2.4.2 kiyasin da nowcasting

Tsinkaya a nan gaba da wuya, amma tsinkaya ba da sauki.

Ƙididdiga na biyu da masu bincike zasu iya amfani dashi tare da bayanan kulawa suna bayarwa . Tattaunawa game da makomar yana da wuyar gaske, kuma watakila saboda wannan dalili, bayanin ba a halin yanzu shine babban ɓangare na bincike na zamantakewar al'umma (ko da yake shi dan karami ne mai muhimmanci na tsarin dimokuradiyya, tattalin arziki, annoba da kuma kimiyyar siyasa). A nan, duk da haka, ina so in mayar da hankali kan nau'i na musamman da ake kira yanzucasting - kalmar da aka samo daga haɗin "yanzu" da "tsinkaya." Maimakon yin la'akari da makomar gaba, ƙaddara ƙoƙari don amfani da ra'ayoyin daga tsinkaya don auna ma'auni na yanzu na duniya; yana ƙoƙarin "hango nesa yanzu" (Choi and Varian 2012) . Saukakawa yana da matukar amfani ga gwamnatoci da kamfanonin da ke buƙatar dacewa daidai da matakan duniya.

Ɗaya daga cikin wuri inda ake buƙatar dacewa daidai da cikakken daidai shine bayyanar annoba. Ka yi la'akari da batun cutar (mura). A kowace shekara, annobar cutar tazarar ta haifar da miliyoyin cututtuka da kuma dubban dubban mutuwar a duniya. Bugu da ari, a kowace shekara, akwai yiwuwar wani nau'i na murafi zai iya fitowa da zai kashe miliyoyin. Alal misali, annobar cutar ta 1918, an yi kiyasin cewa sun kashe mutane 50 zuwa 100 (Morens and Fauci 2007) . Saboda buƙatar yin waƙa da kuma yiwuwar amsawa ga annobar annoba, gwamnatoci a duniya sun haifar da tsarin kula da kwayar cutar. Alal misali, Cibiyoyin Kula da Cututtuka na Rarraba da Cututtuka na Amurka (CDC) akai-akai kuma suna tattara bayanai daga likitoci da aka zaɓa a fili a kusa da kasar. Kodayake wannan tsarin yana samar da bayanai mai kyau, yana da lakaran rahoto. Wato, saboda lokacin da ake bukata don samun bayanai daga likitoci don tsaftacewa, sarrafawa, da kuma buga su, tsarin CDC ya ba da kimanin kimanin muradin da aka samu makonni biyu da suka gabata. Amma, lokacin da ake magance annobar da ke faruwa, jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a ba sa so su san yadda cutar ta samu makonni biyu da suka gabata; suna so su san yadda cutar ta samu a yanzu.

A lokaci guda cewa CDC tana tattara bayanai don biyowa cutar, Google yana tara bayanai game da tasirin mura, ko da yake a cikin nau'i daban. Mutane daga ko'ina cikin duniya suna aika tambayoyin zuwa ga Google, da kuma wasu daga cikin waɗannan tambayoyin-irin su "maganin mura" da kuma "alamun wutsiya" -might nuna cewa mutumin da ke yin tambaya yana da mura. Amma, yin amfani da waɗannan tambayoyin nema don kiyasta mummunar fuka ba daidai ba ne: ba duk wanda ke dauke da mura ba yana bincike ne akan cutar, kuma ba duk wani binciken da ya shafi mura ba daga wanda yake da mura.

Jeremy Ginsberg da ƙungiyar abokan aiki (2009) , wasu a Google da wasu a CDC, suna da mahimmanci da basirar tunani don haɗa wadannan tushen bayanai guda biyu. Da wuya, ta hanyar irin labarun almara, masu bincike sun haɗa da bayanai masu bincike da ba daidai ba tare da bayanan CDC mai sauƙi da kuma cikakke don samar da ma'auni da ƙayyadaddun nauyin ginar mura. Wata hanyar da za ta yi tunani game da shi ita ce, sun yi amfani da bayanai don bincika bayanai na CDC.

Bugu da ƙari, ta amfani da bayanai daga 2003 zuwa 2007, Ginsberg da abokan aiki sun kiyasta dangantakar da ke tsakanin kwarjini na mura a cikin CDC bayanai da kuma ƙididdigar harshe na kimanin miliyan 50. Daga wannan tsari, wanda aka kware gaba daya kuma bai buƙatar ilimin likita ba, masu bincike sun sami jerin tambayoyin 45 da suka kasance kamar yadda ya fi dacewa da bayanai na CDC. Bayan haka, ta hanyar amfani da dangantaka da suka koya daga bayanan 2003-2007, Ginsberg da abokan aiki sun gwada samfurin su a lokacin kakar barazanar 2007-2008. Sun gano cewa hanyoyin da zasu iya amfani da su a yanzu (adadi 2.6). An buga wadannan sakamakon a cikin yanayi kuma sun sami tallafin labaran labaran. Wannan aikin-wanda ake kira Google Flu Trends-ya zama misali mai maimaitawa game da ikon manyan bayanai don canza duniya.

Figure 2.6: Jeremy Ginsberg da abokan aiki (2009) sun haɗa bayanan bincike na Google tare da bayanai na CDC don ƙirƙirar Google Flu Trends, wanda zai iya yaduwar cutar rashin lafiya kamar yadda cutar ta kamu (ILI). Sakamako a cikin wannan adadi ne na tsakiyar yankin Atlantique na Amurka a cikin shekara ta 2007. Kodayake shi ne farkon alkawari sosai, aikin Google Flu Trends ya ɓace a lokacin (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013; Lazer et al. 2014) . An sauya daga Ginsberg et al. (2009) , adadi na 3.

Duk da haka, wannan labarin nasara ya zama abin kunya. Yawancin lokaci, masu bincike sun gano iyakokin muhimman abubuwa guda biyu da suka sa Google Flu Trends ba ta da ban sha'awa fiye da yadda ya fara. Da farko dai, aikin Google Flu Trends ba shi da kyau fiye da yadda aka samo asali wanda ya kiyasta yawan gluwar da aka danganta da haɓakar linzaminar daga jerin sifofin biyu na gubar da jini (Goel et al. 2010) . Kuma, a wasu lokuta, Google Flu Trends ya kasance mafi muni fiye da wannan hanya mai sauki (Lazer et al. 2014) . A wasu kalmomi, Google Flu Trends tare da duk bayanansa, ilmantarwa na injiniya, da kuma ƙwarewar komputa ba ta ƙara fahimtar wani sauƙi mai sauki da sauƙi ba. Wannan yana nuna cewa a yayin da aka kimanta kowane hangen nesa ko yanzucast, yana da muhimmanci a kwatanta da wani asali.

Abu na biyu mai muhimmanci game da Google Flu Trends shi ne cewa ikon yin hangen nesa da CDC mura bayanai ya kasance mai yiwuwa ga gajeren lokaci gazawar da lalacewar dadewa saboda tashin hankali da algorithmic rikicewa . Alal misali, a lokacin yaduwar cutar Swine na 2009 da cutar Google ta shawo kan yawan cutar, watakila saboda mutane suna canza yanayin binciken su saboda karuwar rashin lafiyar duniya (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Bugu da ƙari ga waɗannan matsaloli na gajeren lokaci, wasan kwaikwayo ya ɓace a lokacin lokaci. Bincike dalilai na wannan lalacewa na tsawon lokaci yana da wuyar gaske saboda algorithms na bincike na Google sun kasance abin ƙyama, amma yana nuna cewa a 2011 Google ya fara bayar da shawara game da bincike lokacin da mutane ke nema su bayyanar cututtuka irin su "zazzabi" da "tari" (shi ma ya nuna cewa wannan alama ba ta aiki ba). Ƙara wannan siffar abu ne mai mahimmanci don yin idan kuna aiki da injiniyar bincike, amma wannan canji na algorithmic yana da tasiri na samar da ƙarin binciken bincike na kiwon lafiya wanda ya haifar da Google Flu Trends don rage yawan fuka (Lazer et al. 2014) .

Wadannan wurare guda biyu suna fama da kokarin da ake yi a yanzu, amma ba zasu hallaka su ba. A gaskiya, ta hanyar yin amfani da hanyoyi mafi kyau, Lazer et al. (2014) da Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) sun iya guje wa waɗannan matsalolin biyu. Idan muka ci gaba, Ina tsammanin samar da binciken da ya haɗa manyan asusun bayanai tare da bincike - tattara bayanai zasu taimaka wa kamfanoni da gwamnatoci su kirkiro mafi dacewa da kuma mafi dacewa ta yadda za a sauke kowane ma'ana da aka yi akai-akai a cikin lokaci tare da wasu lag. Ayyukan ba da ladabi irin su Google Flu Trends sun nuna abin da zai faru idan manyan haɗin bayanan sun haɗu tare da bayanan gargajiya waɗanda aka halicce su don manufar bincike. Tunanin tunani na fasaha na babi na 1, yanzu yana da damar haɗuwa da shirye-shirye na Duchamp tare da al'adun Michelangelo-style don samar da masu yanke shawara tare da mafi dacewa da kuma dacewa daidai da yanzu da kuma tsinkaya na nan gaba.