6.6.4 Making yanke shawara a fuskar rashin tabbas

Rashin tabbas bukata ba kai ga sakaci.

The hudu da na karshe yankin inda na sa ran masu bincike zuwa fafitikar da aka yanke shawara a fuskar rashin tabbas. Wancan ne, bayan dukan philosophizing kuma daidaita, bincike xa'a ya shafi yanke shawara game da abin da ya yi da abin da ba su yi. Abin baƙin ciki, wadannan yanke shawara sau da yawa dole ne a yi bisa bai cika bayani. Alal misali, a lokacin da zayyana Encore, masu bincike zai so su san yiwuwar cewa za ta sa mutum ya zama ya ziyarci 'yan sanda. Ko kuma, a lokacin da zayyana Wani tunanin Contagion bincike zai so su san yiwuwa cewa shi zai iya fararwa ciki a wasu mahalarta. Wadannan yiwuwa ne mai yiwuwa musamman low, amma sun kasance ba a sani ba kafin bincike faruwa. Kuma, saboda ba aikin fili sa ido bayani game da m events, wadannan yiwuwar ba da kullum da aka sani ko da bayan ayyukan da aka kammala.

Ne uncertainties ba musamman zuwa zamantakewa da bincike a cikin digital shekaru. The Belmont Report, a lõkacin da ta kwatanta din kima na kasada da kuma amfanin, baro-baro ya sani wadannan za su zama da wahala to quantify daidai. Wadannan uncertainties, duk da haka, sun fi tsanani a cikin dijital shekaru, a sashi saboda muna da kasa kwarewa, da kuma a wani gefen, saboda daga cikin halaye na digital shekaru zamantakewa bincike.

Ganin wadannan uncertainties wasu mutane suna neman su yi umurni da wani abu kamar "m lafiya da hakuri," wanda yake shi ne wani salon magana version na rigakafi {a'ida. Duk da yake wannan m bayyana m-watakila ma m-shi iya zahiri sa cuta. an chilling to bincike. kuma shi sa mutane tunani a hanyar da ba daidai (Sunstein 2005) . Domin ya fahimci matsalolin da rigakafi {a'ida, bari mu yi la'akari da Wani tunanin Contagion. The gwajin da aka shirya ya unsa game 700.000 mutane, kuma akwai lalle wani damar cewa mutanen da a cikin gwaji zai sha wahala cuta. Amma, akwai kuma wasu da dama da gwajin zai iya samar da ilmi da zai zama da amfani ga Facebook masu amfani da kuma don jama'a. Saboda haka, yayin da kyale gwajin ne a hadarin (kamar yadda aka zuba tattauna), hana gwajin ne kuma a hadarin domin gwajin zai iya samar da muhimmanci ilimi. Hakika, da zabi ba tsakanin yin gwaji kamar yadda ya faru, kuma ba yin gwaji. akwai mutane da yawa m gyare-gyare da zane da zai kawo shi a cikin wani daban-daban da'a balance. Duk da haka, a wani matsayi, masu bincike za su zabi tsakanin yin wani binciken da ba yin wani binciken, kuma akwai kasada a duka mataki da sakaci. Yana da bai dace ba da hankali kawai a kan kasada na mataki. Quite kawai, babu wani hadarin-free m.

Motsi hayin rigakafi {a'ida, daya muhimmanci hanyar tunani game da yanke shawara ba rashin tabbas ne kadan hadarin misali. The kadan hadarin misali yunkurin nasa tarihin hadarin wani binciken da kasada da cewa mahalarta gudanar a yau da kullum rayuwar, kamar wasa wasanni da kuma tuki motoci (Wendler et al. 2005) . Wannan m ne m saboda kimantawa ko wani abu ne kadan hadarin shi ne sauki fiye da kimantawa da ainihin matakin hadarin. Alal misali, a Wani tunanin Contagion, da bincike fara, da masu bincike sun iya idan aka kwatanta da wani tunanin abun ciki a kan abin da ke faruwa ta halitta News Ciyar da wani tunanin abun ciki wanda mahalarta zai gani a cikin gwaji (Meyer 2015) . Idan News Kafofi karkashin lura kasance kamar irin waɗanda cewa halitta faruwa on Facebook, to, da masu bincike zai iya kammala da cewa, gwajin ne kadan hadarin. Kuma, za su iya yi wannan hukunci ko ba su sani ba cikin cikakkar matakin hadarin. Haka m za a iya amfani da su Encore. Da farko, Encore jawo buƙatun to yanar da aka sani ya zama m, kamar yanar na dakatar kungiyoyin siyasa a cikin kasashen da haramta shi gwamnatoci. Kamar yadda irin wannan, shi ne ba kadan hadarin for mahalarta a wasu ƙasashe. Duk da haka, da bita version of Encore-abin da kawai jawo buƙatun to Twitter da Facebook da kuma YouTube-ne kadan request domin buƙatun ga waɗanda sites suna jawo a lokacin al'ada yanar gizo browsing (Narayanan and Zevenbergen 2015) .

A karo na biyu da muhimmanci ra'ayin shi ne a lokacin da yin yanke shawara game da karatu tare da ba a sani ba hadarin shi ne ikon analysis, wanda damar masu bincike yin lissafi da ya dace size ga binciken (Cohen 1988) . Wancan ne, idan ka yi karatu zai bijirar mahalarta hadarin-ma kadan hadarin-to qa'ida ta karimci da shawara cewa kana so ka gabatar da karami adadin hadarin da ake bukata don cimma your bincike a raga. (Tunani baya ga Rage manufa da na tattauna a Babi na 4.) Ko da yake wasu masu bincike da wani kamu da wani ra'ayi tare da yin su da karatu a matsayin babban matsayin da zai yiwu, bincike xa'a da shawara cewa ya kamata mu yi mu karatu a matsayin karamin wuri. Saboda haka, ko da ba ku sani ba ainihin matakin hadarin your binciken ya shafi, a ikon analysis zai taimake ka tabbatar da cewa shi ne a matsayin karamin wuri. Power analysis ba sabon, ba shakka, amma akwai wani muhimmin bambanci tsakanin hanyar da aka yi amfani a cikin analog shekaru da kuma yadda ya kamata a yi amfani da yau. A cikin analog shekaru, masu bincike kullum yi iko analysis don tabbatar da cewa su yi karatu ba ma kananan (ie, a karkashin-Powered). Yanzu, duk da haka, masu bincike ya yi ƙarfi analysis don tabbatar da cewa su yi karatu ba ma babban (ie, a kan-Powered). Idan ka yi a ikon bincike da kuma m binciken ya bayyana bukatar wani babban yawan mutanen da, to, wanda zai iya zama wata ãyã cewa sakamako kana nazarin ne kankanin. Idan haka ne, ya kamata ka tambayi ko wannan karamin sakamako ne isasshe da muhimmanci a gabatar da wani babban yawan mutane su kasada na wani unknown size. A da yawa yanayi amsar ne mai yiwuwa ba (Prentice and Miller 1992) .

The kadan hadarin misali da iko analysis taimako ku hankalta game da zane karatu, amma ba su samar maka da wani sabon bayani game da yadda mahalarta su ji game da binciken da kuma abin da hadari su fuskanci daga musharaka cikin binciken. Wata hanya da za a magance rashin tabbas ne ya tattara ƙarin bayani, wadda take kaiwa zuwa da'a-amsa safiyo da aiwatar da wasannin gwaji.

A da'a-amsa safiyo, masu bincike gabatar da wani taƙaitaccen bayanin a samarwa bincike aikin, sa'an nan ka tambaye biyu tambayoyi:

• (Q1) "Idan wani ya kai kula game kasance a takarar takara ga wannan gwaji, za ka so wannan mutumin da za a hada a matsayin ɗan takara?": [A], [ni da wani fifiko], [No]
• (Q2) "Kada ku yi imani da cewa masu bincike ya kamata a yarda su ci gaba da wannan gwaji?": [A], [I, amma tare da taka tsantsan], [Ba ni da tabbacin], [No]

Bayan kowace tambaya, weights suna bayar a sarari a cikin abin da za su iya bayyana da amsar. A karshe, weights-wa zai iya zama m mahalarta ko mutane dauka daga wani micro-aiki aiki kasuwanni (misali, Amazon Mechanical Turk) -answer wasu muhimman alƙaluma tambayoyi (Schechter and Bravo-Lillo 2014) .

Da'a-amsa safiyo da biyu fasali da zan samu musamman m. Na farko, su faru kafin wani binciken da aka gudanar, sabili da haka zai iya hana matsaloli da bincike fara (as tsayayya da su fuskanci cewa saka idanu ga m halayen). Na biyu, mai da'a-amsa safiyo taimaka masu bincike da haifar da mahara versions wani bincike aikin domin tantance gane da'a ma'auni na daban-daban versions daga cikin wannan aikin. Daya iyakancewa ba, duk da haka, na da'a-amsa safiyo ne cewa shi ne, ba bayyana yadda za a shirya tsakanin daban-daban da bincike kayayyaki ba da binciken results. A lokuta da matsananci rashin tabbas irin wannan bayani zai taimake shiryarwa masu bincike 'yanke shawara; a gaskiya, Schechter and Bravo-Lillo (2014) rahoton bar a shirya binciken a mayar da martani ga damuwa tashe ta mahalarta a cikin wani da'a-amsa binciken.

Duk da yake da'a-amsa safiyo na iya zama taimako ga kimantawa halayen to samarwa bincike, ba za su iya auna ko yiwuwa tsanani daga m events. Daya hanyar da likita bincike magance rashin tabbas a high-hadarin saituna aka aiwatar gwaji, an m da zai zama da taimako a wasu zamantakewa bincike.

A lokacin da gwada tasiri da wani sabon magani, masu bincike ba su nan da nan tsalle zuwa babban asibiti yi da ka fitina. Ã'a, sun gudu iri biyu karatu na farko. Da farko, a cikin wani Phase I shari'a, masu bincike suna musamman mayar da hankali kan gano wani hadari kashi, kuma waɗannan karatu unsa karamin yawan mutane. Da zarar wani hadari kashi aka gano, Phase II gwaji tantance inganci da miyagun ƙwayoyi, yana da ikon aiki a cikin wani m-harka halin da ake ciki (Singal, Higgins, and Waljee 2014) . Sai bayan Phase I da na II karatu shi ne wani sabon magani yarda da za a kiyasta a cikin wani babban yi da ka sarrafawa fitina. Duk da yake ainihin tsarin aiwatar gwaji amfani a cikin cin gaban sabuwar kwayoyi bazai mai kyau Fit ga zamantakewa da bincike, a lõkacin da fuskantar rashin tabbas, masu bincike zai iya gudu karami karatu baro-baro tsara don tantance lafiya da kuma inganci. Alal misali, tare da Encore, kana iya kwatanta da masu bincike suka fara da mahalarta a cikin kasashen da karfi mulkin-of-doka.

Tare da wadannan hudu fuskanci-da kadan hadarin misali, ikon analysis, da'a-amsa safiyo, da aiwatar da wasannin gwaji-iya taimake ka ci gaba a cikin wani m hanya, har ma a fuskar rashin tabbas. Rashin tabbas bukata ba kai ga sakaci.