4.4.1 tushe

Tushe tana nufin nawa sakamakon wani gwajin goyi bayan wani karin general ƙarshe.

No gwaji ne m, kuma masu bincike sun ɓullo da wani m ƙamus don bayyana yiwu matsaloli. Tushe tana nufin har zuwa abin da sakamakon wani gwajin goyi bayan wasu karin general ƙarshe. Social masana kimiyya sun gano shi m raba tushe zuwa hudu main iri: ilimin kididdiga ƙarshe tushe, ciki tushe, yi inganci, kuma external tushe (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, Ch 2) . Mastering wadannan Concepts za ta samar da ku a shafi tunanin mutum tanadin for critiquing da kuma inganta zane da kuma bincike na wani gwaji, kuma shi zai taimake ka ka sadarwa tare da sauran masu bincike.

Ilimin kididdiga ƙarshe tushe cibiyoyin a kusa ko na ilimin kididdiga analysis na gwaji da aka yi daidai. A cikin mahallin Schultz et al. (2007) da irin wannan tambaya zai Cibiyar ko sun lissafta su p-dabi'u daidai. Ilimin kididdiga analysis ne bayan da ikon yinsa, daga wannan littafin, amma ba zan iya ce da ilimin kididdiga ka'idojin da ake bukata a zana da kuma bincika gwaje-gwajen ba su canza a cikin digital shekaru. Duk da haka, daban-daban data muhalli a digital gwaje-gwajen ya haifar da sabon ilimin kididdiga damar (misali, ta amfani da na'ura koyo hanyoyi don kimanta heterogeneity magani effects (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) ) da kuma sabon mai aiki da na'urar kwamfuta kalubale (misali, tarewa a m gwajen (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) ).

Ciki tushe cibiyoyin a kusa ko gwaji hanyoyin da aka yi daidai. Komowa zuwa gwaji na Schultz et al. (2007) , tambayoyi game da ciki tushe iya cibiyar kusa da randomization, bayarwa na lura, da kuma ji na sakamakon. Alal misali, za ka iya zama da damuwa da cewa bincike mataimakansa ba karanta lantarki mita dogara. A gaskiya ma, Schultz da kuma abokan aiki sun damu game da wannan matsala kuma suna da wani samfuri na mita karanta sau biyu. sa'a, sakamakon kasance da gaske m. A general, Schultz da kuma abokan aiki 'gwaji bayyana a yi high ciki tushe, amma wannan ba ko da yaushe haka al'amarin. hadaddun filin da kuma online gwajen sau da yawa gudu zuwa cikin matsalolin zahiri haihuwa da hakkin magani da hakkin mutane da kuma aunawa da sakamakon ga kowa da kowa. Sa'a, da digital haihuwa zai iya taimakawa wajen rage damuwa game ciki tushe domin shi ya sa shi sauki don tabbatar da cewa magani ne tsĩrar da tsara wa waɗanda suka kamata a yi maka shi, kuma don auna sakamakon ga dukan mahalarta.

Sana'anta tushe cibiyoyin a kusa da wasa tsakanin data da msar tambayar gina. Kamar yadda aka tattauna a Babi na 2, gina su ne m Concepts cewa zamantakewa masana kimiyya dalili game da. Abin baƙin ciki, wadannan m Concepts ba ko da yaushe suna bayyana ma'anar da ma'aunai. Komowa zuwa Schultz et al. (2007) , da da'awar cewa injunctive zamantakewa norms iya rage wutar lantarki amfani bukatar bincike don tsara wani magani da zai yi amfani da "injunctive zamantakewa norms" (misali, wani alamar fuskar da suke) da kuma auna "wutar lantarki amfani". A analog gwaje-gwajen, da yawa masu bincike tsara nasu jiyya da kuma auna nasu sakamakon. Wannan dabarar tabbatar da cewa, kamar yadda ta yiwu, da gwaje-gwajen da ta dace da m gina ake karatu. A digital gwaje-gwajen da masu bincike, inda abokin tarayya tare da kamfanoni ko gwamnatoci ya sadar jiyya da kuma amfani da ko da yaushe-on data tsarin auna sakamakon, wasan tsakanin gwaji da msar tambayar gina iya zama ƙasa da m. Saboda haka, ina sa ran cewa gina tushe za ayan zama mai girma damuwa a digital gwaje-gwajen da analog gwaje-gwajen.

A karshe, external tushe cibiyoyin a kusa ko sakamakon wannan gwajin zai generalize zuwa wasu yanayi. Komowa zuwa Schultz et al. (2007) , wanda zai iya tambayar, so wannan ra'ayin-samar da mutane bayanai game da makamashi yadda ake amfani a dangantaka zuwa ga takwarorina da kuma wata sigina na injunctive norms (misali, an alamar fuskar da suke) -reduce makamashi amfani idan aka yi a cikin wani daban-daban hanya a daban-daban saitin? Ga mafi yawan da-tsara da kuma da-gudu gwaje-gwajen, damuwa game da external tushe ne mafi wuya ga magance. A baya, wadannan muhawara game da external tushe kasance akai-akai kamar wani gungu na mutane zaune a cikin daki kokarin kwatanta abin da zai yi ya faru idan hanyoyin da aka aikata a cikin wani daban-daban hanya, ko a cikin wani daban-daban wuri, ko da mutane daban-daban. Sa'a, da digital shekaru sa masu bincike don motsawa bayan waɗannan bayanan-free baki da kuma tantance external tushe empirically.

Domin sakamakon daga Schultz et al. (2007) sun kasance haka m, wani kamfani mai suna Opower gwiwa da utilities a Amurka ya tura lura more yadu. Bisa ga zane na Schultz et al. (2007) , Opower halitta musamman Home Energy Rahotanni cewa yana da biyu main kayayyaki, daya nuna a iyali ta wutar lantarki mai cutarwa dangi zuwa makwabtanta da wani alamar fuskar da suke kuma daya samar tips for ragewan makamashi amfani (Figure 4.6). Sa'an nan kuma, tare da haɗin gwiwar masu bincike, Opower gudu yi da ka sarrafawa gwajen tantance tasiri na Home Energy Rahotanni. Ko da yake da jiyya a cikin wadannan gwaje-gwajen da aka yawanci tsĩrar jiki-yawanci ta haihuwa kera katantanwa mail-da sakamako da aka auna ta amfani da digital na'urorin a cikin jiki a duniya (misali, ikon mita). Maimakon hannu tattara wannan bayani da bincike mataimakansa ziyartar kowane gidan, da Opower gwaje-gwajen da aka yi duk tare da haɗin gwiwar ikon kamfanonin kunna da masu bincike don samun damar da ikon karatu. Saboda haka, wa'yannan partially digital filin gwaje-gwajen da aka gudanar a wani m sikelin a low cost m.

Figure 4.6: A Home Energy Rahotanni a Allcott (2011) yana da Social Kwatanta Module da wani Action Matakai Module.

A cikin wata na farko ya kafa gwajen shafe 600,000 gidaje bauta da 10 mai amfani kamfanoni a kusa da United States, Allcott (2011) sami Home Energy Report saukar da wutar lantarki amfani da 1.7%. A wasu kalmomin, sakamakon daga da yawa ya fi girma, more geographically bambancin binciken kasance qualitatively kama da sakamakon daga Schultz et al. (2007) . Amma, da sakamako size ya karami: a Schultz et al. (2007) da gidaje a cikin siffatawa da injective norms yanayin (da daya tare da alamar fuskar da suke) rage su da wutar lantarki mai cutarwa daga 5%. The daidai dalilin wannan bambanci ne ba a sani ba, amma Allcott (2011) Jita-jitar cewa samun wani handwritten alamar fuskar da suke a matsayin wani ɓangare na wani binciken sponsored by a jami'a sami wani ya fi girma sakamako a kan hali fiye da samun wani buga alamar fuskar da suke a matsayin wani ɓangare na wani taro samar rahoto daga wani ikon kamfanin.

Bugu da ari, a m bincike, Allcott (2015) ya ruwaito a kan wani ƙarin 101 gwajen shafe ƙarin miliyan 8 gidaje. A cikin wadannan m 101 gwaje-gwajen da Home Energy Report ci gaba da sa mutane su runtse daga wutar lantarki amfani, amma effects kasance har karami. The daidai dalilin wannan ƙi ba a san, amma Allcott (2015) Jita-jitar da tasiri na rahoton ya bayyana da za a ragewa a kan lokaci domin an zahiri da ake amfani da su daban-daban na mahalarta. More musamman, utilities a mafi muhalli yankunan kasance mafi m dauko shirin baya da abokan ciniki kasance mafi m ga magani. As utilities da kasa muhalli abokan ciniki soma shirin, ingancinta ya bayyana samun koma baya. Saboda haka, kamar yadda randomization a gwaje-gwajen da tabbatar da cewa jiyya da kuma kula da kungiyar masu kama, randomization a gudanar da bincike sites tabbatar da cewa kimomi iya jimlace su daga wani daya rukuni na mahalarta zuwa more general yawan (zaton koma Babi na 3 game da daukan samfur). Idan bincike sites ba su dauka samfur da ka, to, hakan-ko da daga daidai tsara da kuma gudanar da gwaje-gwaje-iya zama matsala.

Tare, waɗannan 111 gwajen-10 a Allcott (2011) da kuma 101 a Allcott (2015) -involved game 8.5 miliyan gidaje daga ko'ina cikin {asar Amirka. Suka consistently nuna cewa Home Energy Rahotanni rage talakawan wutar lantarki amfani, a sakamakon cewa tana goyon bayan ainihin binciken na Schultz da kuma abokan aiki daga 300 gidajensu a California. Beyond kawai rubanya wadannan asali sakamakon, da bi-up gwaje-gwajen kuma nuna cewa girman da sakamako dabam da location. Wannan ya kafa gwaje-gwajen kuma misalta biyu more general maki game partially digital filin gwaje-gwajen. Na farko, masu bincike za su iya empirically address damuwa game da external tushe a lõkacin da kudin a guje gwajen ne low, kuma wannan zai iya faruwa idan sakamako An riga ana auna da wani ko da yaushe-on data tsarin. Saboda haka, yana da shawara cewa bincike ya kamata a look-fito da wasu ban sha'awa da kuma muhimmanci halayyar da aka riga da ake rubuta, sa'an nan kuma tsara gwaje-gwajen a saman wannan data kasance ma'auni kayayyakin. Na biyu, wannan ya kafa gwajen na tunashe mu cewa digital filin gwajen ne ba kawai online. ƙara na sa ran cewa za su kasance a ko'ina da yawa sakamakon auna da na'urori masu auna sigina a gina muhalli.

The hudu iri tushe-ilimin kididdiga ƙarshe tushe, ciki tushe, yi inganci, external tushe-samar da wani shafi tunanin mutum tanadin taimaka masu bincike tantance ko sakamakon daga wani gwaji goyi bayan wani karin general ƙarshe. Idan aka kwatanta da analog shekaru gwaje-gwajen, a digital shekaru gwaje-gwajen da ya kamata a yi sauki don magance external tushe empirically kuma ya kamata a yi sauki don tabbatar da ciki tushe. A daya hannun, al'amurran da suka shafi gina tushe zai yiwuwa ya zama mafi kalubale a digital shekaru gwajen (ko da yake wannan ba haka al'amarin da Opower gwajen).