4.4.3 Sassan

Gwaje-gwajen gwada abin da ya faru. Sassan bayyana dalilin da ya sa da kuma yadda ya faru.

Hanya na uku ta hanyar motsawa fiye da gwaje-gwaje mai sauƙi shine sassa . Ra'ayoyin nuna mana dalilin da ya sa ko yadda magani ya haifar da sakamako. Ana yin amfani da hanyoyin bincike na kayan aiki a wasu lokutan neman neman shiga tsakani ko kuma yin musayar maɓamai . Kodayake gwaje-gwaje na da kyau don kimanta sakamakon lalacewar, ba a tsara su ba don bayyana hanyoyin. Ƙwararrun gwaje-gwaje na iya taimaka mana gano hanyoyin da hanyoyi guda biyu: (1) suna taimaka mana mu tattara ƙarin bayanai da kuma (2) suna taimaka mana mu gwada magunguna masu yawa.

Saboda abubuwan da suke da mahimmanci sun bayyana a fili (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , zan fara da misali mai sauki: limes da scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . A karni na goma sha takwas, likitoci sunyi kyau sosai cewa lokacin da ma'aikatan jirgin ruwa suka ci abinci, ba su damu ba. Scurvy wani mummunan cuta ne, saboda haka wannan shine babban bayani. Amma waɗannan likitoci ba su san dalilin da yasa lambobin ya hana su ba. Ba sai 1932 ba, kusan shekaru 200 bayan haka, masana kimiyya zasu iya tabbatar da cewa bitamin C shine dalilin da cewa lemun tsami ya hana scurvy (Carpenter 1988, 191) . A wannan yanayin, bitamin C ne inji ta hanyar abin da limes hana scurvy (adadi 4.10). Tabbas, gano ma'anar injin shine mahimmancin kimiyyar kimiyya-kuri'a na kimiyya shine fahimtar dalilin da yasa abubuwa suke faruwa. Gano mahimmanci yana da matukar muhimmanci sosai. Da zarar mun fahimci dalilin da yasa magani yake aiki, zamu iya inganta sababbin jiyya da ke aiki har ma da kyau.

Figure 4.10: Limes na hana magudi da kuma aikin shine bitamin C.

Abin takaici, hanyoyin samar da kayan aiki yana da wuyar gaske. Ba kamar ladabi da lalacewa ba, a yawancin zamantakewar zamantakewa, magunguna zasu iya aiki ta hanyoyi da dama. Duk da haka, a cikin yanayin zamantakewar jama'a da kuma amfani da makamashi, masu bincike sun yi ƙoƙarin ware kayan aiki ta tattara tattara bayanai da kuma gwajin gwaje-gwaje.

Ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin da za a gwada hanyoyin da za a iya yiwuwa shi ne tattara tattara bayanai game da yadda magani ya shafi tasirin da zai yiwu. Alal misali, tuna cewa Allcott (2011) ya nuna cewa Tsaro na Ma'aikatar Tsaro ta sa mutane su rage wutar lantarki. Amma ta yaya wadannan rahotanni suka rage amfani da wutar lantarki? Menene hanyoyin? A cikin binciken da suka biyo baya, Allcott and Rogers (2014) haɗu da wani kamfanin sarrafawa wanda, ta hanyar shirin Allcott and Rogers (2014) , ya sami bayani game da wanda masu amfani suka inganta na'urorin su don inganta tsarin makamashi. Allcott and Rogers (2014) gano cewa mafi yawan mutane da suka karbi Ma'aikatar Harkokin Kasuwanci sun inganta na'urorin su. Amma wannan bambanci ya kasance kadan ne kawai zai iya lissafa kawai 2% na rage yawan amfani da makamashi a cikin gidaje masu kulawa. A takaice dai, haɓaka kayan aiki ba shine hanyar da ta fi dacewa ba ta hanyar Amfani da Harkokin Tsaro na gida ya rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki.

Hanya na biyu don nazarin hanyoyin shine a gudanar da gwaje-gwaje tare da wasu nau'i daban-daban na jiyya. Alal misali, a gwajin Schultz et al. (2007) da kuma duk bayanan Labaran Tsaro na Kasuwancin, an ba da mahalarta magani guda biyu (1) bayani game da tanadin makamashi da kuma (2) bayani game da makamashi don amfani da dangi (adadi 4.6). Sabili da haka, yana yiwuwa yiwuwar samfurin samar da makamashi shine abin da ya haifar da canji, ba bayanin ɗan layi ba. Don tantance yiwuwar cewa tips kawai zasu iya isa, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) haɗu da wani kamfanin ruwa a kusa da Atlanta, Georgia, kuma sunyi kokarin gwajin da ya shafi ruwa akan kimanin kimanin gidaje 100,000. Akwai yanayi hudu:

• wani rukuni wanda ya karbi karin bayani kan ceton ruwa
• wani rukuni wanda ya karbi karin bayani game da ceton ruwa tare da halin kirki na neman ceto ruwa
• wani rukuni wanda ya karbi karin bayani game da adana ruwa da halayyar kirkiro don adana ruwa da bayani game da yadda suke amfani dasu ruwa tare da 'yan uwansu
• ƙungiyar kulawa

Masu binciken sun gano cewa maganin-kawai magani ba shi da tasirin yin amfani da ruwa a cikin ɗan gajeren (shekara daya), matsakaici (shekaru biyu), kuma tsawon lokaci (shekaru uku). Ƙarin bayanan da aka yi da ƙwaƙwalwa sun sa masu zama su rage yawan amfani da ruwa, amma a cikin gajeren lokaci. A ƙarshe, ƙwallafi da ƙwararri da bayani game da ƙwaƙwalwar ƙwaƙwalwa sun haifar da amfani a cikin gajere, matsakaici, da kuma dogon lokaci (adadi 4.11). Wadannan gwaje-gwaje tare da maganin ba tare da izini ba ne hanya mai kyau don gano ko wane ɓangare na jiyya-ko waɗancan sassa sune wadanda ke haifar da sakamako (Gerber and Green 2012, sec. 10.6) . Alal misali, gwajin Ferraro da abokan aiki sun nuna mana cewa samfurin ceto na ruwa bai isa ya rage yawan amfani da ruwa ba.

Figure 4.11: Sakamako daga Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . An aiko da cututtuka ranar 21 ga watan Mayu, 2007, kuma an kiyasta sakamakon da aka yi a lokacin bazarar 2007, 2008, da 2009. Ta hanyar warware matsalar, masu bincike sunyi fatan inganta hanyar da ta dace. Gwaran-kawai magani bai sami sakamako ba a cikin gajeren (shekara guda), matsakaici (shekaru biyu), kuma tsawon lokaci (shekaru uku). Shawarar da ake yi da ƙwaƙwalwa sun sa mahalarta su rage yawan amfani da ruwa, amma a cikin gajeren lokaci. Shawarar da ake kira tare da bayani game da ƙwaƙwalwar ɗan adam ya sa mahalarta su rage yawan amfani da ruwa a cikin gajere, matsakaici, da kuma dogon lokaci. Ana kiyasta sanduna a tsaye da tsaka-tsakin. Duba Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) don ainihin kayan binciken. An samo daga Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) , tebur 1.

Mafi dacewa, wanda zai wuce bayan da aka tsara kayan aiki (tips, tips da roko, ƙwallafi da roƙo tare da bayanin ɗan adam) zuwa cikakken zane-zane-wani lokaci ana kira da \(2^k\) zane-zane-inda kowane haɗin haɗuwa na Ana gwada abubuwa uku (tebur 4.1). Ta hanyar gwada kowane haɗuwa da aka hade, masu bincike zasu iya cikakke cikakkiyar sakamako akan kowane ɓangaren da ke tattare da haɗuwa da haɗuwa. Alal misali, gwajin Ferraro da abokan aiki ba ya bayyana idan yayi kwatancin ɗan adam zai kasance ya isa ya jagoranci canje-canjen lokaci mai tsawo. A baya, wadannan cikakkun zane-zane sun kasance da wuya a gudu saboda suna bukatar yawancin mahalarta kuma suna buƙatar masu bincike su iya sarrafawa daidai da kuma adana magunguna masu yawa. Amma, a wasu lokuta, shekarun dijital ya kawar da waɗannan ƙuntatawa.

A taƙaice, hanyoyin-hanyoyin da magani ke da tasiri-yana da muhimmanci sosai. Ƙwararrun shekaru na gwaje-gwaje na iya taimakawa masu bincike suyi koyi game da hanyoyin da (1) tattara bayanai da kuma (2) samar da cikakkiyar zane-zane. Za a iya gwada hanyoyin da wadannan hanyoyi zasu gwada ta hanyar gwaje-gwaje da aka tsara musamman don gwada hanyoyin (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan ka'idodi guda uku-inganci, bambancin ilimin maganin, da kuma kayan aiki-suna samar da wata mahimmancin ra'ayoyi don tsarawa da fassara. Wadannan ka'idodin na taimaka wa masu bincike su wuce bayan gwaje-gwaje masu sauki game da abin da ke "aiki" don gwaje-gwaje masu kwarewa waɗanda ke da alaka da ka'idar, wanda ya nuna inda kuma me yasa magunguna suke aiki, kuma hakan zai iya taimakawa masu bincike suyi magunguna mafi mahimmanci. Bada wannan batu game da gwaje-gwaje, zan juya yanzu don yadda za ku iya yin gwajin ku.