3.4.3 Non-Yiwuwar samfurori: sample matching

Ba dukan wadanda yiwuwa samfurori iri daya ne. Muna iya ƙara ƙarin iko a gaban karshen.

The m Wang da abokan aiki amfani da su kimanta sakamakon da 2012 US zaben shugaban kasar dogara gaba ɗaya kan inganta data analysis. Wato, suka tattara da yawa martani kamar yadda suka iya, sa'an nan kuma yunkurin sake nauyi su. A karin dabarun don aiki tare da wadanda ba yiwuwar daukan samfur ne don samun karin iko a kan data tarin tsari.

The sauki misali da wani partially sarrafawa ba yiwuwar daukan samfur tsari ne keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur, wata dabara da cewa ya koma zuwa ga farkon zamanin binciken bincike. A keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur, masu bincike raba yawan cikin daban-daban kungiyoyin (misali, samari, matasa da mata, da dai sauransu), sa'an nan kuma ya kafa Ƙa'idodi ga yawan mutanen da za a zaba a kowane rukuni. Weights aka zaba a cikin wani taragutsan hanya har sai bincike ya gana da keɓaɓɓen yawa a kowane kungiya. Domin daga cikin Ƙa'idodi, sakamakon sample dubi more kamar manufa yawan fiye da zai zama gaskiya in ba haka ba, amma saboda yiwuwa na hada ne unknown yawa masu bincike ne m na keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur. A gaskiya ma, keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur wani dalili na "Dewey Ci Truman" kuskure a cikin 1948 US Shugaban zaben. Domin shi na samar da wani iko a kan daukan samfur tsari, duk da haka, wanda zai iya ganin yadda keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur sami wasu abũbuwan amfãni a kan gaba daya uncontrolled data collection.

Motsi bayan keɓaɓɓen yawa daukan samfur, more zamani hanyoyin iko da maras yiwuwa daukan samfur tsari ne yanzu zai yiwu. Wata irin wannan m ake kira samfurin iri daya, kuma an yi amfani da wasu kasuwanci online panel azurtawa. A da sauki tsari, sample matching bukatar biyu data kafofin: 1) a complete Register na jama'a da 2) babban panel 'yan sa kai. Yana da muhimmanci cewa masu sa kai ba ka bukatar ka zama mai yiwuwa sample daga wata alƙarya, jaddada cewa akwai wani da bukatun ga selection cikin panel, zan kira shi wani datti panel. Har ila yau, har da yawan Register da datti panel dole ne sun hada da wasu karin bayanai game da kowane mutum, a cikin wannan misali, zan duba da shekaru da kuma jima'i, amma a idon basira yanayi wannan karin bayani zai iya zama fiye da cikakken. A abin zamba da samfurin iri daya ne don zaɓar samfurori daga wani datti panel a hanyar da samar samfurori da cewa kama yiwuwa samfurori.

Sample matching fara a lõkacin da wata abunda aka kwaikwaya yiwuwa sample aka ɗauke ta daga yawan Register. wannan abunda aka kwaikwaya sample zama manufa samfurin. Sa'an nan kuma, bisa ga karin bayani, lokuta a cikin manufa samfurin ana dace da mutane a cikin datti panel samar da wata dace samfurin. Alal misali, idan akwai 25 year old mace a cikin manufa samfurin, to, bincike sami wani 25 year old mace daga datti panel zama a cikin dace samfurin. A karshe, yan dace samfurin ana hira, don samar da karshe kafa weights.

Ko da yake da dace sample kama da manufa samfurin, yana da muhimmanci mu tuna cewa dace sample ba yiwuwa samfurin. Dace samfurori iya kawai ta dace da manufa samfurin a san karin bayani (misali, shekaru da kuma jima'i), amma ba a kan unmeasured halaye. Alal misali, idan mutane a kan m panel ayan zama poorer-bayan duk, daya dalili shiga wani binciken panel shi ne ya sami kudi-to koda dace sample kama da manufa samfurin cikin sharuddan shekaru da jima'i zai har yanzu suna a nuna bambanci zuwa ga talakawa. The sihiri na gaskiya yiwuwar daukan samfur ne sarauta daga matsaloli a kan biyu auna da unmeasured halaye (a aya da ke daidai da mu tattaunawa na matching for causal hasashe daga observational karatu a Babi na 2).

A yi, sample matching dogara da ciwon babban kuma bambancin panel m don kammala safiyo, kuma ta haka shi ne yafi yi da kamfanonin da za su iya ci gaba da kuma kula da irin wannan panel. Har ila yau, a yi, za a iya samun matsaloli tare da matching (wani lokacin mai kyau wasa na wani a cikin manufa samfurin ba ya wanzu a panel) da kuma wadanda ba amsa (wani lokacin mutane a dace sample ki shiga a cikin binciken). Saboda haka, a yi, masu bincike yin samfurin iri daya kuma yi wani irin post-stratification gyara don yin kimomi.

Yana da wuya don samar da amfani msar tambayar tabbacin game sample matching, amma a yi da shi zai iya yi da kyau. Alal misali, Stephen Ansolabehere kuma Brian Schaffner (2014) idan aka kwatanta da uku a layi daya safiyo game da mutane 1,000 gudanar a shekara ta 2010 ta yin amfani da uku daban-daban daukan samfur da tambayoyi hanyoyin: mail, tarho, da kuma wani Internet panel amfani sample matching da post-stratification gyara. The kimomi daga uku fuskanci kasance quite kama kimomi daga high quality-asowar kamar Current Population Survey (CPS) da National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). More musamman, biyu da yanar-gizo da mail safiyo kasance kashe da wani talakawan of 3 yawan maki da kuma wayar binciken ya kashe ta 4 yawan maki. Kurakurai wannan babban kimanin abin da daya zai sa ran daga samfurori game da mutane 1,000. Ko da yake, babu wani daga cikin wadannan halaye samar ma mafi alhẽri data, da da yanar-gizo da wayar binciken (wanda ya dauki kwanaki ko makonni) sun kasance ma sauri zuwa filin daga da mail binciken (wanda ya dauki watanni takwas), da kuma Internet binciken, wanda amfani da samfurin iri daya, ya mai rahusa fiye da sauran biyu halaye.

A ƙarshe, zamantakewa masana kimiyya da statisticians ne mai wuce yarda m na inferences daga wadannan wadanda ba yiwuwa samfurori, a sashi saboda ana hade tare da wasu m kasawa na binciken bincike kamar Literary Digest zabe. A bangare, Na yarda da wannan shakka: unadjusted ba yiwuwa samfurori ne m, don samar da miyagun kimomi. Duk da haka, idan masu bincike za su iya daidaita ga biases a daukan samfur tsari (misali, post-stratification) ko sarrafa daukan samfur tsari da ɗan (misali, sample matching), za su iya samar da mafi alhẽri kimomi, har ma da kimomi na isa quality ga mafi dalilai. Hakika, shi zai zama mafi alhẽri yi daidai kashe yiwuwar daukan samfur, amma wannan ba ya bayyana a wani idon basira zaɓi.

Dukansu ba yiwuwa samfurori da kuma yiwuwar samfurori bambanta a cikin quality, kuma a halin yanzu shi ne wata ila al'amarin da cewa mafi kimomi daga yiwuwa samfurori ne mafi amintacce fiye da kimomi daga wadanda ba yiwuwa samfurori. Amma, har yanzu, kimomi daga rijiya-gudanar wadanda yiwuwa samfurori ne mai yiwuwa mafi alhẽri daga kimomi daga talauci-gudanar yiwuwa samfurori. Bugu da ari, wadanda ba yiwuwa samfurori ne ma mai rahusa. Saboda haka, shi ya bayyana cewa yiwuwar samun vs ba yiwuwar daukan samfur yayi wani kudin-quality ciniki-kashe (Figure 3.6). Neman gaba, ina sa ran cewa kimomi daga rijiya-yi ba yiwuwa samfurori zai zama mai rahusa, kuma mafi alhẽri. Bugu da ari, saboda rashin lafiya a landline tarho safiyo da kuma kara kudaden da ba amsa, ina sa ran cewa yiwuwar samun samfurori zai zama mafi tsada da kuma na ƙananan quality. Saboda wadannan dogon lokaci trends, ina ganin cewa ba yiwuwar daukan samfur zai zama ƙara muhimmanci a cikin na uku na zamanin binciken bincike.

Figure 3.6: Yiwuwar daukan samfur a yi da kuma wadanda ba yiwuwar daukan samfur ne duka manyan, iri-irin Categories. A general, akwai kudin-kuskure ciniki-kashe da wadanda ba yiwuwar daukan samfur kasancewa ƙananan kudin amma hakan kuskure. Duk da haka, da-yi ba yiwuwar daukan samfur iya samar da mafi alhẽri kimomi fiye da talauci-yi yiwuwa daukan samfur. A nan gaba, na sa ran cewa wadanda yiwuwa daukan samfur zai samu mafi alhẽri, kuma mai rahusa, alhãli kuwa yiwuwa daukan samfur zai samu mafi muni kuma mafi tsada.