻike kanaka noiʻi, a hui o na noiʻi hiki Aʻohe. Ma ka hou heluhelu i ka hopena o ka mokuna, I kakau i keia mau pilikia i oi aku mamuli, a me ko Ansolabehere, a me Hersh kūkulu paulele i loko o ko lākou mau hualoaʻa. Oiai keia mau lāliʻi i ho'ākāka 'ia i keia ao, aʻe e like me keia, e ala mai no na noiʻi aikane i ka Loulouʻeleʻele,-pahu mīkini kumumea ikepili kumu.

He aha ka mea nui nā haʻawina noiʻi ke kikoo mai i keia ao? Mua, he mea weliweli waiwai mai ka waiwai ole kikohoʻe ko läkou 'me ka anamanaʻo aeaiiuo. Lua, a hiki Ināʻo kēia mau aggregated, kalepa ikepili kumu e, aole e manaoia "lepo oiaio", i kekahi hihia lakou e hiki ke lilo pono keia mau mea. Ma ka mea, he mea pono e hoohalike ai i keia mau 'ike kumu, aole i loa Powa Maka (mai a lakou, e mau haule pokole). E aho, e aho e hoohalike ia lakou i kekahi i loaʻa: ikepili kumu, ka mea invariably i like me ka pono hewa.