3.1 Introduction

Noiʻi e hoʻopaʻa haʻawina Dolphins hiki ole ia ninau ana hoi ia lakou. No laila, Dolphins noiʻi ua pio e hoʻopaʻa haʻawina 'ana. Noiʻi e hoʻopaʻa haʻawina kānaka, ma ka kekahi lima, e lawe ka lanakila o ka mea a makou i komo ke kamaʻilio. E noi ana kanaka nīnau Ua pio ka polokalamu nui i kekahi hapa o ka lawelawe noiʻi no ka mea, he lōʻihi ka manawa, a me ka kikohoʻe makahiki elua mau hiʻohiʻona nō a pono kekahi loli ma ka anamanaʻo noiʻi. I loko nō o ka pessimism i kekahi anamanaʻo noiʻi a ianoiyuaa a haha ​​aku, Ke manaʻo nei e ka mīkini makahiki ana i lilo he gula makahiki he anamanaʻo noiʻi.

I ka moolelo o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi hiki ke'ōlelo pākīkē mai maheleia i ekolu overlapping o ka'āina, i hoʻokaʻawaleʻia elua mokomoko nā mahele (Groves 2011; Converse 1987) . Pono Ano ka mea, iloko o ka manawa o ka hoʻololi ma waena o ka lua a me ke kolu o ka'āina, akā,ʻo ka mua a me ka lua o ka lā, e like me ka hoʻololi ma waena o lākou, hoomakaukau iʻikeʻia i loko o ka wā e hiki mai o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi.

Iloko o ke au mua o anamanaʻo noiʻi, me kaʻoʻoleʻa 1930 - 1960, Aey? Acaeoey ma ka 'epekema mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a me ka ninaninau' ana i nā kūpono ai ka laekahi naauao o ke anamanaʻo noiʻi. Ke au mua o ke anamanaʻo noiʻi, ua wehewehe aku ma ka wahi probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a me ka maka-i-maka ninaninau 'ana.

A laila, heʻanoʻenehana kūpono 'ana, i ka laha diffusion o ka landline kaul ma ka waiwai'āina-e ho'ōla alakaʻi ai i ka lua o ka au o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi. Keia lua au, pakike mai 1960 - 2000, ua wehewehe aku e kaulele huahelu dialing (RDD) probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, a me kelepona ninaninau 'ana. Ka hoololi, mai ka mua au i ka lua o ka au hou kūpono ai ka nui piʻina ma ka hoʻokōʻana a me ka emi ma ka waiwai e lilo aku. Nui noiʻi manaʻo i kēia lua o ka'āina e like me ka puna makahiki he anamanaʻo noiʻi.

Ano, kekahiʻanoʻenehana kūpono '-ka mīkini makahiki, e ho'ōla lawe mai kakou i ke kolu o ka au o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi. Keia hoʻololi mea i hooauhee aku ai ia e na pale, ae huki kumu. Ma ka aoao, noiʻi ua i pio e loli no ka mea, ke hoʻokokoke mai, mai ka lua o ka au hou e wāwahi iho i loko o ka mīkini makahiki (Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . No ka mea, laʻana, oi a oi home loaa ole ia oukou landline helu kelepona a me nā-pane kumu-respondents i kekahi laʻana aka, mai komo i loko o ana-i mahuahua (Council 2013) . Simultaneous i keia breakdown o ka lua-au hou hoʻokokoke mai i ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a me ka nīnauele, aohe mea e māhuahua loaʻao ka nui ikepili kumu (e nānā Chapter 2) e 'ōili mai, e olelo hooweliweli aku i ka puku ana. Ma waho aʻeo kēia mau pale wale kumu, malaila ua hoi huki kumumea; i ke kolu o ka au hou hoʻokokoke mai e kaumaha aku i hiki ole pōmaikaʻi, e like me kaʻu e hoike i loko o kēia mokuna. Eia nae na mea a pau, aole ihola ia noho nae, I nui nei i ke kolu o ka au o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi e wehewehe aku ma ka ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, a me kekahi polokalamu kamepiula,-lawelawe ninaninau 'ana. Eia, eia nae ka mua o ka'āina i wehewehe aku e ko lakou mau hoʻokokoke mai i ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku a me ka nīnauele, I nui nei i ke kolu o ka au o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi e, e wehewehe aku no hoi ma ka linkage o ana me ka nui ikepili kumu (Oaaeeoea 3.1).

Ka hoʻololi ma waena o ka lua a me ke kolu o ka'āina o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi i ole i loa malimali, a malaila ua ikaika ka hakaka e pili ana i ka noiʻi e hoomau aku. Nana ole i hope ma ka hoʻololi ma waena o ka mua a me ka lua o ka lā, ke manao nei au aia no kekahi kiʻike no kakou ano, ke kumu, aole i ka hopena. Ka mea, initially nui ka lua-au epekema he me-hoc, a i 'Aʻole e holopono loa ma laila. Aka, ma ka hana hana, noiʻi Hoʻoponopono 'mau pilikia, a me ka lua-au hoʻokokoke mai e ho'ōla uaʻoi aku ma mua o mua-au hoʻokokoke mai. No ka mea, laʻana, noiʻi ua hana kelepona kaulele huahelu dialing no ka mea, he nui na makahiki i mua o Mitofsky, a me Waksberg nui kaulele huahelu dialing mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku iaoia mea i maikaʻi mea hiki a theoretical ka waiwai (Waksberg 1978; Brick and Tucker 2007) . Pela, kakou e hookahuli ai i ka he o kolu-au hou hoʻokokoke mai, me ko lakou mau hope loa nā haumāna. I ka moolelo o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi mea e akaka ai ka mahinaʻai evolves, kipaku ia e loli i ka 'ike loea hou a me ka lehulehu. Aole he ala e hooki aku i ka evolution. E aho, e apo mai makou ia mea, oiai e hoomau ana i ka unuhi i ka naauao mai o ka'āina ma mua. I ka mea, ke manaoio nei au i ka mīkini makahiki, e lilo i ka mea hoʻopīhoihoi, makahiki hoi no ka poe kanaka nīnau e noi ana.

Ke koena o ka mokuna hoʻomaka ma ka arguing ua nui ikepili kumu e, aole e puku ana, a ua ka nui o ka aeaiiuo, piʻi pū-aole emi-o ka waiwai o ana (Pauku 3.2). Haawiia mai ia ways, E hōʻuluʻulu i ka huina anamanaʻo hewa o keia hoopunipuni? Aieao (Pauku 3.3) i? Ac? Ana i ka elua o ka'āina mua o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi. Keia? Aieao i mau hiʻohiʻona nō kākou e hoʻomaopopo hou hoʻokokoke mai i kekahi loio, i like, ole probability Eia kekahi laʻana (Pauku 3.4) -and hou hoʻokokoke mai ia e ana-ma nui, hou aoao o ka noi ana nīnau i respondents (Pauku 3.5). Eia ke oki, I e hōʻike elua noiʻi UAAIIeIU no ka mea, e kuhikuhi ana anamanaʻo aeaiiua i nui ikepili kumu (Pauku 3.6).