3.6.1 listen e noi ana

E kuhikuhi ana i kou ana i kikohoʻe ko läkou 'hiki e like me ka noi a pau i kou ninau i na wa a pau.

E noi ana nui ke hele mai la ia i elua papa kuhikuhiE waeʻano: hāpana ana, a me censuses. Laʻana ana, kahi 'oe e nānā i ka uuku o na kanaka, e hiki e'ōlewa,' eleu, a me kŘpa a nike. Eia naʻe, Laʻana ana, no ka mea, ua nānā 'ana i ka laʻana, ua pinepine kaupalena iloko o ko lakou hooholo; me ka Laʻana anamanaʻo, he mea pinepine paakiki e koho e pili ana i ho'ākāka 'Geographic wahi, a no kekahi HI hui. Censuses, ma ka kekahi, hoao mai ai e ninaninau a pau i loko o ka heluna kanaka. Lakou i loaa nui olelo hooholo, aka, ua nui pipiʻi, ololi ma ka pulakaumaka (lakou e komo wale kekahi poe he uuku o na ninau), a aole 'eleu (lakou i hiki mai ma luna o ka paa haʻalele' ana, e like me kela 10 makahiki) (Kish 1979) . Ano, ke manao wale ina noiʻi ke hui pu iho i ka maikaʻi ano o ka hāpana ana, a me censuses; manao wale ina noiʻi hiki noi kela e ninau aku i kela kanaka keia kanaka i kela la.

ʻae Nō hoʻi, i kēia mau, ubiquitous, mau, ma anamanaʻo heʻano o ka lawelawe nauka Fantasy. Aka, eia kahi mea akaka ia kakou ke hoomaka e He kokekau wale i keia ma ka hoʻohuiʻia ana ninau mai kekahi poe he uuku o na kanaka me ka kikohoʻe ko läkou 'mai na kanaka he nui. I kapa i kēia 'ano o ka hoʻohui pū' ia listen e noi ana. Ina hana pono, ka mea hiki ke kokua mai ia makou hoakaka olelo a ua oi aku kūloko (no ka mea, uuku Geographic wahi), oi granular (no ka mea, i ho'ākāka HI hui), a oi 'eleu.

Kekahi laʻana o ka listen ninau mai la ia mai ka hana mai o Iosua Blumenstock, ka poe i makemake e ohi i ka ikepili ka mea e kokua mai alakaʻi 'ana i ka ilihune'āina. More ua hōʻike hewa, Blumenstock makemake e hana i kekahi ano hana e ana ai ka waiwai a me ka maikaʻiʻana i huiʻia me ka completeness o ka huina a me ke kohoʻia a me ka alapine (frequency) o ke anamanaʻo (Blumenstock 2014; Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . In mea, Fashion Blumenstock ke hana iki hōʻike mua ma ka Mokuna 1.

E hoʻoili, Blumenstock hoʻolaukaʻi me ka nui Kelepona Paʻi pūnaewele ma Rwanda. Ka poʻe i hōʻike 'ia anonymized hana mooolelo mai ma kahi o 1.5 miliona nā mea kūʻai mai e uhi ana i hana mai 2005 a 2009. i na pauku māmala'ōlelo i loko o ka' ike e pili ana i kela a me keia kahea, a me kikokikona olelo e like me ka hoʻomaka 'ana o ka manawa, Duration, a kokekau wale Geographic wahi o ka Caller a me ka pa alima. Mua o mākou hoʻomaka kamailio ana no ke ana helu helu, e pono ke kuai kuhikuhi aku i keiaʻanuʻu mua e lilo kekahi o ka hardest. E like me ia i ho'ākāka 'ia ma ka Mokuna 2, loa mīkini kumumeaʻikepili ua inaccessible i ka noiʻi. A, he nui poʻe he justifiably hesitant e kaʻanalike i ko lakouʻikepili, no ka mea, ua paulele i ka hoʻomana; i ka lakou mau nā mea kūʻai mai paha, aole i nui ai ko lakou mau mooolelo, e, e kaana-ma ka hoʻouka-me ka noiʻi. Ma keia hihia, ka noiʻi i manaoʻanuʻu e anonymize i nā ikepili a ua overseen ko lakou hana, ma ke kolu-aoao ( 'o ia hoʻi, i ko lakou IRB). Aka, mamua o ua mau hoʻoikaikaʻana, i kēia mau 'ike a pau paha malie' ia, a me lakou paha iloko olaila ikepili koʻikoʻi ' (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . I e hoi hou aku ai keia mau ethical nīnau ma ka Mokuna 6.

Hoole i Blumenstock i hoihoi i ka ana ka waiwai a me ka maikaʻiʻana. Aka, pono kēia mau moʻolelo a pau i loko o ke kahea moʻolelo. Ma kekahi olelo, i keia mau kapa mooolelo, he kāpili no keia noiʻi, he pono hiʻona o ka kikohoʻe ko läkou 'i i kūkākūkā i ka au mamuli o ka Mokuna 2. Aka, he mea paha ia o ke kahea mooolelo paha i kekahi' ike e pili ana i ka waiwai, a maikaʻiʻana. No laila, hoʻokahiʻaoʻao o ka noi ana Blumenstock ka nīnau hiki e: la e hiki ai ke kilokilo i kekahi, e pane i kekahi anamanaʻo ma muli o ko lākou mau kikohoʻe kumumea ikepili? Ina pela, alaila, e noi i kekahi mau poe kanaka ia kakou ke koho iho i na pane o pau e ae.

E Loiloi i keia empirically, Blumenstock a me ka noiʻi kōkua mai Kigali Institute o Science, a me Technology kapaia he hāpana o hookahi tausani Kelepona Paʻi nā mea kūʻai mai. I ka noiʻi wehewehe i nā pahuhopu o ka papahana i ka poe i komo, ninau aku la i ko lakou 'ae' ana e Loulou i ka anamanaʻo ai i nā pane i ka leo kahea mooolelo, a laila, ninau aku la ia lakou i ka moʻo o na ninau e ana i ko lakou waiwai a me ka maikaʻiʻana, e like me "anei oukou mau i ka Radio? "a" anei oukou i makemake i ka paikikala? "(e nānā i ke Kii 3,11 no ka hapa papa). A pau i komo i loko o ke anamanaʻo ua compensated financially.

A malaila, Blumenstock hoʻohana he elua-ʻanuʻu hana, he pono ole ma ka aeaiiuo 'epekema: hiʻona' enekinia, hahai ma ke hoʻoponopono i ke aʻo. Mua, ma o ka hiʻona 'enekinia, ka anu u, no ka mea, kela mea keia mea i ua nīnauele, Blumenstock hoohuliiaʻi i ka leo kahea mooolelo iloko o ka lākou o nā' ano e pili ana i kela a me keia kanaka; ikepiliʻepekema ke kapa i keia mau ano "helehelena," a me ka nohonaʻepekema e kapa aku "aiaiiuo." No ka mea, laʻana, no ka mea, kela kanaka, Blumenstock pōpilikia huina helu o na la, me ka haʻawina, ka helu ana o okoa poe kanaka i ka mea i noho ma ka hui 'ana me, ka huina o ke dala lilo ma airtime, a pela aku. Loi, maikaʻi kēia mau mea kanu 'enekinia, pono ike i ka noiʻi' okoʻa. No ka mea, laʻana, ina he mea nui ke maopopo ma waena wahi lulu, a kūwaho hoʻi kāhea aku a ke (makou ke manaʻo poe kanaka ka poe i hea 'Âlapa Hawaiʻi e noho wealthier), alaila, i keia pono e hana ma ka hiʻona ka hana' enekinia 'anuʻu. A noiʻi me iki naʻauao o Rwanda ke e komo pū kēia mau mea kanu, a laila, i ka predictive hana o ka kükohu, e ae aku.

Aʻe, i loko o ka hoʻoponopono i aʻo 'anuʻu, Blumenstock kūkulu i ana helu kükohu e kilokilo i ka anamanaʻo ai i nā pane no kela a me keia kanaka ma muli o ko lākou mau helehelena. Ma keia hihia, Blumenstock hoʻohana logistic regression me ka 10-pa keʻa-validation, aka, ia hiki, ua hoʻohana i ka likeʻole ma o kekahi ana helu a mīkini hoʻonaʻauao hoʻokokoke mai.

A pehea pono i ia hana? O Blumenstock hiki ke kilokilo pane e anamanaʻo ninau e like me "anei oe makemake i ka Radio?" A "anei oukou i makemake i ka paikikala?" Me ka hoʻohana helehelena loko mai o kahea mooolelo? ʻano. I ka pololei o na wānana ua kiekie no kekahi mau moʻolelo (Kii 3.11). Aka, he mea mau nui e hoohalike i ka luna 'wānana ano ku ei kekahi mea inoa no kekahi papa. Ma keia hihia, he mea kekahi papa hana ka mea e kilokilo na mea a pau, e haawi aku i ka loa, he pono ole ia. No ka mea, laʻana, 97,3% hai aku ke kuleana o ka Radio i, ina Blumenstock i pukana na mea a pau e hoike aku ke kuleana i ka Radio ia e ua i ka pololei o 97,3%, i ka mea surprisingly like me ka hana ana o kona oi aku luna 'hana (97.6% pololei). Ma na olelo, a pau ka fancy ikepili a me ka hoohalike māhuahua ka pololei o ka olelo wanana a mai 97,3% e 97,6%. Eia naʻe, no ka mea, na nīnau, e like me "anei oe makemake i ka paikikala?", Ka wānana hou mai 54,4% e 67,6%. More nui, ke Kii 3,12 E hoike mai no kekahi mau moʻolelo Blumenstock i hoʻoikaika nui kēlāʻaoʻao wale ana i ka noʻonoʻo baseline wānana, aka, i no ka mea, na kāna moʻolelo ka mea, ua hana hou kekahi.

Kii 3,11: Predictive pololei no ka mea ana helu kükohu hoʻomaʻamaʻa i kapa aku ai he mooolelo. Nā hualoaʻa mai ka Papa 2 o Blumenstock (2014) .

Kii 3,12: Hoʻohālikelike o predictive pololei no ana helu kükohu hoʻomaʻamaʻa i kapa aku ai he mooolelo i na mea baseline olelo wanana a. Puan ua iki jittered e pale ano; ike Papa 2 o Blumenstock (2014) no ka mea, e auhau Hawaiʻi.

Ma keia wahi oe ke e manaʻo ana keia mau hualoaʻa he iki loaa ole ia, aka, he hookahi makahiki ma hope mai, Blumenstock a me elua nā hoapili-Gabriel Cadamuro a me Robert On-paʻi ka pepa i loko o Nauka me kūpono kou maikai hualoaʻa (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Aia he elua papa kuhikuhiE oaoieei-kumu no ka hana hou: 1) lākou i hoʻohana oi Ka Uluwehi O Ke ki ina hana ( 'o ia hoʻi, he hou e hoʻokokoke e hiʻona' enekinia, a me ka oi aku Ka Uluwehi O Ke mīkini aʻo ÷) a 2) ma mua o ho'āʻo e infer pane i kanaka anamanaʻo ninau (e like me, "anei oe ponoi i ka Radio?"), hoao iho la e infer i ka lua waiwai Index.

Blumenstock a me nā hoapili i hōʻike ai i ka hana ana o ko lakou hoʻokokoke i elua aoao. Mua, ike aku la lakou i ka poe kanaka iloko o ko lakou hāpana, ia lakou ke hana i ka oihana nani maikai o ka luaÿi i ko lakou waiwai, mai kapa aku ai he mooolelo (Kii 3.14). Lua, a mau loa aku importantly, Blumenstock a me nā hoapili hoike mai i ko lakou hana ke paka kiʻekiʻe-kbps koho o ka Geographic hoi o ka makana o ka waiwai ma Rwanda. More ua hōʻike hewa, lakou hoʻohana i ko lakou mīkini aʻo ÷, ka mea i hoʻomaʻamaʻa ma luna o ko lākou mau laʻana o ka puni 1,000 poe kanaka, e wńnana i ka waiwai o na mea a pau 1.5 miliona kanaka a iloko o ka mooolelo kahea. Eia, a me ka geospatial ikepili i loko iho iloko o ke kapa ikepili (hoole i ka hea 'ikepili nā ka wahi o ka kokoke aeea hale kiaʻi no kela kapa aku), ua hiki ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka kokekau wale kahi o ka noho ana o kela a me keia kanaka i ka noiʻi. Kau aku la i keia mau koho a pau, ka noiʻi hua mai la i ka olelo o ka Geographic hoi o ka makana o ke subscriber waiwai i loa ke olonā i spatial granularity. No ka mea, laʻana, i hiki iā lākou manaʻo i ka awelike waiwai iloko o kela a me keia o Rwanda ka 2148 aeee (i ka huna uuku hoʻomalu ka mokuna ma ka aina). Mau pukana waiwai Hawaiʻi no ka ua granular lakou ua paʻakikī e huli. No laila, i ka noiʻi aggregated ko lakou mau hualoaʻa e paka koho o ka awelika waiwai o Rwanda ka 30 apana. Keia mau apana-ilikai koho, ua ikaika loa aku i ka koho mai ke gula hae kahiko ana, i ka Rwandan HI, a me Health Survey (Kii 3.14). ʻOiai Ka poe koho mai na kumu elua, ua like, o na koho mai Blumenstock, a me nā hoapili he aneane 50 manawa cheaper a me 10 manawa wikiwiki (i ka wa o na lilo ma ana ma ka olelo o iaaanu koina). Keia dramatic emi ma ka waiwai e lilo aku 'o ia hoʻi ia ma mua o ka holo kela mau makahiki, e like me ka mea hapai hae, no ka mea, HI, a me Health ana-ka hybrid o ka liilii, anamanaʻo hui me ka nui mīkini kumumea aeaiiuo hiki ke holo kela malama.

Kii 3.13: Schematic o Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Kahea aku ikepili mai ka kelepona anaina, ua hoohuliia mai i ka'ōpū mai, me kekahi lalani, no kela a me keia kanaka, a me kekahi kia, no kēlā me kēia hiʻona ( 'o ia hoʻi, iaaanu). Aʻe, ka noiʻi kūkulu i ke hoʻoponopono i aʻo ÷ e kilokilo i ka anamanaʻo ai i nā pane mai ke kanaka ma ka hiʻona'ōpū mai. A laila,ʻo ka ke hoʻoponopono i aʻo kŘkohu, ua hoʻohana 'ia e manaʻo hewa mai i ka anamanaʻo ai i nā pane no a pau. Ma Mānoa, ka noiʻi hoʻohanaʻia i nā pane a ma kahi o hookahi tausani kanaka e manaʻo hewa mai i ka waiwai o ma kahi o hookahi miliona kanaka. No hoi, ka noiʻi aayoaeuiinoe ka kokekau wale kahi o ka noho no a pau 1.5 miliona kanaka a pau ma nā wahi 'ē aʻe o ko lākou kāhea. I ka wa a keia mau koho elua, ua hui-ka aayoaeuiinoe waiwai, a me ka aayoaeuiinoe wahi e noho ai, i ka hopena, ua like no koho mai ke HI, a me Health Survey, he gula-hae kahiko anamanaʻo (Kii 3.14).

Kii 3,14: Results mai Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Ma ke kanaka-ilikai, ua hiki ke hana i kupono 'oihana ma ka luaÿi kekahi ka waiwai, mai ko lākou kāhea mooolelo o na noiʻi. Ka poe koho o ka Apana-ilikai waiwai-i ma muli o kanaka-nui koho o ka waiwai a me ka wahi o ka noho-na hualoaʻa ua like no hualoaʻa mai ke HI, a me Health Survey, he gula-hae kuʻuna anamanaʻo.

Ma ka hopena, Blumenstock ka listen noi hoʻokokoke hui anamanaʻoʻikepili me ka mīkini kumumea ikepili e paka koho like me ke gula-maʻamau anamanaʻo koho. clarifies no hoi i keia mau laʻana kekahi o ka oihana-mua aʻe nei ma waena o listen ninau mai la ia, a me nā loina anamanaʻo epekema. Mua, ka listen noi koho ua oi aku ka 'eleu, kūpono kou cheaper, a oi aku granular. Aka, ma ka kekahi lima, i keia manawa, aole mea, aole he ikaika theoretical iki iloko o iaʻano listen ninau mai la. I mea, o keia kekahi hana, aole ia e hōʻike i ka wa ia e hana ai i ka wa ia e ole. Eia, ka listen ninau aku la kokoke loa i kahi mea, aole i loaa aoao maikai e quantify maopopo ma kona koho. Eia naʻe, listen ninau mai la ia he hohonu pili 'o Randy i ekolu wahi nui i ka' ikepili helu-ho-Aʻo kia-stratification (Little 1993) , imputation (Rubin 2004) , a me nā meaʻuʻuku, wahi manaʻo (Rao and Molina 2015) -and pela no au e makemake nei e holomua e kokololio.

Listen ninau mai la ia penei, he kumu beauty e hiki ke kā i ko oukou pakahi kulana. Elua nā mea hoʻohui, a elua anuu. Na nā mea hoʻohui elua, he 1) He mīkini kumumea dataset ka mea, he akea aka, lahilahi (ʻo ia hoʻi, he nui na kanaka, aka, i ka 'ike a pau e pono e pili ana i kela a me keia kanaka) a 2) he anamanaʻo i mea ololi aka, manoanoa, (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka mea i wale no he uuku poe kanaka, aka, he ua i ka 'ike a pau e pono ai i ka poe kanaka). A laila, ma laila he elua anuu. Mua, no ka mea, o na kanaka, ma na ikepili kumu, e hana i ka mīkini aʻo ÷ mea hoʻohana mīkini kumumea ikepili e kilokilo anamanaʻo pane. Aʻe, e hoʻohana i ka mīkini aʻo ÷ e manaʻo hewa mai i ka anamanaʻo pane a pau i loko o ka mīkini kumumea ikepili. Pela, ina he mea kekahi nīnau a pau a oukou e makemake ai e noi aku i ka puu o na kanaka, nana i mīkini kumumeaʻikepili mai kēlā poʻe kānaka e hiki ke hoʻohana 'ia e kilokilo i ko lakou pane.

Ke kapakai Blumenstock ka mua a me ka lua o ka hoao i ka pilikia no hoi kahaki ii ka nui i ha awina e pili ana i ka hoʻololi mai ka lua o ka au hou i ekolu au hoʻokokoke mai e ana noiʻi, ke kumu, aole i ka hopena. Ka mea, he nui manawa, ka mua kokoke loa i kahi e, aole e ka maikai, aka, ina noiʻi mau hana, na mea e loaa maikaʻi. More nui, i ka wa a ka loiloi hou hoʻokokoke mai i ka lawelawe noiʻi ma loko o ka mīkini elemakule, he mea pono e hanaʻoe iʻelua okoa loiloi 'ana i: 1) Pehea pono hana i keia hana ano a 2) pehea pono e hana aku ia oukou manao i keia hana ma kēia mua aku, e like me ka ikepili panorama loli ai e like me noiʻi i hoʻolaʻaʻia lā hou noonoo ana i ka pilikia. Eia nae, ua hoomakaukauia ka noiʻi, e hana i ke ano mua o ka loiloi '(i ka maikaʻi o kēia mau'āpana o ka noiʻi), ka lua, he pinepine aku nui.