3.4 Wanda ya tambayi

Yau na dijital yana sa samfurin samfur a cikin aiki ya fi ƙarfin kuma yana samar da sababbin damar don samfurin samfur.

A cikin tarihin samfurin, akwai matakai guda biyu: watau samfurin samfurin da samfurin samfurin samfurori. Kodayake ana amfani da hanyoyi guda biyu a farkon samfurin samfurin, samfurin samfurin ya zama rinjaye, kuma ana nazarin yawan masu bincike na zamantakewa don duba samfurin samfurin da ba tare da wata shakka ba. Duk da haka, kamar yadda zan bayyana a kasa, canje-canje da aka tsara ta hanyar zamani yana nufin lokaci ne don masu bincike su sake yin la'akari da samfurin samfur. Musamman ma, samfurin samfur yana da wuya a yi aiki, kuma samfurin samfuri yana samun sauri, mai rahusa, kuma mafi kyau. Sakamakon bincike mai yawa da mai rahusa ba kawai sun ƙare ba ne kawai: suna ba da sababbin dama kamar su binciken da yawa da kuma manyan samfurin samfurin. Alal misali, ta amfani da hanyoyi marasa yiwuwar binciken Nazarin Kasa na Kasuwanci (CCES) zai iya samun fiye da sau 10 more mahalarta fiye da nazarin baya da amfani da samfurin yiwuwa. Wannan samfurin ya fi girma ya sa masu bincike na siyasa suyi nazarin bambancin hali da hali a tsakanin bangarori biyu da zamantakewar al'umma. Bugu da ari, duk wannan ƙaramin sikelin ya zo ba tare da ragewa a cikin ingancin kimantawa (Ansolabehere and Rivers 2013) .

A halin yanzu, mafi kyawun tsarin kula da samfurin bincike na zamantakewa shine samfurin samfur . A yiwuwar samfurin, dukan mambobi ne na ƙirar suna da sananne, rashin yiwuwar samun samfurin, kuma duk mutanen da aka samo sun amsa wannan bincike. Lokacin da aka cika wadannan yanayi, sakamakon binciken ilmin lissafi yana ba da tabbacin tabbatarwa game da ikon mai bincike na amfani da samfurin don yin bayani akan yawan mutane.

A cikin duniyar duniyar, duk da haka, yanayin da ya fi dacewa da wadannan ilimin lissafi sunyi wuya. Alal misali, akwai lokuta masu ɗaukar hoto da rashin amsawa. Saboda wadannan matsalolin, masu bincike sukan yi amfani da su da dama don daidaitawa daga samfurin su zuwa ga yawan mutane. Saboda haka, yana da mahimmanci a rarrabe tsakanin samfurin samfur a cikin ka'idar , wanda yake da karfi da tabbaci, da samfurin samfur a cikin aiki , wanda ba shi da tabbacin kuma yana dogara ne akan wasu matakan gyarawa.

A tsawon lokaci, bambance-bambance tsakanin yiwuwar samfur a cikin ka'idar da yiwuwar samfurin samfur a cikin aiki an karuwa. Alal misali, yawancin ba da amsa ba sun karu, har ma a cikin inganci, masu bincike na tsada (adadi na 3.5) (National Research Council 2013; BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Sakamakon rashin amsawa ya fi girma a cikin binciken bincike na tarho-wani lokacin har ma da kashi 90% (Kohut et al. 2012) . Wadannan ƙari a cikin rashin amsa suna barazanar ƙimar ƙididdiga saboda ƙididdigar sun dogara ne akan samfurin lissafi waɗanda masu bincike suke amfani da su don daidaitawa don rashin amsawa. Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan haɓaka a cikin ingancin sun faru duk da kokarin da masu tsinkaya suka yi na tsada don tsayar da haɓakar da aka yi. Wasu mutane suna jin tsoron cewa wadannan nau'i biyu na rage yawan inganci da kuma karuwar farashi suna barazana ga asalin nazarin bincike (National Research Council 2013) .

Hoto na 3.5: An ba da amsa gamsuwanci, koda a cikin bincike masu tsada mai tsada (National Research Council 2013; BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Hanyoyin ba da amsa ba sun fi girma ga binciken wayar salula, wasu lokuta har zuwa 90% (Kohut et al. 2012) . Wadannan hanyoyi na dogon lokaci a cikin rashin amsawa suna nufin tarin tattara bayanai ya fi tsada kuma kimantawa ba su da amintacce. An sauya daga BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan (2015) , adadi 1.

A lokaci guda da cewa akwai matsaloli masu yawa na yiwuwar samfurin samfurori, akwai abubuwan da suka faru na ban sha'awa a cikin samfurori na samfurori marasa yiwuwa . Akwai hanyoyi iri-iri da ba'a yiwu ba samfurorin samfurin, amma abu ɗaya da suke da ita shi ne cewa ba za su iya shiga cikin tsarin lissafi na samfurin samfur ba (Baker et al. 2013) . A wasu kalmomi, a cikin samfurori na samfurori ba yiwuwar ba kowa ba yana da yiwuwar hadawa. Hanyar samfurin samfuri ba ta da mummunar suna a cikin masu bincike na zamantakewar al'umma kuma suna haɗuwa da wasu daga cikin manyan masanan binciken masu bincike, irin su Literary Digest fiasco (aka tattauna a baya) da "Dewey Defeats Truman," wanda ba daidai ba ne game da Amurka. zaben shugaban kasa na 1948 (adadi 3.6).

Figure 3.6: Shugaban kasar Harry Truman ya rike mukamin jaridar jarida wadda ta bayyana rashin nasararsa. Wannan labari ya samo asali ne daga ƙididdiga daga samfurori marasa yiwuwa (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) . Kodayake "Dewey Defey Truman" ya faru a 1948, har yanzu yana cikin dalilin da cewa wasu masu bincike basu da shakka game da kimantawa daga samfurori marasa yiwuwa. Source: Harry S. Truman Library & Museum .

Ɗaya daga cikin nau'i na samfurin samfurin da ba'a dace da shi ba shine lokacin amfani da layi na kan layi . Masu bincike da suke amfani da bangarori na kan layi suna dogara ne akan wasu masu bada labarun-yawanci wani kamfani, gwamnati, ko jami'a - don gina babban ƙungiya na mutane waɗanda suka yarda su zama masu amsa don binciken. Wadannan mahalarta taron na sau da yawa suna amfani da su ta hanyar amfani da hanyoyi daban-daban irin su talla na banner na kan layi. Bayan haka, mai bincike zai iya biyan mai bada lamuni don samun dama ga samfurin masu amsawa tare da siffofin da ake so (misali, wakilin kasa na manya). Wadannan bangarori na kan layi ba su da matakan yiwuwa ba saboda ba kowa ba ne da aka sani, mai yiwuwa ba tare da yiwuwar hadawa ba. Kodayake masu amfani da labaran yanar gizon ba su da amfani ba a yau suna amfani da su a yau (misali, CCES), akwai sauran muhawara game da ingancin kimantawa da suka zo daga gare su (Callegaro et al. 2014) .

Duk da wadannan muhawarar, ina tsammanin akwai dalilai guda biyu da ya sa lokaci ya dace ga masu bincike na zamantakewa su sake yin la'akari da samfurin samfuri. Na farko, a cikin shekarun dijital, akwai abubuwa masu yawa a cikin tarin da bincike na samfurori marasa yiwuwa. Wadannan sababbin hanyoyi sun bambanta sosai daga hanyoyin da suka haifar da matsalolin da suka gabata da ina tsammanin yana da mahimmanci a yi la'akari da su a matsayin "samfurin samfurin 2.0". Dalili na biyu da ya sa masu bincike suyi nazarin samfurin samfuri ba saboda yiwuwar samfur a Ayyukan suna ƙara wahala. Idan akwai yawan kudaden da ba a mayar da martani ba - kamar yadda akwai saitunan gaske a yanzu-ainihin yiwuwar hadawa ga masu amsawa ba a san su ba, kuma saboda haka, samfurori masu yiwuwa da samfurori marasa yiwuwa ba su da bambanci kamar yadda masu bincike suka yi imani.

Kamar yadda na fada a baya, yawancin masu bincike na zamantakewa suna kallon samfuran samfurori da yawancin kullun, saboda rawar da suke takawa a wasu daga cikin mafi girman kunya a farkon farkon bincike. Wani misali mai kyau na yadda muka zo tare da samfurori marasa yiwuwa shine binciken da Wei Wang, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, da kuma Andrew Gelman (2015) tabbatar da sakamakon zaben da aka yi a shekarar 2012 ta hanyar amfani da samfurin da ba a yiwu ba. Masu amfani da Xbox na Amurka - wani samfurin Amurkawa wanda bai dace ba. Masu bincike sun tattara masu amsa daga tsarin wasan kwaikwayon na XBox, kuma kamar yadda za ku iya tsammanin, samfurin Xbox da aka yi wa mata da yara masu skewed: matasa 18 zuwa 29 suna da kashi 19 cikin 100 na masu za ~ e amma 65% na samfurin Xbox, da maza Ya zama 47% na masu jefa kuri'a amma 93% na samfurin Xbox (adadi 3.7). Saboda wadannan maƙasudin tarihin jama'a, ainihin bayanan Xbox ya nuna alamar rashin komawa na zaben. Ya yi annabci ga nasara ga Mitt Romney a kan Barack Obama. Bugu da ƙari, wannan wani misali ne na ƙananan haɗari na ƙananan, marasa dacewa wadanda ba samfurori ba samfurori kuma suna tunawa da Literary Digest fiasco.

Figure 3.7: Halittar masu sauraro a cikin W. Wang et al. (2015) . Saboda ana karban masu amsa daga XBox, sun kasance mafi girma kuma sun fi zama dan namiji, dangi da masu jefa kuri'a a zaben 2012. Ada daga W. Wang et al. (2015) , adadi 1.

Duk da haka, Wang da abokan aiki suna sane da waɗannan matsalolin kuma suna ƙoƙarin daidaitawa game da samfurin samfurori da ba su samo asali ba yayin da suke yin kimantawa. Musamman ma, sun yi amfani da lalatawa , dabarar da ake amfani dasu don daidaita samfurori na samuwa wanda ke dauke da kurakurai da rashin amsawa.

Babbar mahimmanci na post-stratification shine amfani da ƙarin bayani game da yawan mutane don taimakawa wajen inganta ƙididdiga wanda ya zo daga samfurin. Yayin da aka yi amfani da bayanan da aka tsara don yin kimantawa daga samfurin su ba tare da yiwuwar ba, Wang da abokin aiki suka yanki mutane zuwa kungiyoyi daban-daban, suka kiyasta goyon baya ga Obama a kowane rukuni, sannan kuma ya dauki nauyin ma'auni na rukunin kungiyar don samar da cikakken kimantawa. Alal misali, sun iya raba al'umma zuwa kungiyoyi biyu (maza da mata), sun kiyasta goyon baya ga Obama a tsakanin maza da mata, sannan kuma suka kiyasta goyon baya ga Obama ta hanyar daukar nauyin ma'auni don gane gaskiyar cewa mata sama da kashi 53 cikin 100 na masu jefa kuri'a da maza 47%. Abin takaici, ƙaddamarwa na taimakawa daidai ga samfurin da ba a samuwa ba ta hanyar kawo ƙarin bayani game da girman girman kungiyoyin.

Makullin gabatarwa ita ce ta samar da ƙungiyoyi masu kyau. Idan za ku iya share yawan jama'a a cikin kungiyoyi masu kama da irin wannan karfin da aka mayar da su daidai yake ga kowa da kowa a cikin rukuni, to, zartar da zartarwar zata haifar da kimantawa. A wasu kalmomi, zubar da hankali ta hanyar jinsi zai haifar da kimantawa ba tare da bambancewa ba idan duk maza suna da karfin amsawa kuma duk mata suna da nauyin haɓaka. Wannan zato shine ake kira jinsin kama-da-amsa-haɓaka-cikin kungiyoyi , kuma na bayyana shi kadan a cikin bayanin ilimin lissafi a ƙarshen wannan babi.

Tabbas, yana da alama cewa samfurori na mayar da martani zai kasance daidai ga kowa da maza. Duk da haka, halayen-haɓaka-haɓaka-ƙaddara-cikin kungiyoyi sun zama mafi mahimmanci kamar yadda yawan ƙungiyoyi ke ƙaruwa. Da wuya, ya zama mafi sauƙi don tsoma jama'a a cikin kungiyoyi masu kama da kun ƙirƙiri kungiyoyi. Alal misali, yana iya zama mai ban mamaki cewa dukan mata suna da irin wannan karɓa, amma yana iya zama mafi alheri cewa akwai irin wannan amsa ga dukan matan da ke da shekaru 18-29, waɗanda suka sauke karatu daga koleji, kuma waɗanda ke zaune a California . Saboda haka, kamar yadda yawan kungiyoyi da aka yi amfani da su a bayan ƙaddamarwa sun fi girma, ra'ayi da ake buƙata don tallafawa hanya ya zama mafi dacewa. Da aka ba wannan hujja, masu bincike suna so su kirkiro ƙungiyoyi masu yawa don matsin lamba. Duk da haka, yayin da yawan ƙungiyoyi suka ƙaru, masu bincike sun shiga wani matsala daban-daban: fassarar bayanai. Idan akwai ƙananan yawan mutane a cikin kowane rukuni, to, zakka za su kasance mafi tabbas, kuma a cikin mummunar yanayin inda akwai ƙungiya wanda ba shi da amsa, to, tsattsauran ra'ayi ya rushe.

Akwai hanyoyi biyu daga wannan rikice-rikice masu rikitarwa tsakanin nauyin da ke tattare da haɓaka-haɓaka-haɓaka-ƙwaƙwalwa tsakanin kungiyoyi da kuma buƙatar samfuran samfurori masu kyau a kowane rukuni. Na farko, masu bincike zasu iya tara mafi girma, karin samfurori daban-daban, wanda ke taimakawa wajen tabbatar da samfurin samfurori a kowane rukuni. Na biyu, za su iya amfani da samfurin lissafi mafi mahimmanci don yin ƙididdiga a cikin kungiyoyi. Kuma, a gaskiya ma, wani lokacin masu binciken sun yi duka, kamar yadda Wang da abokan aiki suka yi, game da nazarin za ~ en, ta amfani da masu sauraron Xbox.

Domin suna amfani da hanyar samfurin ba tare da yiwuwar yin amfani da kwamfuta ba (zan yi magana game da tambayoyin da aka gudanar da kwamfuta a sashe na 3.5), Wang da abokan aiki sun samo tarin tattara bayanai, wanda ya ba su damar tattara bayanai daga mutane 345,858 , babban lamuni ta hanyar zaben zabe. Wannan samfurin samfurori ya taimaka musu su samar da wata babbar ƙungiya ta ƙungiyoyi. Kodayake rikice-rikice yawanci ya sa mutane su shiga daruruwan kungiyoyi, Wang da abokan aiki suka raba yawan jama'a zuwa ƙungiyoyi 176,256 da aka tsara ta hanyar jinsi (2 Kategorien), tseren (4 Categories), shekaru (4 Categories), ilimi (4 Categories), jihar (51 Kategorien), ID na ƙungiya (3 Kategorien), akidar (3 Kategorien), da kuma zabe na 2008 (3 Kategorien). A wasu kalmomi, yawan girman samfurin su, wanda aka sanya ta hanyar adana bayanai, ya ba su damar sanya ra'ayi mafi mahimmanci cikin tsarin ƙididdigarsu.

Ko da tare da masu halartar taron musamman na 345,858, duk da haka, akwai sauran kungiyoyi da yawa, wadanda Wang da abokan aiki basu da kusan masu amsawa. Saboda haka, sun yi amfani da fasaha da ake kira rikodin nau'in juyawa don kimanta goyon baya a kowane rukuni. Ainihin, don ƙaddamar da goyon baya ga Obama a cikin wani rukuni na musamman, ƙididdigar rikice-rikice da yawa daga ƙungiyoyi masu dangantaka da yawa. Alal misali, zakuyi tunanin ƙoƙarin kwatanta goyon baya ga Obama a tsakanin 'yan asalin' yan mata tsakanin shekarun 18 zuwa 29, wadanda ke da digiri na kwalejin, wadanda suka yi rajistar Democrat, wadanda suka nuna kansu a matsayin matsakaici, kuma suka zabe Obama a shekara ta 2008. , ƙungiyar musamman, kuma yana yiwuwa cewa babu wani a cikin samfurin tare da waɗannan halaye. Saboda haka, don yin kimantawa game da wannan rukuni, rikitarwa da yawa ya yi amfani da samfurin lissafi don haɗuwa tare da kimantawa daga mutane a cikin kungiyoyi masu kama da juna.

Saboda haka, Wang da abokan aiki sunyi amfani da wani tsarin da ya hada da rikici da lalacewa da yawa, saboda haka sun kira dabarun da suke yi tare da tsoma baki ko kuma mafi ƙauna, "Mr. P. "Lokacin da Wang da abokan aiki sunyi amfani da Mista P. don yin kimantawa daga samfurin XBox wanda bai yiwu ba, sun samar da kimanin kusan kusan duk goyon baya da Obama ya samu a zaben 2012 (adadi 3.8). A hakikanin gaskiyar su sun fi dacewa fiye da yadda aka samu ra'ayoyin ra'ayoyin jama'a na gargajiya. Saboda haka, a wannan yanayin, gyaran-gyare-gyare na musamman-musamman ma Mr. P.-yana nufin ya yi aiki mai kyau da ya gyara abubuwan da ba'a so a cikin bayanai marasa yiwuwa; wadanda ba a san su a bayyane ba idan ka dubi kimantawa daga bayanan Xbox ba a gyara ba.

Figure 3.8: Bayani daga W. Wang et al. (2015) . Sakamakon gyare-gyare na XBox ya samar da kimantaccen ƙidayar. Amma, samfurin XBox mai nauyin ya samo asali waɗanda suka fi dacewa fiye da yadda yawancin binciken binciken wayar tarho suke. Ada daga W. Wang et al. (2015) , Figures 2 da 3.

Akwai dalilai guda biyu daga nazarin Wang da abokan aiki. Na farko, samfurori marasa dacewa samfurori na iya haifar da mummunan kimantawa; wannan darasi ne da yawancin masu bincike suka ji a baya. Darasi na biyu, duk da haka, shi ne cewa samfurori marasa yiwuwar, lokacin da aka bincika yadda ya kamata, zai iya samar da kyakkyawan kimantaccen; marasa yiwuwar samfurori bazai buƙaci kai tsaye ga wani abu kamar Literary Digest fiasco.

Gudurawa, idan kuna ƙoƙarin yin hukunci tsakanin amfani da samfurin samfurin samfurin yiwuwa da kuma samfurin samfurin samfurin da ba a yiwu ba ku fuskanci wata matsala mai wuya. Wani lokaci masu bincike suna so tsarin mulki mai sauri (misali, koyaushe amfani da samfurin samfuri), amma yana da wuya a bayar da irin wannan doka. Masu bincike suna fuskantar wani zaɓi mai wuya tsakanin yiwuwar samfurin samfurori a aikin-waxanda suke da tsada sosai kuma suna da nisa daga sakamakon binciken da suka tabbatar da amfani da su-da kuma yiwuwar samfurin samfurori-waxanda suke da rahusa da sauri, amma basu da sabawa kuma sunada bambanta. Abu daya da yake bayyana shi ne cewa idan an tilasta ka yi aiki tare da samfurori marasa yiwuwar ko manyan bayanan mai ban mamaki (tunani a baya na Babi na 2), to, akwai dalili mai dalili na gaskanta cewa an yi kiyasta ta hanyar yin amfani da bayanan bayanan. dabarun da suka dace za su fi yadda ba a gyara ba, ƙididdiga masu kyau.