3.3.1 wakilci

Misali ne game da yin inferences daga weights to your manufa yawan.

Domin fahimtar irin kurakuran da za su iya faruwa a lokacin da suka ba da amsa daga masu amsawa zuwa ga mafi girma yawan jama'a, bari muyi la'akari da yadda za mu yi la'akari da sakamakon wallafe-wallafen wallafe-wallafe na wallafe-wallafen wallafe-wallafe wanda yayi ƙoƙari ya hango ƙarshen zaben shugaban kasa na 1936. Kodayake ya faru fiye da shekaru 75 da suka wuce, wannan zane-zane yana da muhimmin darasi don koyar da masu bincike a yau.

Littafin wallafe-wallafen wata wallafe-wallafe ne mai ban sha'awa, kuma tun daga farkon 1920, sun fara gudanar da za ~ e, don yin la'akari da sakamakon za ~ en shugaban} asa. Don yin wannan tsinkaya, za su aika da kuri'un kuri'un zuwa kuri'a da yawa daga mutane sannan sannan su sake fito da kuri'un da aka dawo; Littafin wallafe-wallafen wallafe-wallafen ya nuna alfaharin cewa za ~ en da aka samu bai "daidaita, gyara ba, kuma ba a fassara ba." Wannan hanya ya yi annabta ga masu nasara na za ~ u ~~ ukan 1920, 1924, 1928 da 1932. A 1936, a tsakiyar Babban Mawuyacin, wallafe-wallafe Digest ta aika wa mutane miliyan 10 masu jefa kuri'a, sunayensu sun fito ne daga gidajen kundin waya da takardun rajista. A nan ne yadda suke bayyana hanyar su:

"Gidan mai laushi mai kayatarwa yana motsawa tare da saurin saurin shekaru talatin don rage yawan kayan aiki ga abubuwa masu ban mamaki ... A wannan makon kamfanonin 500 sun fitar da fiye da kashi ɗaya cikin dari na miliyoyin adresai a rana. Kowace rana, a cikin babban dakin da ke sama da Hudu na Hudu na Quath, a Birnin New York, ma'aikata 400 sun zame miliyoyin nau'i-nau'i-nau'i-nau'in da za a iya kwashe garuruwan gari guda arba'in-a cikin adreshin da ake rubutu. Kowace awa, a cikin Sashin Gidan Wuta ta DIGEST'S, ƙananan na'urori masu aikawa da sakonni guda uku sun ɗora suna kuma sun kulla kyan fari; ma'aikatan gidan labaran da aka sani sun jefa su a cikin wasikun gidan waya; Rundunar jiragen ruwa DIGEST ta tura su don bayyana sakonnin imel. . . Kashe na gaba, amsoshin farko daga wadannan miliyan goma zasu fara ne a cikin jerin sunayen da aka zaba, don sau uku, an tabbatar da shi, sau biyar a gicciye da kuma tayi. Lokacin da aka ƙayyade adadi na ƙarshe da kuma duba, idan kwarewar da ta gabata ta kasance wani ma'auni, kasar za ta san a cikin kashi ɗaya daga kashi 1 cikin dari na ainihin kuri'un da aka kada kuri'un masu jefa kuri'a miliyan arba'in. "(Agusta 22, 1936)

Girman tarin yawa na wallafe-wallafe na wallafe-wallafen shine yanzu ganewa ga kowane mai binciken "babban bayanai" a yau. Daga cikin kuri'u miliyan 10 da aka rarraba, an sake dawowa da miliyon 2.4 - wanda ya fi sau dubu 1,000 ya fi girma a zaben siyasa na yau. Daga wadannan mutane miliyan 2.4, hukuncin ya bayyana: Alf Landon zai ci nasara da Franklin Roosevelt. Amma, a gaskiya, Roosevelt ta ci Landon a cikin raguwa. Ta yaya fassarar wallafe-wallafen ba zai iya kuskure ba tare da yawan bayanai? Abinda muka fahimta game da samfurin samfurin ya sa rubuce-rubuce na Literary Digest ya bayyana kuma yana taimaka mana mu guje wa kuskuren nan a nan gaba.

Yin tunani game da samfur yana buƙatar mu bincika ƙungiyoyi huɗun mutane (adadi na 3.2). Ƙungiyar farko ita ce yawan mutane ; wannan shine rukunin da mai bincike ya fassara a matsayin yawancin sha'awa. A game da wallafe-wallafe na wallafe-wallafe , yawancin mutane masu jefa kuri'a ne a zaben shugaban kasa na 1936.

Bayan yanke shawara a kan yawan mutane, mai bincike ya buƙaci samar da jerin mutanen da za a iya amfani dashi don samfur. Wannan jerin ake kira mai daukan samfur firam da mutane a kan shi ake kira da firam yawan jama'a. Ainihin, yawancin mutane da kuma ƙirar jama'a za su kasance daidai, amma a aikace wannan ba sau da yawa ba ne. Alal misali, a cikin yanayin wallafe-wallafen wallafen wallafe-wallafen , ƙididdigar jama'a ita ce mutane miliyan 10 wadanda sunayensu suka fito ne daga gidajen kundin waya da takardun rajista. Differences tsakanin manufa da yawan jama'a da kuma ƙirar suna da ake kira ɗaukar hoto . Kuskuren cave ba, ta kanta, yana tabbatar da matsaloli ba. Duk da haka, zai iya haifar da nuna bambanci idan mutane a cikin ƙananan jama'a ba su da bambanci daban-daban daga mutanen da ke cikin yawan mutanen da ba su cikin yawan mutane. Wannan, a gaskiya, daidai ne abin da ya faru a cikin wallafe-wallafe na wallafe-wallafe . Mutanen da ke cikin yankunansu suna iya taimakawa Alf Landon a wani ɓangare saboda sun kasance masu arziki (tuna cewa duka wayar da motoci sun kasance da sababbin kuma tsada a 1936). Saboda haka, a cikin wallafe-wallafe na wallafe-wallafen wallafen wallafe-wallafen , kuskuren ɓataccen abu ya haifar da ɗaukar hoto

Figure 3.2: Ƙungiyoyin wakilan.

Bayan ƙaddamar da yawan ƙirar, yawan mataki na gaba shine mai bincike ya zaɓi yawan samfurin ; Waɗannan su ne mutanen da mai bincike zai yi ƙoƙarin yin tambayoyi. Idan samfurin yana da halaye daban-daban fiye da fadin yawan jama'a, to samfurin zai iya gabatar da kuskuren samfurin . A game da Literary Digest fiasco, duk da haka, babu shakka babu wani samfurin-mujallar ta tuntubi kowa da kowa a cikin harsashin-saboda haka babu kuskuren samfurin. Mutane da yawa masu bincike sun fi mayar da hankali ga kuskuren samfurin-wannan shi ne yawancin kuskuren da aka sace ta hanyar ɓangaren kuskure da aka ruwaito a cikin bincike-amma Literary Digest fiasco yana tunatar da mu cewa muna bukatar muyi la'akari da duk matakai na kuskure, duka bazuwar da kuma tsaftacewa.

A ƙarshe, bayan zabar samfurin samfurin, mai bincike yayi ƙoƙarin yin tambayoyi da dukan mambobinsa. Wadannan mutanen da aka samu nasarar gudanar da tambayoyin ana kiransu masu amsawa . Da mahimmanci, yawan samfurin da masu amsawa zasu kasance daidai, amma a aikace babu amsa. Wato, mutanen da aka zaba a cikin samfurin wani lokaci basu shiga. Idan mutanen da suka amsa ba su da bambanci daga waɗanda ba su amsa ba, to, ba za a iya nuna rashin amincewarsu ba . Abinda ba a mayar da martani ba shine babbar matsala ta biyu da zabe na Literary Digest . Sai kawai 24% na mutanen da suka karbi kuri'un sun amsa, kuma ya bayyana cewa mutanen da suka goyi bayan Landon sun fi dacewa su amsa.

Baya ga misali kawai don gabatar da ra'ayoyi na wakilci, wallafe-wallafen wallafen wallafe-wallafen wata maimaitaccen misali, yana gargadi masu bincike game da haɗari na samfurin hazard. Abin takaici, Ina tsammanin darasin da mutane da yawa suka samo daga wannan labarin shine kuskure. Halin halin da ake ciki na yau da kullum shi ne cewa masu bincike ba za su iya koyon wani abu daga samfurori marasa yiwuwa (watau, samfurori ba tare da dokoki masu yiwuwa ba don zaɓar mahalarta). Amma, kamar yadda zan nuna a baya a cikin wannan babi, wannan ba gaskiya bane. Maimakon haka, ina tsammanin akwai halin kirki biyu na wannan labarin; halin kirki da suke da gaskiya a yau kamar yadda suke a 1936. Na farko, yawancin bayanai da aka tattara ba tare da tabbacin ƙayyadadden ƙididdiga ba. Gaba ɗaya, samun yawan adadin masu amsawa yana rage bambancin ƙididdigar, amma ba dole ba ya rage girman kai. Tare da kuri'a na bayanai, masu bincike na iya samun lokuta daidai na abu mara kyau; suna iya zama daidai daidai (McFarland and McFarland 2015) . Darasi na biyu daga Literary Digest fiasco shi ne cewa masu bincike sun buƙaci yadda aka tattara samfurin su lokacin yin kimantawa. A wasu kalmomi, saboda samfurin samfur a cikin wallafe-wallafen wallafe-wallafen na wallafe-wallafen an yi amfani da shi ga wasu masu amsawa, masu bincike sun buƙaci amfani da tsarin ƙididdiga mafi mahimmanci wanda ya rage wasu masu amsa fiye da sauran. Daga baya a cikin wannan babi, zan nuna muku wani irin wannan nauyin nauyi - zartarwa-wanda zai iya ba ku damar yin ƙididdiga mafi kyau daga samfurori mai haɗari.